Developing a modal split for urban mobility and medium distance passenger transport Paolo Bolsi DG MOVE - Unit A3 Economic Analysis and Impact Assessment First taskforce on Passenger Mobility, 10th April 2014

The 2011 White Paper strategy 4 “i”s, 40 actions and 10 goals nternal market: Create a genuine Single European Transport Area by eliminating all residual barriers between modes and national systems. I nnovation: EU research needs to address the full cycle of research, innovation and deployment in an integrated way. I nfrastructure: EU transport infrastructure policy needs a common vision and sufficient resources. The costs of transport should be reflected in its price in an undistorted way. I nternational: Opening up third country markets in transport services, products and investments continues to have high priority. I

Selected goals from the White Paper (1) Halve the use of conventionally fuelled cars in urban transport by 2030; phase them out in cities by 2050. Achieve essentially CO2-free city logistics in major urban cities by 2030. (2) By 2050 the majority of medium distance passenger transport (> 300 km and < 1.000 km) should go by rail.

Indicators needed (1) Transport activity in urban areas, expressed in pkm for various modes (buses, passenger cars and vans, powered two-wheelers, rail, tram and metro) and by technology of vehicles (for passenger cars); (2) Transport activity by distance class (> 300 km and < 1.000 km) in pkm for all passenger modes (coaches, passenger cars, passenger vans, powered two-wheelers, rail, aviation, and inland navigation).

How to measure urban mobility One of the main methodological problems for this project is to find a way to calculate mobility within an urban area. According to the glossary of transport statistics, 4th edition: Urban road traffic Traffic carried out in an urban area by road vehicles. Portions of journeys involving a relatively short passage over urban roads are not counted as urban traffic.

Definitions of Urban area - 1 Glossary of transport statistics, 4th edition: Area within the administrative boundary or a set of administrative boundaries of a core city (settlement). Urban areas may be classified by size according to number of inhabitants: a) 10 000 to 49 999 – small; b) 50 000 to 249 999 – medium; c) 250 000 or more – large. Urban areas will comprise territorial units having a larger number of inhabitants, with most of those, but not necessarily all, living in built-up areas. Built-up areas may include villages and towns in rural districts.

Definitions of Urban area - 2 DG REGIO Degree of urbanization Based on agglomeration of grids of 1 km2 into clusters, and then into LAU2 units: Densely-populated areas/cities/large urban areas: at least 50 % of the population lives in high-density clusters. Intermediate density areas/towns and suburbs/small urban areas: less than 50 % of the population lives in rural grid cells and less than 50 % lives in high-density clusters. Thinly-populated areas/rural areas: more than 50 % of the population lives in rural grid cells.

Definitions of Urban area - 3 DG REGIO/OECD Commuting zones Functional areas determined by the population living in an urban centre and by the commuters travelling to the urban centre, according to the 2001 Census. Sometimes the commuting zones may be pretty large (e.g. Berlin)

Isolating urban mobility One of the main problems to measure urban mobility from travel diaries is to allocate a trip to the corresponding area. 1) Is it possible to get postal codes of the respondent and of the trip destinations, so to exclude trips outside urban areas? 2) Could we reasonably assume that a respondent living in a commuting zone travels within the area of the commuting zone?

Exclude longer trips Can we exclude some trips which most probably are made outside the commuting zone? How? 1) By using an average threshold for trips (e.g. 20 km) 2) By using a relative threshold depending on the size of the corresponding commuting zone 3) By recurring to a statistical test over trip lengths and removing the furthest from average.

How to get technical data? The WP indicator will require also some technical information on passenger cars, in order to monitor the progress of use of non-conventionally fuelled vehicles (e.g. hybrids). What could be feasible? Asking to the respondent about technical details of the car? Asking to the respondent his vehicle information number and crossing it with the information in national vehicle registers?

Medium distance passenger transport The second indicator for passenger transport for the WP requires to distinguish activity within the medium distance, conventionally set between 300 and 1000 km. Some member states collect information on medium and long distance travels with the travel surveys. Additionally, tourism statistics collect information on the main mode of transport for a trip, where a "trip" corresponds to a journey outside the common area of interest of the respondent, which requires at least an overnight stay. Which methodology will be better for our purposes?

Suggestions are welcome!