Understanding Progress 8

Staggered introduction of 9-1 grades

Who did better? Student A Student B English Language – Grade 6 English Literature – Grade 7 Maths – Grade 4 Combined Science – Grade 4 Combined Science – Grade 3 RE – Grade 4 German – Grade 2 History – Grade 6 Music – Grade 5 PE- Grade 8 English Language – Grade 8 English Literature – Grade 7 Maths – Grade 7 Combined Science – Grade 7 RE – Grade 4 Geography – Grade 5 History – Grade 6 Drama – Grade 8 Music- Grade 4

Attainment 8 = 54 Each pupil gets an Attainment 8 score 14 + 8 +6 +4 Student A Results 2018 English Language – Grade 6 English Literature – Grade 7 Maths – Grade 4 Combined Science – Grade 4 Combined Science – Grade 3 RE – Grade 4 German – Grade 2 History – Grade 6 Music – Grade 5 PE- Grade 8 = 54 14 + 8 +6 +4 +3 +8 +6 +5 14 + 8 +6 +4 +3 +8 +6 +5 = 5.4 10

Attainment 8 = 70 16 +14 +7 +7 +6 +8 +7 +5 16 +14 +7 +7 +6 +8 +7 +5 Student B Results 2018 English Language – Grade 8 English Literature – Grade 7 Maths – Grade 7 Combined Science – Grade 7 RE – Grade 4 Geography – Grade 5 History – Grade 6 Drama – Grade 8 Music- Grade 4 = 70 16 +14 +7 +7 +6 +8 +7 +5 16 +14 +7 +7 +6 +8 +7 +5 = 7.0 10

KS2 AVG Points Score National data 1.5 13.89 2 15.7 2.5 17.76 2.8 19.1 2.9 20.77 3 22.27 3.1 22.83 3.2 22.82 3.3 24.52 3.4 25 3.5 26.09 3.6 27.27 3.7 28.38 3.8 29.28 3.9 30.4 4 31.65 4.1 32.82 4.2 33.98 4.3 35.72 4.4 37.42 4.5 39.03 4.6 41.28 4.7 42.96 4.8 45.2 4.9 47.63 5 49.99 5.1 52.62 5.2 54.89 5.3 57.59 5.4 60.68 5.5 63.81 5.6 67.35 5.7 71.79 5.8 76.75

Progress 8 Each Pupils Attainment 8 figure is then compared to the national figure for all pupils with the same KS2 Score Student A (Key stage 2 APS = 4.9) Attainment 8 score = 54 National average in 2018 (for all pupils with KS2 APS = 4.9) = 47.63 Progress 8 score 54-47.63 = 6.37 6.37 ÷ 10 = 0.637 This means that he achieved 6 (and a bit) grades more than other pupils with the same prior attainment at KS2…or just over half a grade better in every subject Student B (Key stage 2 APS = 5.7) Attainment 8 score = 70 National average in 2018 (for all pupils with KS2 APS = 5.7) = 71.79 Progress 8 score 70-71.79 = -1.79 -1.37 ÷ 10 = -0.179 This means that she achieved (nearly) 2 grades less than other pupils with the same prior attainment at KS2

Whole school Progress 8 All Pupils progress 8 scores are then averaged out to give the whole school progress 8 score Pupil No. Name Progress 8 score 1 Student A +0.637 2 Student B -0.137 … Student … 224 Student …. +0.001 Sum +16.72 224 pupils so 16.72/224 = +0.07

So what does it mean?? If the school P8 figure was +0.5 Every pupil in every subject is getting half a grade better than pupils nationally with the same ability. Or For every 100 Exam results, 50 of them are 1 grade higher than ‘expected’ e.g In Dormston we have a cohort of 224 pupils. That’s 224 x 10 results = 2240 results and 1120 of them would be 1 grade higher than expected

So what does it mean?? If the school P8 figure was -0.2 Every pupil in every subject is getting 2 tenths of a grade worse than pupils nationally with the same ability. For every 100 Exam results, 20 of them are 1 grade too low. e.g In Dormston we have a cohort of 224 pupils. That’s 224 x 10 results = 2240 results and 448 of them would be 1 grade lower than expected

What is our P8 for 2018? Class of 2018 = -0.02 (Every student is 2 hundredths of a grade below expectations on average or 2 out of every 100 exam results are 1 grade too low (44 out of 2240)

What about in Years 7,8 and 9 The students in Year 7, 8 and 9 don’t have a KS2 score in NC levels (4.5, 4.6, 4.7….) they have a ‘standardised score’ (99, 100, 101, 102 etc). This means there is not yet any national data for us to make comparisons with. We (along with lots of other schools) use a company called Fisher Family Trust (FFT) who have access to the universal set of data from all year groups across the entire country. They generate a Year 11 target grade based on 3 things (Prior attainment, Gender and Month of Birth.) They compare each student to ‘similar’ students. We use this end of Year 11 target and work it backwards in equal steps all the way down to Year 7.

Flightpaths…. YR 11 YR 10 YR 9 YR 8 YR 7 2- 1+ 1- w5 W4 2= 2+ 1= w6 3- 3= 3+ 4- 4= 4+ 5- 5= 5+ 6- 6= 6+ 7- 7= 7+ 8- 8= 8+ 9- 9= 9+ Flightpaths….

FFT(20) We actually use FFT(20) targets. This means we use the most common grade of all ‘similar’ students ranked in the 20th percentile. This is approximately half a grade more challenging than FFT(50). As a school we have high (but realistic) expectations. So for example a boy born in May with an average KS2 standardised score of 104 might get a FFT(20) target grade of a 5+. This means that out of all the ‘similar’ students in the country the 20th percentile student would get a grade 5+.

FFT - Value Added In each subject a student gets a target grade for the end of the year. We then work out a VA score for each subject If a student’s target is a 4+ and he actually achieves a grade 5 then the VA is +1 (1 ‘full’ grade higher than expected). If they got a 3- , the VA would be -1 etc We then average out all of these scores to give an overall VA which tells us if that student is On target, underperforming or exceeding expectations.

Student A – FFT VA Subject Grade Target VA English Language 6 5- +1 English Literature 7 5= +2 Maths 4 4+ Combined Science -1 3 -2 RS 5+ German 2 History Music 5 PE 8 +3 Average VA = 0.1