Observational Gaps In the Atmospheric Sciences Enabling and enhancing roles for Autonomous Aerial Observation Systems

Introduction Workshop was held in October 2003 to begin process of identifying significant atmospheric, oceanographic and terrestrial science questions and high societal impact issues that are not adequately (nor at all) addressed due to gaps in our observing systems. More specifically, the task was to identify observing system gaps best met with AAOSs Agreed that identification of AAOS target science questions should be consistent with the ESEs 23 questions and the associated roadmaps.

Major gaps in current atmospheric observing systems Impediments related to satellite based observations: –Clouds obscure many processes critical to understanding forcing/response –Temporal coverage from LEO systems not suited for most <mesoscale investigations –Spatial resolution from GEO not adequate for most process studies Impediments related to current airborne systems –Need persistent (and at times) Lagrangian observations before, during and after episodic events to understand forcing and feedbacks –Observations from distant ocean areas hard to achieve in a persistent or adaptive targeting manner –Stratospheric/tropospheric interface infrequently visited

Relevant ESE focus areas Climate variability and change Weather Atmospheric composition Water and energy cycles Carbon cycle and ecosystems

Atmospheric Observing System Gap Topics Life-cycles of tropical and severe storms (hurricanes in particular) Lagrangian studies of air parcel chemistry, thermodynamics and dynamics (long endurance) Adaptive targeting of observations needed for operational weather forecasting (rapid response/low cost) Stratospheric/tropospheric exchange (long endurance)

Life-cycle of tropical and severe storms (hurricanes in particular) Science questions and status –What governs the evolution of a tropical disturbance into a major hurricane? What we know is limited to short duration field campaigns, satellite based research and models. –What is the role of atmospheric composition in the life-cycle ? The importance of local aerosols and microphysics sensitive chemistry is poorly understood and observed. –Non-linear interactions of severe storms with their environments are known to be critical but are poorly observed on the required time and space scales. ESE related Focus Areas –Water and energy cycles –Weather –Atmospheric composition Measurement requirements –Parameters Sea surface temperature Sea surface winds/waves MBL winds and fluxes Precipitation Environmental profiles of t,q and u Microphysics and air chemistry –Observing system requirements Vertical regard: 0 – 20km Horizontal regard: 500km Temporal revisit: 1 hour Duration: 14 days Range: trans oceanic AAOS enhancements –Long duration flights over oceans –Adaptive flight below clouds that confound satellite observations –Temporal and spatial resolution matched to phenomena –Flight into high stress zones (icing, shear,spherics) –Cal/val for space-based observing systems

Lagrangian studies of air parcel chemistry, thermodynamics and dynamics Science questions and status –How do the chemistry, thermodynamics and dynamics of an individual parcel of atmosphere respond to external forcing? Do models properly represent chemical reaction rates? Very little validation of models. Related ESE focus areas –Atmospheric composition –Water and energy cycles –Weather –Climate variability and change –Carbon cycle and ecosystems Measurement requirements –Aerosol loadings (physical and chemical properties) –Gas concentrations (ozone, CO2) –Air temperature, moisture, winds, radiation Observing system requirements Vertical regard: 0 – 30km Horizontal regard: 10km Temporal revisit: minutes Duration: 48 hours Range: per air parcel AAOS opportunities for enhancement –Ability to fly at speeds that permit co-flight with limited size air parcels (airships?) –Mother ship with associated sensor craft for combined mission endurance and multi-mobile-platform investigations –Self directed positioning to meet science objectives –High capability mother ship would allow for use of active systems not easily accommodated on small sensor craft

Adaptive targeting of observations needed for operational weather forecasting* Science questions and status –Can forecasts of high impact weather events be improved significantly with adaptive targeting? Not enough cases (too expensive) to draw conclusions from field campaigns such a WSRP. –What are the critical real-time observations for fully coupled models of the atmosphere, oceans and land? Models are currently designed to use available data, not necessarily required data. Related ESE focus areas –Atmospheric composition –Water and energy cycles –Weather –Climate variability and change –Carbon cycle and ecosystems Measurement requirements –Parameters Air temperature, moisture and winds Radiation and cloud coverage Surface water/moisture Interface fluxes –Observing system requirements Rapid response < 6 hours Vertical regard: 0 – 20km Horizontal regard: 2000km Temporal revisit: 6 hour Duration: 2 days Range: trans oceanic AAOS opportunities for enhancement –Squadrons of sensor craft (IMPS) available on-call for model directed data collection (IMPS: Integrated Model Platform Sensors) * Also for homeland security functions and disaster response

