Towards a systematic treatment of value-ladeness in IA modelling

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Presentation transcript:

Towards a systematic treatment of value-ladeness in IA modelling Penny Kloprogge

Contents Choices in modelling Value-ladeness Introduction Consequences of choices Making choices Value-ladeness Steps in the Value-ladeness project Research agenda MUST

Some choices in the modelling process Which data sets? What input variables? outcome variables? underlying theory? assumptions to make? What parameter values to choose? What policy measures to include? How deal with uncertainties? Which aggregation level? scenarios to run? How link interdisciplinary modules? How set problem boundaries? Which modelling method? How set up equations? What causal relationships? Treat variables endogenous or exogenous?

Consequences of choices Certain knowledge and perspectives are incorporated in the model -> value-ladeness The model and the outcomes may depend significantly on choices made Different outcomes may lead to different understandings and policy advise

Making choices (1) Choices influenced by: objectives; restrictions; common practice; choices/wishes of others; values of the person making the choice Interpretation Preferences Moral convictions Influenced by Culture, training, experience, perspective on risk, etc

Making choices (2) Not just the choice making itself matters, but also: Determining that an issue requires choices to be made Making an inventory of options Evaluating the choice There is a choice process, containing several steps

Value-ladeness System characteristics -> determines room for value-ladeness Societal relevance of the issue -> influences importance value-ladeness

Steps in the Value-ladeness project (1) Making an inventory of types and sources of value-ladeness Mapping which types and sources are currently dealt with in practice using uncertainty strategies, through stakeholder involvement, through peer review, good practice guidelines

Steps in the Value-ladeness project (2) Developing recommendations for a more systematic and more comprehensive treatment of value-ladeness recommendations with regard to application of methods checklist that can be used by modellers that helps create awareness on value-ladeness of choices helps communicate value-laden issues helps incorporate plurality

Research agenda MUST Testing checklist-instrument Dissemination conceptual framework and checklist-instrument Research into cultural and institutional changes required for transparent treatment of value-ladeness Value-ladeness in the utilisation of model based knowledge in policy processes

IA modelling and the policy process