Forecasting Hazards & Charting a Safe Course

How to Plan Changes in Flight Safety Programs to Meet Future Safety Issues, Decisions &Attitudes

and Keep Your Business Profitable!

Welcome Safety Managers

Charles Dodgson, Oxford math lecturer, text author, 1850s-1880s

Lewis Carroll writer of children's books 1850s -1880s Caricature by Zach Trenholm, SALON Magazine.

Planning Alice in Wonderland

Alice said to the Cat, Would you tell me, please, which way I ought to go from here?

That depends a good deal on where you want to get to, said the Cheshire Cat.

I dont much care where… said Alice.

Then it doesnt matter which way you go, said the Cheshire Cat.

…so long as I get somewhere, Alice added as an explanation.

Oh, youre sure to do that, said the Cheshire Cat, if you only walk long enough.

know which way to go Flight safety program managers need to know which way to go…

accidentpreventers & how far to walk to become accident preventers…

accident investigators … and not become accident investigators!

Procedures & Examples of how to produce… Safety Forecast & Plans

Forecast Annual Safety Forecast & Plan Annual Safety Plan Safety Forecast & Plans

Future Safety Issues, Decisions & Attitudes...to meet Future Safety Issues, Decisions & Attitudes Safety Forecast & Plans

Paul Miller -Independent safety consultant -B767 & B757 intl line captain, -Flies for a global logistics company & express package delivery service -Safety program manager: pilot association, 2 airports & a specialized air logistics organization

Paul Miller is now: -Independent safety consultant

Safety Forecasts & Plans

-Simple Procedures

Safety Forecasts & Plans -Simple Procedures -Estimating and Compensating

Safety Forecasts & Plans -Simple Procedures -Estimating and Compensating -Expected Flight Safety Hazards

Safety Forecasts & Plans -Simple Procedures -Estimating and Compensating -Expected Flight Safety Hazards -As yet Unresolved

Safety Forecasts & Plans -Simple Procedures -Estimating and Compensating -Expected Flight Safety Hazards -As yet Unresolved -As yet Unmanaged

Safety Forecasts & Plans -Simple Procedures -Estimating and Compensating -Expected Flight Safety Hazards -As yet Unresolved -As yet Unmanaged -May be Unreported

Safety Forecasts & Plans -Simple Procedures -Estimating and Compensating -Expected Flight Safety Hazards -As yet Unresolved -As yet Unmanaged -May be Unreported -Will affect a local organization…

Safety Forecasts & Plans -Simple Procedures -Estimating and Compensating -Expected Flight Safety Hazards -As yet Unresolved -As yet Unmanaged -May be Unreported -Will affect a local organization… …YOURS!

…All Safety is Local

Annual Safety Forecast -based on Early Detection of Hazards

Annual Safety Forecast -based on Early Detection of Hazards -using cultural listening

Annual Safety Forecast -based on Early Detection of Hazards -using cultural listening -not exact science

Annual Safety Forecast -based on Early Detection of Hazards -using cultural listening -not exact science -daily working list

Annual Safety Forecast -based on Early Detection of Hazards -using cultural listening -not exact science -daily working list -logical inductive reasoning

Annual Safety Forecast -based on Early Detection of Hazards -using cultural listening -not exact science -daily working list -logical inductive reasoning -calculation of risk

Annual Safety Forecast -based on Early Detection of Hazards -using cultural listening -not exact science -daily working list -logical inductive reasoning -calculation of risk -mathematical, graphic modeling

What are Hazards?

-Probable Risks

What are Hazards? -Probable Risks -Serious Risks

What are Hazards? -Probable Risks -Serious Risks People

What are Hazards? -Probable Risks -Serious Risks People -Injury & Death

What are Hazards? -Probable Risks -Serious Risks People -Injury & Death Property

What are Hazards? -Probable Risks -Serious Risks People -Injury & Death Property -Damage & Destruction

What are Hazards? -Probable Risks -Serious Risks People $$$$ -Injury & Death Property -Damage & Destruction

What are Hazards? -Probable Risks -Serious Risks People $$$$ -Injury & Death Property $$$$ -Damage & Destruction

What are Hazard$? -Probable Risk$ -Serious Risk$ People $$$$ -Injury & Death Property $$$$ -Damage & Destruction Additional cost$?

Hazard Unresolved?

-no strategy for resolution?

Hazard Unresolved? -no strategy for resolution? -longstanding?

Hazard Unresolved? -no strategy for resolution? -longstanding? -culturally accepted as irresolvable?

Hazard Unmanaged?

-no manager for resolution?

Hazard Unmanaged? -no manager for resolution? -no assigned manager?

Hazard Unmanaged? -no manager for resolution? -no assigned manager? -assigned manager not functioning?

Hazard Unreported?

-New or emerging hazard?

Hazard Unreported? -New or emerging hazard? -Known but unreported?

Hazard Unreported? -New or emerging hazard? -Known but unreported? -Reoccurring hazard?

Hazard Affect?

-people?

Hazard Affect? -people? -your local organization?

Hazard Affect? -people? -your local organization? -customers, neighbors & visitors?

Hazard Affect?

-property & equipment?

Hazard Affect? -property & equipment? -your local organization?

Hazard Affect? -property & equipment? -your local organization? -belonging to others?

