Regional Demographic Review 2045 LONG RANGE TRANSPORTATION PLAN Regional Demographic Review January 28, 2019

How Have We Grown? 2006 – 2016 Annual Growth 0.77% 1.36% 0.86% Sarasota Manatee Charlotte 1970 2016 Growth Sarasota Manatee Charlotte 122,342 97,594 27,977 399,538 357,591 170,450 277,196 259,997 142,473 Total Growth 2006 – 2016 Sarasota – 29, 500 Manatee – 45,195 Charlotte – 13,959

1990 Population County 1990 Manatee 216,563 Sarasota 279,748 Charlotte 112,821

2016 Population County 1990 2016 Manatee 216,563 357,591 Sarasota 279,748 399,538 Charlotte 112,821 170,450

2040 LRTP Projected Population County 1990 2016 2040 Manatee 216,563 357,591 469,100 Sarasota 279,748 399,538 518,100 Charlotte 112,821 170,450 207,214

Median Age County County Rank Charlotte 66 Sarasota 64 Manatee 54 Of Florida’s 67 counties, only Sumter has a higher median age than Charlotte County 58 55 47 42 38

Employment Trends Since 2010: 58,000 new jobs | 20% growth Average earnings have risen 14% from $38,500 to $44,000 2016 Florida Average Earnings was $48,600 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis; CAINC30 Economic Profile; November 15, 2018

Commute Patterns Indicator Sarasota County Manatee County Charlotte County Average Commute Time (Minutes) 23.6 25.4 24.7 Drove Alone 83.1% 79.7% 79% Carpooled 6.7% 8.7% 8.8% Public Transportation 0.7% 0.8% 0.2% Walking 0.9% 1.4% 1.0% Bicycle 0.5% 1.1% Worked at Home 6.6% 7.5% 7.7% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2017 American Community Survey (5-Year Sample)

Population and Employment 49,464 Workers in Charlotte County Area Where People who Live in Charlotte County Work. 42% Stay within County 14% Sarasota County 3% Tampa Bay Area 14% Lee County 4% Southwest Florida 22% out of Region 17% 42% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, OnTheMap Application, http://onthemap.ces.census.gov 18%

Population and Employment 43,540 Jobs in Charlotte County Where People who Work in Charlotte County Live. 48% Stay within County 18% Sarasota and Manatee Counties 14% Southwest Florida 5% Tampa Bay Area 15% out of Region 5% 18% 48% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, OnTheMap Application, http://onthemap.ces.census.gov 14% 10

Population and Employment 258,000 Workers in Sarasota/Manatee Area 5% Where People who Live in Sarasota/Manatee Work. 66% Stay within Two-County region 13% Tampa Bay Area 5% Central Florida 4% Southwest Florida Remaining 12% out of Region 13% 66% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, OnTheMap Application, http://onthemap.ces.census.gov 4%

Population and Employment 247,000 Jobs in Sarasota/Manatee Area Where People who Work in Sarasota/Manatee Live. 69% Stay within Two-County region 8% Tampa Bay Area 3% Central Florida 5% Southwest Florida Remaining 12% out of Region 8% 3% 69% 5% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, OnTheMap Application, http://onthemap.ces.census.gov

Population and Employment North Port and Englewood 11% 89% 27% 63% 24,007 Workers in North Port/Englewood 11% work in the area 89% work outside the area 9,756 Jobs in North Port/Englewood 27% live in the area 63% live outside the area 6,185 Jobs in North Port 2,086 Workers from North Port (34%) 4,099 Workers outside North Port (66%) 19,887 Workers living in North Port 2,086 Work in North Port (10%) 17,081 Work outside North Port (90%) Source: U.S. Census Bureau, OnTheMap Application, http://onthemap.ces.census.gov

Where is Housing? Single family homes affordable at or below 100% Average Median Income (AMI) 35% of single family homes affordable in Sarasota/Manatee with AMI of $70,300 37% of single family homes affordable in Charlotte County with AMI of $58,300 Source: FDOR and HUD

Housing Choices & Affordability 2017 Median Household Income 2017 Median Home Values Housing Choices & Affordability

Visitors by plane will double by 2035 From 2015 to 2035, visitors by plane will increase from 1,028,611 to 2,117,492 Source: FDOT Commercial Service Enplanement Forecast, https://www.fdot.gov/aviation/flpub.shtm

Truck Traffic will increase - 2010 to 2040

Roadway Fatality Rates Source: FDOT State Safety Office (1/4/2019) * Based on analysis conducted for Sarasota/Manatee MPO Safety Target Setting (January 2018)

Roadway Serious Injury Rates Source: FDOT State Safety Office (1/4/2019) * Based on analysis conducted for Sarasota/Manatee MPO Safety Target Setting (January 2018)

At-Risk Coastal Population Population living in High Risk Flood Areas Source: FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Maps

At-Risk Coastal Population Population living in High Risk Flood Areas 26% of Single Family Homes in Sarasota/Manatee MPO are at-risk 35% of Single Family Homes in Charlotte/Punta Gorda MPO are at-risk Source: FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Maps

What does the future hold? 2016 – 2045 Annual Growth What does the future hold? 0.93% 1.50% 0.88% Sarasota Manatee Charlotte 2016 2045 Growth Sarasota Manatee Charlotte 399,538 357,591 170,450 522,600 550,800 219,600 123,062 193,209 49,150 Economy Current job mix supports tourism and retail – Florida as a whole Recent increases in working age population (ACS 2016 5-Yr average) Planned improvements at Port Manatee Florida Chamber’s six pillars economic development strategy Technology Telecommuting and remote office locations Land use influences for development and redevelopment Coastal and Environmental Concerns US EPA proposed revised definition for Waters of United States – Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge Vulnerabilities Water Quality – Red Tide Source: BEBR January 2018 Medium-Level Projections Volume 51, Bulletin 180

R esilient Environment E conomic Diversity G rowing Strategically 2045 LONG RANGE TRANSPORTATION PLAN OUR R esilient Environment E conomic Diversity G rowing Strategically I nterdependent Communities O ne Region N ext Generation Technologies