Political Conflict Nigeria

What are the ways Nigerians can impact politics? intro What are the ways Nigerians can impact politics?

Party Systems & Elections Nigeria

Nigeria Party System System Politics is based entirely around self enrichment Parties have formed under democratic regimes & disappeared under military dictatorships Most historical parties formed along ethnic lines Both democratic and military regimes have made attempts to establish cross ethnic national parties Until recently, parties match ethnicities and regions more than they fit on a left-right political continuum

Nigeria Elections & Parties Parties in 1979 Parties were banned from the beginning of military rule until 1978 Obasanjo legalized political parties in preparation for the transition to democratic rule In 1978, 150 parties were formed In 1979 Shehu Shagari was elected president & tried to impose order by forming national political parties Parties had to win one fourth of the votes in two thirds of the states Parties had to be open to all Nigerians

Nigeria Elections & Parties 1985 - 1993 Only 5 parties were viable for the 1979 and 1983 – then military coups banned all the parties again Under General Babangida, the National Election Commission tried to design a two party system It was clear that this would lead to a Christian southern party and a Muslim northern party – so they went back to 5 Babangida shut down the commission & made two parties : one “a little to the left” and one “a little to the right” He announced the transition to civilian rule with an election between the Social Democratic Party & the National Republican Convention

Nigeria Elections & Parties 1993 - 1999 The election resulted in Mashood Abiola winning & the military annulled the results There was another coup & General Abacha took charge and made 5 parties that were all loyal to him All 5 nominated Abacha for president! General Abubaker prepared for a transition to democracy in 1999 He would only allow parties that had maintained national organizations. 9 met that qualification, but he took the top 3 vote getters

Nigeria Elections & Parties 1999 The three parties allowed reflected the regional & ethnic differences The People’s Democratic Party was made up of mostly northern Hausas The All People’s Party was mostly made up of the eastern Igbo The Alliance for Democracy was mostly made up of western Yoruba The PDP chose to nominate Obasanjo, because he was an old general despite being a Yoruba Christian

In 2007, PDP transferred its support from Obasanjo to Yar’Adua Nigeria Fourth Republic PDP Elections In the Fourth Republic, parties have established some cross ethnic appeal With each subsequent election, there has been less regional base for the parties The PDP dominated the elections until 2015, helped by patronage networks In 2007, PDP transferred its support from Obasanjo to Yar’Adua Foreign observers concluded the election was rigged so badly it “lacked even the pretense of democratic plausibility”

Yar’Adua died 3 years into office & Goodluck Jonathan took over Nigeria Fourth Republic Zoning Yar’Adua died 3 years into office & Goodluck Jonathan took over He was seen as a “caretaker” until 2011 when the political bosses would get to pick a northerner to resume their turn in the “zoning system” Zoning refers to the practice of the PDP of rotating leadership between the north and south after each president’s two term limit Jonathan did get rid of the head of the election commission and the 2011 and 2015 elections have been the cleanest elections that Nigeria has held

Nigeria Fourth Republic 2015 The three largest opposition parties merged in 2015 to form the All Progressives Congress In the 2015 election, Jonathan was defeated by the APC’s Buhari, a former military dictator Power shifting from PDP to APC marks the first peaceful transition of power from one elected party to another Nigeria finally seems headed toward a two party system that can offer real choice to Nigerian voters

Parties are still plagued by corruption and economic troubles. Nigeria Fourth Republic Problems Parties are still plagued by corruption and economic troubles. During PDP rule the country earned $500 billion in oil revenue, but most of that has not been invested or distributed The missing revenue is in the hands of the regional & national PDP elite In 2013, polls indicated that 2/3 of Nigerians were “not satisfied” with democracy

Nigeria Fourth Republic Problems Ethnic and religious fault lines are still apparent in the parties Buhari won 54% of the votes, but only 5% of the votes in the south Jonathan got 45% of the vote, but only performed well in 3 states in the north The parties may have multiethnic elements because the oil revenues make ties between elites The patronage system has mostly just helped incumbents & people don’t see much good coming from them.

