1. Citizens, Society and the State
Nigeria
Citizens, Society and the State

3. Most populous nation in Africa (177 million)
GDP per capita = $3,203 (2014)
HDI rank #152
The Economist’s Democracy Index ranking = #108 (“hybrid” of authoritarian and democracy)

4. Current trends…

5. Themes in Comparative Government
Natural resources – oil rich
Ethnic diversity
Unstable gov’ts and military dictatorships
Colonialism and military rule has created difficulties in creating democracy
Challenge of Islam and democracy

6. Essential Questions:
Will Nigeria return to the path of authoritarianism and more “under development”?
Will civilian leadership rise to achieve a true democracy and sustainable growth?

7. Sovereignty, Authority, and Power
“The national question” is an issue: Should Nigeria even be a country?
Constitutionalism – eluding Nigeria so far
First constitution in 1914, 8 more since (latest in 1999)
Military and civilian leaders alike have never felt the need to obey constitutions, and often write new ones upon taking power

8. Sovereignty, Authority, and Power
Legitimacy
Newly independent (1960)
Highly fragmented along ethnic, regional, religious lines
The single stable national institution is the military
Leads to legitimacy of military’s right to rule
Most leaders have been generals
Extremely low legitimacy of government, overall

9. Sovereignty, Authority, and Power
Legitimacy
Contradicting political traditions
Rule of Law from British colonial days
Personalized authority of military leaders since 1960
Massive corruption, distrust of government

10. Political History 3 Major Eras Pre-Colonial (800 - 1860)
Since Independence (1960 – Present)

11. Pre-Colonial Era (800 – 1860) Trends
Trade connections along Niger river with North Africa and other civilizations
Early influence of Islam – elite tended to be educated in Arabic and learned the sharia
Kinship-based politics – rule was at village level, and were basically extended families
Complex political identities – some centralized kingdoms mixed in with small village governance
Democratic impulses – rulers expected to seek counsel and govern in the interests of the people

12. Colonial Era (1860 - 1960) Trends
Authoritarian rule – British established chiefs to rule on their behalf
Interventionist state – no “free market”… chiefs expected to rule to meet economic goals set by the British
Individualism – self-interest of capitalism was mixed with state-domination of the economy
Christianity – spread mainly to south and west (Islam entrenched in the north)
Intensification of ethnic politics – Hausa-Fulani, Igbo, Yoruba competed for “rewards” from British

13. Era Since Independence (1960 – Present)
Trends
Parliamentary replaced by Presidential government in 1979 since majority was difficult to establish
Intensification of ethnic conflict – Hausa-Fulani formed a majority coalition with Igbo, angering the Yoruba
Military rule – frequent coups
Personalized rule and corruption
Federalism – attempt to pacify ethnic tension, though military leaders did not allow much local power
Economic dependence on oil – enriches those in power, who ignore other sectors of the economy

14. Era Since Independence (1960-Present)
Elected leadership in 1960, overthrown in military coup in 1966
3 more coups by 1976, Olusegun Obasanjo took power
Willfully steped down for democratically elected president in 1979
2 more coups by 1985, when Ibrahim Babangida took power
Resigned under public pressure in 1993 when he promised to step down for civilian leadership, then voided the election
Sani Abacha ( ) ruled brutally, died of a heart attack (maybe poisoned?), replaced by Vice President Abubakar
Obasanjo elected for 2 terms ( )
Umaru Yar’Adua elected in 2007
All elections finished with concerns of fraud, violence, etc.

15. Era Since Independence (1960-Present)
2012 – Pres. Jonathan announced end to fuel subsidies.
Nigeria is a major oil producer but has to import most of its fuel
Information was leaked that 15 fuel importers collected more than $300 million in 2010 without importing any fuel (Oil Management Company and state Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation were among these companies)
This led to week long national strikes by unions and protests over the double issue of corruption and an end to the subsidy.
Part of the subsidy was reinstated (Jan. 1st price had doubled to 140 naira per liter) Pres. Jonathan set price at 97 naira on January 16th
Boko Haram – translation “Western Education is sinful”
started in 2002 with goal to establish sharia law; opposes man-made laws (liberalism) and modern science
Attackes churches and Christians; assassinates Muslim clerics who criticize them
By the end of 2012 was responsible for between 3,000-10,000 deaths.

