Evaluation of CAFE scenarios and outstanding modelling issues Markus Amann International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

Contents The final CAFE scenario –Environmental objectives –Results –Benefits –Macro-economic impacts Further steps towards the NEC revision –Bilateral consultations –Model improvements –Time table

Environmental objectives of the CAFE scenario

Environmental targets of the EU Thematic Strategy Environmental effect Targeted improvement compared to baseline Costs PM health impacts30.8 million life years gained 6.0 mill. /yr EutrophicationAdditional km 2 ecosystems protected 3.9 mill. /yr AcidificationAdditional km 2 ecosystems protected 3.8 mill /yr Ozone1300 premature deaths per year avoided 2.9 mill /yr Environmental effect Targeted improvement compared to baseline Costs PM health impacts30.8 million life years gained 5.9 bill. /yr EutrophicationAdditional km 2 ecosystems protected 3.9 bill. /yr AcidificationAdditional km 2 ecosystems protected 3.8 bill /yr Ozone1300 premature deaths per year avoided 2.9 bill /yr Joint optimizationAll targets7.1 bill /yr

Per-capita costs of the Thematic Strategy scenario

Gain in statistical life expectancy for the CAFE scenario (months)

Benefits of the CAFE scenarios Source: CAFE benefit analysis, Holland et al., 2005

Macro-economic impacts of the CAFE scenarios compared to the baseline 2020 Source: CAFE benefit analysis, Holland et al., 2005

Environmental improvements of the CAFE scenario Impact indicator in 2000 = 100%

Next steps Bilateral consultations –with 21 EU Member States, Norway: completed –+ Switzerland, Bulgaria, Romania, Croatia, Russia, Ukraine –All available and approved EGTEI results incorporated NEC baseline scenario: Spring 2006 Model improvements: Spring 2006 –Updated energy baseline projections (national and PRIMES) –City-Delta 3 for urban increments (improved population data, 2 more cities, improved validation) –Updated critical loads data –Multi-year meteorology –GAINS optimization: synergies with greenhouse gas mitigation Policy scenarios: Rest of 2006