JOINT UN-ECE/EUROSTAT MEETING ON POPULATION AND HOUSING CENSUSES GENEVA, 7-9 JULY 2010 BEYOND 2011: BUILDING A UK POPULATION SYSTEM FOR THE FUTURE IAN WHITE, Office for National Statistics, UNITED KINGDOM

UK STATISTICAL OFFICES England and Wales Office for National Statistics (ONS) Scotland General Register Office for Scotland (GROS) Northern Ireland Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA) GROS, Edinburgh

Population statistics since 1801 John Rickman, first census taker in 1801

Population statistics since 1801 Current data on the population Counts sex, age, marital status, etc Flows births, deaths, gross migration Structures households, families Characteristics ethnicity, economic activity, health, etc Geography NUTS 0, NUTS 1 ……… LAU 2 plus Output Areas John Rickman, first census taker in 1801

Components of population change, UK mid-1998 to mid-2008

Alternative approaches Traditional field enumeration Self-completion questionnaire - UK, Ireland Internet completion - Slovakia, Canada, UK Interviewer questionnaire - Albania, Greece, Romania Fully register-based Census - Austria, Denmark, Finland, Norway, Sweden Combined (any mix of field enumeration, surveys, registers) – Italy, Estonia, Germany, Spain, Switzerland Rolling Census - France Long-form/short form - USA

Beyond 2011 Project High level aims Feasibility of using integrated data sources Alternative data sources

Beyond 2011 Work programme

Risks and issues Undermine response to the 2011 Census No population register Data quality Maintenance Public attitudes Cross-government support Funding

Advantages and disadvantages of alternative data sources Census Well established Rich data Flexible Small populations Accurate Checkable A known quantity But Snapshot in time Infrequent Expensive Burdensome Dependent on public response

Advantages and disadvantages of alternative data sources Surveys Rich data Reactive Low cost Frequent But Sample only Estimates Still some burden Declining response rates

Advantages and disadvantages of alternative data sources Administrative registers Minimal cost Less burdensome Continuous High granularity But Non statistical Variable coverage Variable quality Not all census topics covered Inflexible Non-comparable No control Legal issues

Data models and potential options The Census provides a population spine

Data models and potential options The Census provides a population spine Administrative data is used for population estimates

Data models and potential options The Census provides a population spine Administrative data is used for population estimates A survey or rolling census is used

Conclusions Early days Options to be reviewed and assessed No decision on traditional 2021 Census yet Strong requirement for a culture change

Culture change Nous ne fournissons pas l'information, nous la rassemblons seulement !

Culture change Thank you Nous ne fournissons pas l'information, nous la rassemblons seulement !