INTACT Project: Guiding The User Dr. William Hynes Future Analytics Consulting (FAC) This project has received funding from the European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme for research, technological development and demonstration under grant agreement no 606799

Agenda Project background The project team Project approach The case study areas What INTACT delivers Status 01/05/2019 INTACT – Introduction

Project background INTACT is a EU funded project which aims to offer Decision Support: to Critical Infrastructure (CI) operators and policy makers regarding Critical Infrastructure Protection (CIP) against changing Extreme Weather Event (EWE) risks caused by climate change. 01/05/2019 INTACT – Introduction

Project background Key elements: Climate and Extreme Weather Collect and analyse trends, patterns and tendencies in extreme weather. Vulnerability and Resilience of European Critical Infrastructure Develop a methodological framework for CI vulnerability assessment and an analysis of CI protection measures. Risk and Risk Analysis Develop methodology and tools for risk management, and indicate gaps in risk modelling and data availability.  01/05/2019 INTACT – Introduction

Project background Key elements: Stakeholder Engagement and Dissemination Collect and disseminate best practices and bring together stakeholders. Case Studies Performing five case studies to test the developed methods. INTACT Wiki Decision support tool for CI operators and policy makers. 01/05/2019 INTACT – Introduction

The project team The project is led by TNO. 13 partners from across the EU: RTOs Industry Academia SMEs 01/05/2019 INTACT

Project approach MEANS GOAL Sustained Resilience and Realised through providing guidance on how to determine future risks due to climate change, and best practices on protective measures as well as crisis response and recovery capabilities.  Develop and demonstrate methods and tools that will enable CI operators and CIP policy makers to plan for infrastructure resilience and risks posed to CI taking account of future climate change. MEANS GOAL Sustained Resilience and Business Continuity Awareness of problem of changing EWE risks Supporting assessment of changing hazards due to climate change Supporting determination of needed mitigation measures for new risks 01/05/2019 INTACT – Introduction

The case study areas Case Study D – Southern Finland Rural electricity distribution in extreme winter conditions. Case Study B – Port of Rotterdam, The Netherlands Port of Rotterdam and its hinterland transport connections under local EWEs. Case Study A – South West Region of Ireland Extreme Weather Events which have impacted upon CI. Case Study C – Southern/Central Italy Rainfall induced landslides in the different geomorphologic contexts. Case Study E – Southern Spain Effects of drought, heatwaves and flash floods on CIs. 01/05/2019 INTACT

What INTACT delivers The INTACT Wiki is: A platform in which the knowledge, tools and methods, developed in the project are shared with the world. On it, you can find information, references, guidance and experiences on how to ensure continued resilience of critical infrastructures in the context of changing climate and related EWEs. This information is primarily directed at operators of CIs and policy makers involved with these. 01/05/2019 INTACT

What INTACT delivers The INTACT Wiki contains: Large amounts of interconnected information that attempts to cover the needs of a wide range of potential users. We provide several entry points that direct them to the various sections of the wiki that would be of most interest. A clickable graphical representation of the main elements. 01/05/2019 INTACT

What INTACT delivers Specifically, the Wiki provides public access to all required information to determine: Whether future climate change could pose a threat to my infrastructures; What vulnerabilities are relevant in these future circumstances? What is the future risk? What can I do? What are best practices? What are the cost vs. the benefits? 01/05/2019 INTACT

What INTACT delivers A look at the opening page of the Wiki: Introduction to climate change Understanding Cascading Effects Introduction to extreme weather Relationship with critical infrastructures Risk Framework Application of tools in case studies Societal Effects Interactive Map with extreme weather predictions Introduction to induced hazards Reference section: glossary and quick introduction Project information Including video To the tools and guidance 01/05/2019 INTACT

What INTACT delivers The Risk Framework Based on the classic risk terminology and approach and the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) (2014): 01/05/2019 INTACT

What INTACT delivers The key steps The Risk Framework A proven process to manage risks to CI due to changing climate conditions with for each of the “risk management” steps set within a “decision support framework”: Applicable to existing and futue scenarios; Provides explanation and guidance; Tools to support each step; References to useful resources. The key steps (based on ISO 31000) 01/05/2019 INTACT

What INTACT delivers The Decision Support Framework The INTACT Overall decision framework features the risk process that will support an end-user in undertaking a complete risk management process concerning risks related to changing climate or weather conditions. 01/05/2019 INTACT

What INTACT delivers Factors of vulnerability and resilience have been identified through historic data and analysis of CI structure and stakeholder interviews, and have been subdivided into: Generic vulnerability and resilience factors; Infrastructure-specific vulnerability and resilience factors; Societal, economic, cultural, institutional and physical factors. Table are sortable, so user can search for: CI vulnerable to specific threat Vulnerabilities of specific CI sector or subsector References to pages explaining vulnerabilities 01/05/2019 INTACT

What INTACT delivers The Tools and Guidance Within Step 5 “Proposals for action” This step in the risk management process is concerned with deriving potentially suitable mitigation measures, and assessing whether they can contribute to reducing the risk to CI. Numerous tools and methods are presented to assess proposals for action: Brainstorming and workshops, Interviews and questionnaires, Delphi method, Field visits, Deterministic weather/hazard models, Scenario analysis, Cause-and-effect analysis, Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA). 01/05/2019 INTACT

What INTACT delivers The Tools and Guidance Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) 01/05/2019 INTACT

What INTACT delivers The Interactive Map An interactive map with data on changes in frequency and strength of extreme weather events. For the short-term (2011-2040), medium (2041–2070) and the long-term (2071–2100) time periods. For each 30*30 km cell on the map of Europe. Specifying: Expected frequency/strength, change per year, difference with current situation; For temperature, precipitation, snow, wind and combinations thereof. 01/05/2019 INTACT

What INTACT delivers The workings of the Interactive Map Select time period Select type of extreme weather (precipitation, snow, temperature, wind, or combinations of these) Select extreme weather indicator (EWI) associated with the above event View legend with explanation of EWI and scales Select whether to illustrate: Expected values; Change of values compared to now; Expected change of value per year. 01/05/2019 INTACT

Status Content almost complete Testing content in cases and adding user feedback in progress (Sept – Oct 2016) Project ends April 2017 http://www.intact-project.eu/ 01/05/2019 INTACT

INTACT Project: Guiding The User Dr. William Hynes Future Analytics Consulting (FAC) email – william.hynes@futureanalytics.ie Contact Number – 00 353 1 6394836 01/05/2019 INTACT