Learning to Realize Education’s Promise 2018 WORLD DEVELOPMENT REPORT Learning to Realize Education’s Promise Themes and Emerging Messages of the World Development Report 2018

Main themes The promise of education The learning crisis Innovations and evidence for learning Making the system work to achieve learning at scale

Theme 1: The promise of education

Theme 1: The promise of education Education’s promise A human right, key to human capabilities, that enables richer lives Eliminate poverty sustainably and promote shared prosperity High financial and non-financial (e.g. health) returns that accrue to individuals and societies Foundational to political and social development Education’s promise is often unrealized Education can’t do it alone Investment climate Norms and laws Education can produce social “bads” Can perpetuate social inequalities Prone to political manipulation Schooling isn’t learning Under the wrong conditions, schooling won’t lead to poverty reduction, economic growth, or reduction in inequalities Promotes equity, social inclusion, and social mobility Multiplier of other investments and policies

Theme 2: The learning crisis

Access has increased dramatically Source: WDR 2018 team with data from Lee and Lee 2016. Progress towards the MDG has been impressive Historic Primary net enrollment rates Historically impressive improvements in access There are still 260 million primary- and secondary-age children out of school Fragile and conflict settings Excluded and disadvantaged groups

Remaining gaps in attainment Patterns differ across countries, but poverty strongly predicts low attainment everywhere Pakistan 2012 Mali 2012 Peru 2012 Indonesia 2012 Poorest quintile Quintile 2 Quintile 3 Quintile 4 Richest

Remaining gaps in attainment—Multiple exclusions Exclusions interact to create groups that lag substantially far behind Pakistan 2012 Mali 2012 Peru 2012 Indonesia 2012 Girls in the Poorest Quintile

Schooling is not learning: Deficits start in early grades Percent of Grade 2 students who could not read a single word of a short text Percent of Grade 2 students who could not do a 2-digit subtraction Source: http://www.earlygradereadingbarometer.org/ Source: Uwezo; ASER; and various EGMA reports

Schooling is not learning: Extremely low performance PASEC Math 2014: Proportions of End-of-Primary students scoring at each level— at “Level 1” students can perform only the most basic operations and are considered below “sufficient” for continued schooling Source: Malpel et al. 2015

Schooling is not learning: High inequalities in learning PASEC Reading 2014: Proportions of End-of-Primary students scoring at each level Source: PASEC “Report Cards” 2017

Learning in MICs falls short of even low performers’ in OECD In the Dominican Republic, Tunisia, Kosovo, and Algeria the 75th percentile on PISA Math performs below the 25th percentile in the OECD average 75th percentile 25th percentile Median Source: OECD (2016). PISA is a test of 15-year-olds in secondary school.

Service Delivery Indicators in SSA: Teacher absence * Nigeria is 4 States Source: Bold and others (2017)

School management capacity: lower in middle income countries Frequency distribution of scores on assessment of management quality (Reference line is smoothed US distribution) Source: Reproduced from Bloom and others (2015)

Learning metrics are a first step Many countries don’t know whether students are learning Percent of countries in each region with a nationally representative learning assessment Source: UNESCO (2016).

Theme 3: Promising interventions to improve learning

Theme 3: Interventions to improve learning—promising places to start Ensure learners are prepared and motivated Investing in the early years Demand-side incentives Preparation for training Learning Children and parents (preparation and effort) Teachers School management and governance (Leadership and community involvement) School inputs (infrastructure and materials) Ensure teachers are skilled and motivated Effective professional development Motivation and incentives Teaching to the level of the students Ensure school investments facilitate students learning from teachers Inputs and infrastructure Technology School-based decision-making Preparing young people for jobs requires dynamic systems that link them to employers Demand-driven Flexible Effectively integrated with employers