Stratospheric/tropospheric exchange Science questions and status –How can we observe and understand intercontinental atmospheric transport of chemicals and their transformations? –How do we integrate in-situ measurements, satellite observations and models (further developing the potential of satellite remote sensing) –Lack of observations is hindering our understanding of the processes controlling tropospheric ozone concentrations (physical and chemical) –How and where is ozone made in the troposphere? We need experiments to quantify the various processes that affect global tropospheric ozone. –We need to improve our understanding of how transport processes (convection, frontal systems, STE) affect the ozone budget. Related ESE focus areas –Atmospheric composition –Water and energy cycles –Weather –Climate variability and change –Carbon cycle and ecosystems Measurement requirements –Ozone, aerosols –Interactive chemical species –Local profiles of temperature, moisture and winds Observing system requirements Vertical regard: 0 – 20km Horizontal regard: 500km Temporal revisit: 3 hour Duration:10 days Range: per event AAOS opportunities for enhancement –High altitude, long duration flight with air parcel following capability –Self directed flight at times. –External (models?) directed flight at times.

Relevance to Earth Science Roadmaps NASA works with the science community to identify questions on the frontiers of science that have profound societal importance, and to which remote sensing of the Earth can make a defining contribution. These science questions become the foundation of a research strategy, which defines requirements for scientific observations, and a roadmap for combining the technology, observations, modeling efforts, basic research, and partnerships needed to answer the questions over time. Six roadmaps space the research strategy: –Climate Variability and Change - Develop integrated models of the ocean, air, cryosphere and land surface, and apply to retrospective and future studies of climate variability and change. –Weather - Develop the technology, observational and modeling capacity needed to improve daily and extreme weather forecasting (e.g. hurricanes, tornadoes). –Atmospheric Composition - Understand the trace constituent and particulate composition of the Earths atmosphere and predict its future evolution. –Carbon Cycle, Ecosystems, and Biogeochemistry - Understand and predict changes in the Earth's terrestrial and marine ecosystems and biogeochemical cycles. –Water & Energy Cycles - Characterize and predict trends and changes in the global water and energy cycles. –Earth Surface and Interior Structure - Utilize state-of-the-art measurements and advanced modeling techniques to understand and predict changes in the Earth's surface and interior.

T Atmospheric Composition High lat. observations of O 3, aerosol, & H 2 O in the UT/LS (SAGE III & Science/ Validation Campaigns) Knowledge Base Operational predictions linking ozone and aerosols with climate and air quality Systematic observations of O 3, aerosol, and O 3 -related & climate-related trace gases Evaluation of chemistry/climate interactions using multi-decadal simulations of the stratosphere & troposphere. Quantification of mechanisms in the evolution of tropospheric ozone Steady Improvements in Assessment Models o Melding of stratospheric & tropospheric chemistry o Coupling of chemistry and radiation in GCMs o Assimilation of constituents in models o Improved representations of aerosols & emissions o Increased spatial resolution Global observations of stratospheric & tropospheric constituents & parameters: Aura, ENVISAT Simulation of observed changes in tropospheric & stratospheric ozone, water vapor, aerosols and potential impacts of future changes on climate & atmospheric chemistry Field campaigns: stratosphere/troposphere coupling & satellite validation Ozone Continuity Mission: Continued trend series of ozone- and climate-related parameters Assessment of observed stratospheric ozone recovery in response changing climate; continuing assessment of tropospheric ozone trends and mechanisms Evaluation of feedbacks between aerosols, O 3, H 2 O, and climate International Assessment International Assessment International Assessment 2000 Halogen chemistry shown responsible for stratospheric O 3 losses. Halogen chemistry shown responsible for stratospheric O 3 losses. Tropospheric O 3 not well understood. Tropospheric O 3 not well understood. Uncertainties in feedbacks between strat. O 3 recovery, trop. O 3 trends, & climate. Uncertainties in feedbacks between strat. O 3 recovery, trop. O 3 trends, & climate. Poor knowledge and modeling of the chemical evolution of aerosols Poor knowledge and modeling of the chemical evolution of aerosols Geostationary Tropospheric Composition Mission High spatial & temporal resolution products NPOESS ozone trend and aerosol measurements Accelerated (APS) aerosol measurements Goal: Improved prognostic ability for: Recovery of strat. Ozone. Impacts on climate and surface UV Evolution of trop. ozone and aerosols. Impacts on climate and air quality LEO Aerosol/Black Carbon Mapping T Assessment of the potential for future major ozone depletion in the Arctic Systematic stratospheric composition T NASA Unfunded Internl NOAA T =Technology development needed

AAOS for water and energy cycle research Budget closure involving precipitation, evaporation,runoff..

AAOS for weather research and applications Need storm scale observations over entire life-cycle of disturbance Need adaptive targeting of critical observations in model data sensitive locations

AAOS for climate variability and change

AAOS for atmospheric composition research Stratospheric/tropospheric exchange events Aerosol/chemical interactions with convection

AAOS for carbon cycle and ecosystems research