Cross Cutting Issues: An Australian Perspective Neil Ferry Manager, Projections AGO

Australian Emissions Projections: Key Features Multi models for key sectors Inter agency process and wide consultation BAU (NM) for most sectors measures increasingly incorporated in models Scenario based approach to uncertainty.

Multi model approach Diversity of inputs, especially in Stationary Energy sector (four models currently) –Overall 10 modelling groups in 2003 projections –Mix of bottom up and top down models –Land use change estimated in house by National Carbon Accounting System

Diversity in 2003 SE Projection

Multi model approach Diversity of views, reflecting uncertainty –Focus on ‘conscious diversity’ Reconciling different models results issue 2004 focus on key drivers and explaining projection differences Impact of changing models

Wide Stakeholder Involvement Inter Agency committee oversights projections prepared by AGO Consultation with industry and states Multi models promote input diversity

Aust Projections Scenarios With Measures (Best Estimate) -High and Low scenarios for sectors BAU (NM) for most sectors No WAM

BAU (NM) Issue ‘Only 9 countries report (full) NM/BAU’ –‘many parties provide NM for CO2 for energy’ (OECD) Key issue is‘modelling the effect of measures on emissions’ Moving to integrate measures more into modelling

Modelling measures Until 2004, SE modellers only included BAU/NM and a few measures –WM was produced by separately adjusting for measures estimates –Measures defined as post 1990 greenhouse related policies Moving to integrate separate measures estimates with full ‘with measures’ energy modelling

Measures issues Estimating measures impact difficult Adjusting ‘initial measures optimism’ Interactions between new and old measures –And different jurisdictions Multi-models makes estimating measures harder Continuous improvement to measures and projections

Policy modelling Generally done separately, though with same models –ABARE’s GTEM, MSG’s G CUBED Different models, different impacts Integration with existing measures

Uncertainty Emphasis on plausible ‘High-Low scenarios –understanding ‘what ifs’ rather than Monte Carlo approach –Link to Key Driver analysis and understanding differences between model projections.

Aust Projections Products ‘Tracking to the Kyoto Target 2003’ -plus sectoral projections papers At: ex.htmlhttp:// ex.html