Nigeria Fourth Republic Improvements Elections in 2011 and 2015 were Nigeria’s cleanest election In 2010 Jonathan got rid of the corrupt director of the Election Commission He replaced the corrupt commission with respected academics All 73 million voters were fingerprinted & scanned at polls to monitor voting The 2015 elections also had the FEWEST CASUALTIES of any election so far!!!

Civil Society Nigeria

These groups help to foster some national integration. Nigeria Civil Society Organizations Under the Fourth Republic, groups and organizations have spread & strengthened NGOs get support from across the cultural spectrums; they aren’t victims of identity and ethnic politics These groups help to foster some national integration. Ethnic & religious associations have always been important to Nigerians These have promoted economic interests somewhat & help their members try to start business or save

Nigeria Civil Society MOSOP The Movement for the Survival of the Ogoni People was started by Ken Saro-Wiwa to protect his people They used a variety of legal & non legal tactics to get more financial benefits for the Ogoni people in the south They worked to protect the Niger Delta from the environmental destruction caused by the oil production They have continued their work and been successful even after Saro-Wiwa’s execution in the 1990s.

Nigeria Civil Society MEND The Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta is an umbrella group of militant subgroups They are notorious for bunkering, kidnapping foreign oil workers, and attacking oil facilities President Yar’Adua negotiated a truce & amnesty with them to reduce violence in the region, but it has not stopped it all.

Nigeria Civil Society Boko Haram Muslim extremism is on the rise in the northern parts of Nigeria Boko Haram pushes for wider application of Sharia law in the region Their presence is strongest in the northeast – currently Nigeria’s single largest threat to peace In 2014 they reached their height of global “fame” with the kidnapping of hundreds of schoolgirls

Nigeria Civil Society Muslims The Hausa & Fulani people practice orthodox Sunni Islam Some lower class Hausa practice forms of Sufi Islam which is very different. The radical extremism of Boko Haram is also at odds with mainstream Islam Some liberal Muslim groups even advocate for secular government.

Nigeria Civil Society Unions Unions of workers have some power in the political process The National Union of Petroleum and Natural Gas Workers (NUPENG) have a great deal of political leverage Unions for legal, medical, and journalism professionals have begun to articulate the political interests of a growing professional class NGOs promoting civil rights have been engaged in monitoring elections

Ethnicity Nigeria

Each group views politics somewhat in “zero sum” terms Nigeria Ethnicity Ethnicity Nigeria has more than 250 different ethnic groups & even more languages Each group views politics somewhat in “zero sum” terms A victory of some kind by one group is viewed as a blow to the interests of another. Military leaders used these fears and ethnic tensions as justification for authoritarianism, arguing that democracy exacerbated these issues

Nigeria Ethnicity Improvements To relieve these tensions, the state has… Created more states Changed the party system to force them to be multi-ethnic Moved from a parliamentary system to a presidential system Moved the capital from Lagos (Yoruba) to newly built Abuja – with no dominant ethnic group

Nigeria Ethnicity Problems Communal violence has risen since the end of military rule State can’t suppress the public as much Ethnic conflicts have killed thousands and displaced millions of Nigerians Violence almost always begins with disputes about oil revenues, jobs, or control of other resources Incomes in the northeast are less than half of those in the south Less than 5% of women in the northeast are able to read and write

Ideology Nigeria

The parties are built around individual leaders and ethnic groups Nigeria Ideology Ideology The parties are built around individual leaders and ethnic groups Ideology plays a limited role, people’s communal concerns are more important Nigerians have a low sense of patriotism, a result of their stronger local identities Some aspects of Nigerian political culture support the state and democracy Nigerians strongly oppose the idea of a political system dominated by a single party or leader

Goodluck with this stuff Nigeria

Changes to Political Parties Main Ideas Nigeria Changes to Political Parties Boko Haram Ethnic Tensions Lack of Ideology Goodluck’s Guidance