Sustainable Heating and Cooling in Sweden Dr. Monica Axell Business Development Manager, RISE Division Built Environment monica.axell@ri.se

Expected energy developments Heating demand will remain significant Cooling demand will grow rapidly Flexibility more and more important Sector coupling – Buildings-Transport- Industry

Sustainability

District Heating and Cooling Sweden Oil and Gas Energy Biomass Boiler District Heating and Cooling Electricity Heat Pumps

Supplied energy to district heating 1980-2017 Other Peat Fossil Renewable Recovered

Heat demand RISE — Mallpresentation

Utilisation Waste Upgrading/(vehicle fuel) Heating Flaring Power production Industrial use Other use Missing data/losses

Market for cooling is growing in Sweden

The heating market will change The era of oil and gas The bi-polar world The heating future Oil Oil becomes obsolete Heat pumps are the most effective individual technology, but require competitive pricing of electricity vs. gas to win Heat pump Due to slow change rate, available infrastructure, and price gas will stay in the market for a long time Gas Green Gas ??? …will this come? Heating grids are (where available/ new build in dense areas) the best option (scale effect …) District Heat Biomass Combined H/P Biomass, waste and independent Micro-Grids will play a niche role for local solutions Coal and direct electricity heating will fade out Today Future Source: Pöyry, prognos AG, team analysis

Heating grids development System temperature 1st gen (>200°C) 200 °C 150 °C 100 °C 50 °C 0 °C Steam Pressurized hot water systems Heavy equipment Large stations Pre-insulated pipes Industrialized compact substations (insulated) Metering and monitoring Low energy demands Smart grid (optimum interaction of energy sources, distribution and cons.) 2-way DH Bidirectonal Can deliver cooling and heating Active components in buildings Flexible temperatures 2:a gen smart grid Recycles all thermal flows 2nd gen (>100°C) 3rd gen (80-100°C) 4th gen (<60(70)°C) Flexible system temperatures (°C) 5GDH™ Warm hybrid Cold hybrid 1880 1930s 1970s 2010s

Decarbonisation of the heating sector 14 EC countries (90 % av Europes heating market) Simulation of scenarios - 2050 Conclusions: CO2 reduction with 86% - baseline 1990 (heating and cooling market) Well known technology: District heating in urban areas Heat pumps (individual or in district heating grid )

Europé DHC 2050 - HRE4 District Heating - 50 % of heat demand 2050 12% today Large heat pumps - 25% of heat demand 95 GWth Heat pumps offer flexibility 95 GWth => 30 000 heat pumps in Europes DHC - grid 2050 (assumption 3 MW in average) Källa: Heat Roadmap Europe

Sweden 2050 (HRE4) HP in Sweden DHC-system 2050 DHC from HP in Sweden (TWh/år) Sweden 2050 (HRE4) HP in Sweden DHC-system 2050 1,2 GW installed HP-capacity => 4 GW 1000 st new HP - 3MW 4,5 TWh/år =>12 TWh/år Less hours - full load HP is used to offer flexibility Installed heat capacity, Europe

Kvarteret Seglet, Karlstad Build 2007, 44 apartments - Energy efficient DHC –return - Floor heating and DHW Production DHW: Pre heating : Heat exchanger – DHC return Booster HP: Heat source : DHC return Heat demand: 88% DHC-return, 12% el Experience: Economy: In Karlstad: YES but depends on the cost of DHC

CELSIUS – EU Project We are a trustworthy and independent organisation that has been working with innovative heating and cooling solutions. Proud recipient of… They trust us! >70 cities engaged in smart heating and cooling >70 city supporters: research institutions, industry representatives, projects, cluster organisations & associations

Today Celsius… …is a demand driven collaboration hub for efficient, integrated heating and cooling solutions supporting cities in their energy transition to carbon-neutral systems. … gathers and shares technical, economic, social and policy expertise. … connects members, exchange and foster innovation, leading to solutions that accelerate sustainable development in Europe and across the world.