What if? prospects based on Corilis

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Presentation transcript:

What if? prospects based on Corilis Alex Oulton, Manuel Winograd & Jean-Louis Weber (draft, 14 Nov. 08)

Corilis is the computation in a regular grid of CLC values in and in the neighbourhood of each cell (in the application: radius of 5km) Ref.: EEA 2006, Land accounts for Europe 1990-2000 B A Areas prone to agriculture intensification driven by the agro-fuel demand: assumptions minimum of 20% of agriculture potential (~UAA)  mountains, urban areas, large forests… are excluded. higher potential for conversion when the 2 agriculture types are balanced (very intensive areas will not intensify any more, very extensive areas result probably from relief and climate conditions which will restrict intensification) For each grid cell of 1km², the formula is therefore: Conversion Potential = [Potential (A-B)]2 * Potential (A+B), when Potential (A+B) > 20. Value normalised to 0 to 100

From Corine land cover to Corilis

Analysis of Corilis values of classes 2a and 2b What if? prospect: where conversion to broad pattern intensive agriculture may take place? Analysis of Corilis values of classes 2a and 2b 2a = broad pattern intensive agriculture (clc21, 22 + 241) 2b = pastures and mosaics (clc231, 242, 243 & 244) Each cell of the grid is given a value of: (2a-2b)2 *(2a+2b) Positive values (more intensive) are brown, negative values (more pasture and mosaics) are green, yellow meaning transition areas 2a+2b = UAA = assumed to be constant (e.g. no deforestation) the share of 2a within 2a-2b increases of 5, 10, 20 and 50% Problems of visualisation at the European scale but clear vision at the regional scale -100 +100

-100 +100

Urban temperature 2010 – prospect 1 What if? prospect: when urban sprawl takes place in the neighbouring countryside… Baseline Data: Corilis / Urban Temperature 2000, scale of 0-100 // Average increase 2000-2010: 5%, even over Europe Prospect 1: a constant of 5 points is added up to Corilis values > 5 (below 5 corresponds to remote countryside) Urban temperature 2000 Urban temperature 2010 – prospect 1 10 100

What if? Prospect: urban sprawl in the countryside Corilis 2000 +3 points +5 points +10 points 10 100

What if? Prospect: when urban sprawl takes place in the countryside 10 100