Theme 4: Making the system work to achieve learning at scale

Theme 4: Achieving learning at scale Working at scale is not “scaling up” Taking an intervention that has shown promise in an “experiment” and implementing it widely won’t typically work Example: Contract teachers in Kenya Bold, Tessa, Mwangi Kimenyi, Germano Mwabu, Alice Ng'ang'a, and Justin Sandefur. 2013. "Scaling up What Works: Experimental Evidence on External Validity in Kenyan Education." Center for Global Development Working Paper (321). Burns, T, and F Köster. 2016. "Governing Education in a Complex World." Paris: OECD. Retrieved April 27: 2016. Harding, Robin, and David Stasavage. 2014. "What Democracy Does (and Doesn’t Do) for Basic Services: School Fees, School Inputs, and African Elections." The Journal of Politics 76(01): 229-45. Pritchett, Lant, and Michael Woolcock. 2004. "Solutions When the Solution Is the Problem: Arraying the Disarray in Development." World Development 32(2): 191-212. Bruns, B, and J Luque. 2014. Great Teachers: How to Raise Student Learning in Latin America and the Caribbean. Washington, DC: World Bank. World Bank. 2016. "Assessing Basic Education Service Delivery in the Philippines : Public Education Expenditure Tracking and Quantitative Service Delivery Study." Washington D.C.: The World Bank Group. Forgy, L., 2009. Per Student Financing in ECA School Systems (No. 10250). The World Bank. Grindle, Merilee Serrill. 2004. Despite the Odds: The Contentious Politics of Education Reform. Princeton University Press. Béteille, Tara. 2009. Absenteeism, transfers and patronage: the political economy of teacher labor markets in India. Unpublished Doctoral Dissertation, Stanford University. Rosser, Andrew J, and Mohamad Fahmi. 2016. "The Political Economy of Teacher Management in Decentralized Indonesia." (Note: Under “Components do not align towards learning”, Bruns and Luque 2014 includes an example of how Mexico’s teacher recruitment and remuneration are not related to teacher competency or performance.) --------------- Technical Complexity Systems are opaque, sticky, and ill-equipped (Burns and Köster 2016; Harding and Stasavage 2014; Pritchett and Woolcock 2004) Components do not align towards learning (Bruns and Luque 2014; World Bank 2016) Political economy Misalignment is not random (Bruns and Luque 2014; Forgy 2009) Multiple actors have competing objectives (Grindle 2004) Systems are stuck in low-accountability, high-inequality equilibrium (Béteille 2009; Rosser and Fahmi 2016)

Theme 4: Achieving learning at scale Barriers to learning at scale Technical complexity Systems are opaque, sticky, and ill-equipped Components do not align towards learning Political economy Misalignment is not random Multiple actors have competing objectives  pulled out of alignment Systems are stuck in low-learning, low-accountability, high- inequality traps Bold, Tessa, Mwangi Kimenyi, Germano Mwabu, Alice Ng'ang'a, and Justin Sandefur. 2013. "Scaling up What Works: Experimental Evidence on External Validity in Kenyan Education." Center for Global Development Working Paper (321). Burns, T, and F Köster. 2016. "Governing Education in a Complex World." Paris: OECD. Retrieved April 27: 2016. Harding, Robin, and David Stasavage. 2014. "What Democracy Does (and Doesn’t Do) for Basic Services: School Fees, School Inputs, and African Elections." The Journal of Politics 76(01): 229-45. Pritchett, Lant, and Michael Woolcock. 2004. "Solutions When the Solution Is the Problem: Arraying the Disarray in Development." World Development 32(2): 191-212. Bruns, B, and J Luque. 2014. Great Teachers: How to Raise Student Learning in Latin America and the Caribbean. Washington, DC: World Bank. World Bank. 2016. "Assessing Basic Education Service Delivery in the Philippines : Public Education Expenditure Tracking and Quantitative Service Delivery Study." Washington D.C.: The World Bank Group. Forgy, L., 2009. Per Student Financing in ECA School Systems (No. 10250). The World Bank. Grindle, Merilee Serrill. 2004. Despite the Odds: The Contentious Politics of Education Reform. Princeton University Press. Béteille, Tara. 2009. Absenteeism, transfers and patronage: the political economy of teacher labor markets in India. Unpublished Doctoral Dissertation, Stanford University. Rosser, Andrew J, and Mohamad Fahmi. 2016. "The Political Economy of Teacher Management in Decentralized Indonesia." (Note: Under “Components do not align towards learning”, Bruns and Luque 2014 includes an example of how Mexico’s teacher recruitment and remuneration are not related to teacher competency or performance.) --------------- Technical Complexity Systems are opaque, sticky, and ill-equipped (Burns and Köster 2016; Harding and Stasavage 2014; Pritchett and Woolcock 2004) Components do not align towards learning (Bruns and Luque 2014; World Bank 2016) Political economy Misalignment is not random (Bruns and Luque 2014; Forgy 2009) Multiple actors have competing objectives (Grindle 2004) Systems are stuck in low-accountability, high-inequality equilibrium (Béteille 2009; Rosser and Fahmi 2016)