Early Detection …is the key

Early Detection Why Early Detection? The earlier a hazard is detected by a forecast, the earlier a resolution plan can be created.

Millers Early Detection Theorem

The longer a hazard exists,

Millers Early Detection Theorem The longer a hazard exists, the higher the probability that it will cause a mishap

Detection at all Why Detection at all? Millers Hazard & Mishap Theorem

Detection Why Detection at all? Millers Hazard & Mishap Theorem Mishapshazard-based A. Mishaps are hazard-based

Detection Why Detection at all? Millers Hazard & Mishap Theorem Mishapshazard-based A. Mishaps are hazard-based Hazardspeople-action B. Hazards are people-action

Detection Why Detection at all? Millers Hazard & Mishap Theorem Mishapshazard-based A. Mishaps are hazard-based Hazardspeople-action lack-of-actionbased B. Hazards are people-action or lack-of-action-based

Millers Hazard & Mishap Theorem Corollary

Elimination of people- based hazards…

Millers Hazard & Mishap Theorem Corollary Elimination of people- based hazards…eliminates the basis for mishaps.

Millers Safety Riddle:

Millers Safety Riddle: Does the mishap cause the hazard to occur? ??

Millers Safety Riddle: Does the mishap cause the hazard to occur? Or does the hazard cause the mishap to occur? ? ??

Millers Safety Riddle: Does the mishap cause the hazard to occur? Or does the hazard cause the mishap to occur? ? ?? ?

Millers Quickness Corollary to Early Detection Theorem…

The quicker a hazard is resolved,

Millers Quickness Corollary to Early Detection Theorem… The quicker a hazard is resolved, the lower the probability that the hazard will cause a mishap.

Millers Quickness Corollary to Early Detection Theorem… The quicker a hazard is resolved, the lower the probability that the hazard will cause a mishap. The resolution time is as important as the resolution

Millers Quickness Corollary to Early Detection Theorem… The resolution time is as important as the resolution The resolution time is as important as the resolution

Rabbit Response

Annual Safety Plan based on Rabbit Response of Resolution

Annual Safety Plan based on Rapid Response of Resolution

Annual Safety Plan - based on Rapid Response of Resolution from Hazard Report Recommendations

Annual Safety Plan - based on Rapid Response of Resolution from Hazard Report Recommendations Immediate Intervention Immediate Intervention: affecting Procedure, Practice, Technique

Annual Safety Plan - based on Rapid Response of Resolution from Hazard Report Recommendations Immediate Intervention: affecting Procedure, Practice, Technique Interim Remediation Interim Remediation: affecting Policy, Procedure

Annual Safety Plan - based on Rapid Response of Resolution from Hazard Report Recommendations Immediate Intervention: affecting Procedure, Practice, Technique Interim Remediation: affecting Policy, Procedure Long Term Resolution Long Term Resolution: affecting Philosophy, Policy

Annual Safety Plan - based on Rapid Response of Resolution from Hazard Report Recommendations Immediate Intervention: affecting Procedure, Practice, Technique Interim Remediation: affecting Policy, Procedure Long Term Resolution: affecting Philosophy, Policy Hazard Intervention = Mishap Prevention

Annual Safety Plan - based on Rapid Response of Resolution from Hazard Report Recommendations Hazard Intervention = Mishap Prevention

Credible Source Safety manger

Safety Forecasting

Calculation of the Risk of the Hazard

0 +Y +X +Z 100%

Risk may vary by time of day, time of season, time of year

Times of high activity, low activity, combined activity & coincidence

Millers Safety Formula for Risk Risk equals probability times seriousness

Millers Safety Formula for Risk Risk equals probability times seriousness Z = X Y

Millers Safety Formula for Risk Risk equals probability times seriousness Z = X Y

Millers Safety Formula for Risk Risk equals probability times seriousness Z = X Y -Three dimensional curve, depicting the full range of risks. It is a graphic display of the safety challenge

Millers Formula for Safety Risk is a Mathematical expression of Hazard Risk of Cost of Loss or Z Z = sine |X| N ( Y ) Where: X = Hazard Probability from 0 to here-it-comes Y = Hazard Seriousness from minor to major Sine = regular time fluctuations N = variable factors

N = Millers Possible Variable factors N = n1+n2+n3+n4+n5+n6, where: n1 = Assigned legal punitive costs n2 = Loss of public relations image & market share n3 = Loss of managerial talent to resolving disaster n4 = Loss of company growth & productivity n5 = Employee morale destruction n6 = Eventual discovery that disaster was preventable causing loss of confidence

A graph of the mathematical equation Z= sine|X|(NY) gives a visual clue to the magnitude of the safety hazard resolution challenge!.

Hazard Risk of Cost of Loss is product of two other factors & is somewhat geometric

Risk (costs) = probability x severity Z = X Y where Z, X,Y>0

Severity and probability grow together the costs begin a rise in risk cost.

Planning

…from local safety forecast

local organization Planning involves very specific procedures, which are clear for your local organization to follow.

external Planning involves very specific recommended procedures for external organizations

Conclusion Charting a safe course

Successful Flight Safety Program Procedures…

… to keep one step ahead of the next big accident

…lower your local accident rate toward zero! ! ! ! ! !

Forecasting Hazards & Planning Change to meet Future Safety Issues, Decisions & Attitudes…

…and Keep Your Business Profitable!