16. Nigerian “modern leaders”
Ibrahim Babangida
Military President, 1985 – 1993
Resigned

17. Sani Abacha
Military President, 1993 – 1998
Died in office

18. Olusegun Obasanjo Military President, 1976 – 1979
Resigned for democratic leadership
President, 1999 – 2007
Term limited

19. Umaru Yar’Adua
President, 2007 – 2010
Left for heart treatment in Saudi Arabia, acting Vice President Goodluck Jonathan
Yar’Adua died in 2010

20. Goodluck Jonathan
Acting President, 2010 after Yar’Adua died
Announced on Facebook he would run for re-election
2011 – won re-election with 59% of vote

21. 2015 Nigerian Elections
"I promised the country free and fair elections. I have kept my word.“ - Jonathan
8th election since 1960 and 5th since democracy restored in 1999.
Then
Now

22. 2015 Presidential Elections

23. Muhammadu Buhari Military Dictator 1983-1985
Democratically elected in 2015 (ran in 2003, 2007, 2011)
Won as leader of APC
53% vs. 44%
Abolished office of First Lady
Unconstitutional and area of corruption in nation
Promised to defeat Boko Haram

24. Political Culture
Patron-Clientelism (prebendalism) - exchange of political and economic favors to build support of the leadership – benefits usually go to ethnic and religious groups (usually oil revenues and gov’t contracts)
State attempts to control rich civil society (and mostly fails) – many independent associational groups still thriving
Tension between modernity and tradition
Religious conflict – centered on role of sharia in law and political authority

25. Geographic Influence Northwest – Hausa-Fulani, Muslim
Northeast – Kanuri, Muslim
Middle-Belt – smaller groups, mix of Muslim and Christian
Southwest – Yoruba, mix of religions
Southeast – Igbo, Catholic and Christian
South – various minorities

27. Nigerian Oil Fields

28. Citizens, Society, and the State
Necessary condition for democratization: citizens need to have time to pay attention and participate in the political process
Problem for Nigeria:
60% live in poverty
Large gap between rich and poor (Gini = .43)
Health issues – AIDS epidemic (1 in 11 AIDS carriers are Nigerian)
Literacy – 75.1% for men, 67.6% for women

29. Citizens, Society, and the State
Cleavages – one of the most fragmented societies in the world
Ethnicity – 250 to 400 distinct ethnic groups with different languages and religions in many cases
Hausa-Fulani, Igbo, and Yoruba tribes are largest, but can’t speak each other’s languages and have no contact generally
Religion – 50% Muslim, 40% Christian, 10% various native religions
Disputes rooted in preferential treatment British gave to Christians; role of sharia in Nigerian law

30. Citizens, Society, and the State
Region – North (predominantly Muslim) vs. South (predominantly Christian)
Urban/rural differences – political organizations, interest groups, media only operate in cities
Social class – elite are those with ties to the state, who often use the treasury to benefit themselves

31. Nigerian states that implement some form of Sharia law

32. Citizens, Society, and the State
Public Opinion and Political Participation
Civil Society – Voluntary organizations OUTSIDE the control of the state
some strengthen Nigerian unity, others work to fragment society on ethnic/religious lines
Movement for the Survival of the Ogoni People (MOSOP) – founded by Ken Saro-Wiwa to get oil benefits for Ogoni living in Niger Delta, hold oil companies to environmental standards
Saro-Wiwa was publicly executed in 1995

33. Citizens, Society, and the State
Public Opinion and Political Participation
Voting Behavior – no one knows how many Nigerians participate because of the irregularities in their elections (estimates around 66%)
Attitudes Toward Government – distrust of most officials, cynicism
Nigeria ranks 136 of 168 on the “Corruption Perception Index”
Abacha’s heart attack was celebrated as the “coup from heaven”

34. Citizens, Society, and the State
Public Opinion and Political Participation
Protests, Participation, and Social Movements
Increasing protest and organization/mobilization since 1999
Often focused around international oil companies

35. Linkage Institutions Political Parties Regionally based
Extreme factionalization resulted in development of so many parties, there is no coherent party system
Parties appear and disappear based on leaders

36. Linkage Institutions Political Parties
Currently:
People’s Democratic Party (PDP) – Obasanjo (1998) and Yar’Adua’s party of power, “won” in most parts of the country with Southern and Northern candidates
Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) formed in 2009 from All Nigeria People’s Party (ANPP) – General Muhammad Buhari’s party
Did not win election in 2011

37. Linkage Institutions Political Parties Currently:
Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) – merger of many parties (2006), led by Atiku Abubakar (who was disqualified from running in 2007, then reinstated by the Supreme Court days before the election)
2013 All Progressives Congress – formed from the AC, ANPP and CPC – designed to run against PDP in 2015 elections (and Goodluck Jonathan)