Theme 4: Achieving learning at scale Barriers to learning at the system level: Examples Technical: Lack of coherence in South Africa Outcomes-based curriculum in 1990s and 2000s Inspired by Finland  autonomy for teachers in implementation But no accompanying reforms—capacity, incentives, support Political: Political renegotiation in Indonesia Indonesia doubled salaries for certified teachers (starting in 2005) But political pressures watered down certification Massive budget increase, but no improvement in teacher competencies or student learning Watered down: eg., elimination of competency test, falsified portfolio documentation Chisholm, Linda, and Ramon Leyendecker. 2008. "Curriculum Reform in Post-1990s Sub-Saharan Africa." International Journal of Educational Development 28(2): 195-205. Chang, M-C, S Shaeffer, S Al-Samarrai, A Ragatz, J. De Ree, and R Stevenson. 2013. Teacher Reform in Indonesia: The Role of Politics and Evidence in Policy Making. de Ree, Joppe, Karthik Muralidharan, Menno Pradhan, and Halsey Rogers. 2015. "Double for Nothing? Experimental Evidence on the Impact of an Unconditional Teacher Salary Increase on Student Performance in Indonesia." NBER Working Paper No. 21806.

Theme 4: Achieving learning at scale Goal is to align system components and behaviors towards learning, e.g. Curriculum, teacher preparation, evaluation, assessment Financing Accountability and information flows Government stewardship role (e.g. overseeing public and private providers) Pritchett, Lant. 2015. "Creating Education Systems Coherent for Learning Outcomes: Making the Transition from Schooling to Learning." Research on Improving Systems of Education (RISE) Working Paper, Preliminary draft.

Theme 4: Achieving learning at scale Opportunities for creating and sustaining strategic change Information and metrics Coalitions and Incentives Innovation and agility

Theme 4: Achieving learning at scale Information and metrics Shine a light on the learning crisis and hidden exclusions Better information/metrics on learning and its drivers can: Loosen political constraints Improve system management Information and metrics need to: Be publicly available, credible and meaningful Include targets or realistic expectations of system performance Align with political/administrative jurisdictions

Theme 4: Achieving learning at scale Coalitions and Incentives Balance interests and shift systems towards learning Inclusive coalitions can: Balance/shift interests Support design of better policies Improve implementation Varying strategies to build coalitions Examples: Peru, Chile, and Malaysia “labs” model Some lessons: Use information/communication campaigns Focus at all levels and through policy cycle Recognize high political and system costs of confrontation

Theme 4: Achieving learning at scale Innovation and agility Develop “good fit” solutions to local challenges “Good fit” solutions can: Draw on ideas from anywhere as inspiration Design solutions that work in local context How to do this: Develop environment and autonomy to encourage innovation Identify and learn from high-performing parts of the system Build M&E systems that provide rapid feedback for adaptation Mechanisms to scale out promising innovations

LEARNING to Realize Education’s Promise Countries need to act as if learning really matters to them Systematically measuring learning and skills, to make the learning crisis visible and track progress Making better use of what we’ve learned about how to improve learning at the level of students, classrooms, and schools Taking on the system-level technical and political barriers to learning at scale

Thank You

Learning to Realize Education’s Promise 2018 WORLD DEVELOPMENT REPORT Learning to Realize Education’s Promise