Life-Course Criminology Age-Crime Relationship Stability and Change in Offending

The Age-Crime Relationship, 1997 Arrest Rate 4000 3,000 2,000 1,000 Property Crimes, peak age = 16 Violent Crimes, peak age = 18 10 20 30 40 50 Age at Arrest

Is the Age/Crime Curve Misleading? Data is AGGREGATE It could hide subgroups of offenders, or “offending trajectories” Data is Cross-Sectional Doesn’t track stability/change over time Data is OFFICIAL Cannot tell us about the precursors to official delinquency (childhood antisocial behavior)

New and Old Ideas OLD New Crime is the province of adolescents Theories of delinquency most important New Why do some age out of crime while others don’t? Why is criminality so stable over time? What causes crime at different stages of life?

Antisocial Behavior Is Stable Correlation between past and future criminal behavior ranges from .6 to .7 (very strong) Lee Robins- Studies of cohorts of males Antisocial Personality as an adult virtually requires history of CASB CASB as early as age 6 related to delinquency More severe behavior has more stability “Early onset delinquency” powerful indicator of stability

But there is CHANGE 1/2 of antisocial children are never arrested The vast majority of delinquents desist as they enter adulthood (mid 20s)

Explaining Stability and Change in Antisocial Behavior I TRAIT Explanation Individuals posses a trait that is stable and criminogenic Trait established early in life (before delinquency) Explains stability, but change (desistance)? If trait is stable, why do people desist from crime?

Explaining Stability and Change in Antisocial Behavior II Cumulative Continuity Initial antisocial behavior (regardless of cause) has CONSEQUENCES Knife off opportunity, labeling, attract delinquent peers... Because the consequences (social circumstances) can change, desistance is plausible

Types of Developmental Theory General theory Cause of antisocial behavior same for everyone People may start offending later or earlier depending on when they are exposed to the same sorts of risk factors Taxonomic Theory Different types of offenders exist

Developmental Taxonomies Developmental Taxonomy? All offenders are not the same, all crime is not caused by the same causal forces There are at least two unique “offending trajectories” present One groups maybe very stable in their offending Another might might have a brief delinquency career Kids are on different offending trajectories for different reasons

Review Explaining Stability and Change Three Types of Theories Why are some kids antisocial early in life? Why is antisocial behavior so stable? Why, amidst stability, is there so much change? Three Types of Theories Continuity Continuity and Change (Sampson and Laub) Continuity or Change (Moffitt)