The need for a systems approach Energy Planning The need for a systems approach

The systems approach 1. Identify all the issues to be considered including: o Cost o Security of supply o Environment o National economy 2. Create a requirements (exigence) statement based on these issues

The systems approach for electricity generation planning 3. Identify options and assess them using a range of techniques including: o Risk analysis o Predictive modelling o Analysis of data o Cost-benefit analysis

The systems approach for electricity generation planning 4. Select the option that, on balance, best satisfies the requirements 5. Develop the plan based on this option

The systems approach for electricity generation planning The performance of the system would be carefully monitored Alternative strategies would be used if performance is unsatisfactory

The Popper principle Scientists should seek to show that their theories are false rather than to show that they are true. Seeking to show that a proposition is true has a higher risk of reaching a wrong conclusion than seeking to show that the proposition is false.

The Popper principle Proposition: Wind power is a good method of satisfying the policy objectives. Seeking to show that the proposition is true: No resource depletion issues  Free at point of capture  No carbon emissions at generator Seeking to show the proposition is false: Needs to be discounted for meeting peak demand  Very expensive  Causes carbon emissions in the system

The Popper principle Better to try to prove that you are wrong and fail than to try to prove that you are right and succeed

Energy The global context

Resource depletion Oil Has oil already peaked? When will it peak?

Gas Shale gas appears to have a very high potential to provide energy that is: o Secure for a good number of decades o Affordable o Nationally available

Coal Severe problems with emissions Good reserves in UK Reserves worldwide but may not be as good as is believed and China is using coal at a very fast rate. Carbon Capture with Storage (CCS) - untested at the required scale

Nuclear Very good long term fuel source prospects if uranium and thorium are used and breeder reactors are used Health risks may be relatively low Problem of waste storage is solvable

Global prospects for reducing carbon emissions/fossil fuel use The world population is increasing - more energy use Every nation is promoting economic growth - more energy use Large scale renewable energy - technology not available Significant per capita energy use reduction - unlikely to be achieved in the near future We should keep working at it but should go in the directions that have the best potential

Scottish contribution Heating - 42% UK energy use proportions Transport - 35% Electricity 23% What would the Scottish contribution be to global reduction in CO2 production if all electricity was carbon free in Scotland? UK energy production - 2% of global Scottish proportion of UK - 10% Proportion from electricity - 23% Contribution = .02 x .1 x .23 = 0.05%

Scottish contribution If we are to show an example we should do it right

Electricity generation Thermal Oil Gas Coal Nuclear Renewable Wind Wave Tidal Biomass Waste Geothermal Solar Hydro

Wind energy

UK electricity demand 7 December 2010

% Installed capacity 07.12.10

Wind prediction using UGRIB Monday 5 December 2012 21

UK Wind prediction using UGRIB Monday 5 December 2012 22

Fig 2 Evolution de la puissance cumulée: 10 novembre au 15 décembre 2030 (selon profil 2010) Puissance totale: 156.500 MW Grand froid Puissance max: 106.300 MW soit 68 % et Puissance min: 10.850 MW soit 6,9 % Pointe d’évolution: 9600 MW/heure Puissance moyenne: 36.700 soit 24,8 % 26.300 soit 16,8% sur 15 jours (15 au 30 nov.) 13.200 soit 8,4 % sur 36 h (26 au 28 nov.) 24/11/2011 "Sauvons le climat" J-P Pervès 23

(Surface) Power density Wind power density - 2 W/m2 Tidal stream power density - 6 W/m2 Nuclear power density - 1000 W/m2

2. Cost Cost is an engineering issue In professional engineering cost is normally the key criterion in decision making. The cost of electricity generation cannot be adequately assessed by accountants. Understanding of the engineering issues is essential.

3. Emissions reduction There are no CO2 emissions at wind power generators. But from a system viewpoint, the production of wind power does result in CO2 emissions. To cater for intermittent wind power, thermal generators need to be operated inefficiently and therefore they produce more CO2 and use more fuel than they would otherwise do. Studies for other countries suggest that this is an important issue. This issue needs to be a major feature of a system study

Controlling the Grid Frequency - 500.5 hz Hydro Open-cycle gas turbine (OCGT) Efficiency 30% Combined cycle gas turbine (GCGT) Efficiency 50% Coal

Wind generation in Denmark

Information about energy Much, if not most, of the information available about electricity generation methods: o is not based on consideration of all relevant issues o has not been subject to comparison with other options o has not been generated from best available sources

Basic principles One should be sceptical about all reports on energy unless they are based on a systems analysis study The principle that energy planning should be based on a systems approach should be promoted.

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