38. 2015 election VS

39. Results of 2015 Election

40. Linkage Institutions Why? 1998 Constitutional requirement
Parties are becoming less regional, and increasingly run a “ticket” with candidates of different regions, campaigning across all of Nigeria
Why?
1998 Constitutional requirement
Presidential candidates must receive 25% of votes cast in at least 2/3 of all states to be declared a winner. Otherwise, a run-off occurs within 7 days with top two candidates.
Attempt to prevent regional candidates from winning the presidency. Goal of a single president is to unite Nigeria

41. Linkage Institutions Elections
Independent National Election Commission (INEC) requires parties to qualify for national elections with at least 5% of votes in 2/3 of states
Legislative
109 Senators elected by popular vote (3 per state [36 states], 1 from Abuja)
360 House of Representatives elected in SMD plurality elections (360 Federal Constituencies)
Presidential
2 ballot majority system (with the regional requirement)
If not won in first ballot (25% of votes in 2/3 states), top two go to a simple run-off seven days later
All elections usually involve fraud and irregularities

42. State Institutions Federalism Executive – President and Cabinet
36 states
Doesn’t really work… dependent on central government
Executive – President and Cabinet
Directly elected – wanted to create a “national” leader (4 year term; 2 term limit)
May appoint officials to all parts of national government without approval of legislature
Controls public revenue (National Assembly has the right to pass a budget) – in USA Congress controls Federal Budget

43. State Institutions
Legislature – parliamentary until 1979, now bicameral National Assembly
Senators and Representatives serve 4 year terms, elected the week before the president
Senate
109 Senators, 3 per state, 1 from Abuja
Very diverse given the different regions that are equally represented
House of Representatives
360 members
Very little power, but occasionally acts as a check on president (like when Obasanjo wanted a 3rd term)

44. Linkage Institutions Civil Society
Labor Unions – Babangida attempted to restrain their influence through corporatism, but they are still active
Business Interests – historically collaborated with military, now push for economic reforms
Human Rights Groups – protested Babangida and Abacha, promote democracy
Mass Media – well developed, independent press in Nigeria mostly in the South, also reflective of regional divisions

45. State Institutions
Bureaucracy – assumed to be bloated, corrupt, and inefficient
Para-Statals – privately owned, but headed by government appointees (part of the patron-client network)
Provide public utilities or major industries
Nigerian Electric Power Administration (NEPA) – called “Never Expect Power Again” by Nigerians
Changed name to Power Holding Company (PHC) – called “Please Hold Candle” by Nigerians
State corporatism – para-statals serve to give the appearance of public/private cooperation, while really giving the state control

46. State Institutions Judiciary
Federal and state courts with an appeals process up to the Supreme Court
Strong and autonomous after independence, but since ravaged by military rule
Most judges today are not well versed in law, easily manipulated by the government
Theoretically in charge of judicial review, not practically
Law is complicated by the sharia which operates in 12 northern states, controversially

47. State Institutions Military
Military made distinctions between “military in government” and “military in barracks” after early coups
“Military in government” presidents (like Babangida) had to restrain influence of traditional military
Appointed senior military to cabinet positions to make them part of his patronage network
The best place for young Nigerians to improve their lives, demonstrate their talents
Controversial, but it is the one national institution with the capability to restore order

48. Public Policy Issues in Nigeria
Oil – Strength or Weakness?
Brings wealth from rents and gives Nigeria international clout, but makes Nigeria a rentier state
Structural Adjustment Policy
Collapse of oil prices in 1980’s led to massive public debt
World Bank and IMF worked to restructure Nigeria’s debt provided it would implement “shock therapy” and reduce its dependence on oil
Private economy still hasn’t expanded much since, parastatals still under state control

49. Religious and Ethnic Tensions
Niger River Delta ~2006-present
Issue is control of oil revenues and oil extraction
Protests and violence towards foreign oil companies
Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta – desires more oil revenues to the local economy
Industrial sabotage, gun running
Some companies have left, others have cut production
2011 UN report – 30 years and $41 billion to clean up oil spills in the mangroves
Shell paid $1.7 million in compensation

50. Oil Extraction in Nigeria

51. Religious and Ethnic Tensions

52. Religious and Ethnic Tensions
Problems persist in part because of the federal system:
Oil wealth and resources are centralized, so there is lack of local control
Corruption at the central and local level (police and security) is beyond the control of the federal system

53. Religious and Ethnic Tensions
Boko Haram – reading and video