NOAAs Role in Renewable Energy Don Berchoff, NWS Director, Office of Science and Technology AMS Summer Community Meeting August 2009, Norman, Oklahoma

1 Outline The Imperative NOAAs Role Primary Gaps Primary Challenges Proposed Wayahead

2 The Imperative Statement of Administration Policy 27 Jul 09 Build a new economy powered by clean and secure energy *

3 NOAAs Role Science, Technology & Services for America –Applied research, development and improvement –Observation and monitoring--remote and in situ –Modeling, assessment and prediction –Data warehousing/management –Decision Support Services to Federal, State, Local governments Leverage State, Industry, & Academia –Science and technology innovation –Spatial planning, permitting, and licensing –Metadata/data management and communication

4 NOAAs Role Enable Americas Economic Productivity/Competitive Advantage Weather Information Data Base ( ) WIDB Cube Custom Graphic Generators Custom Graphic Generators Governmental Decision Making Decision Support Systems Decision Support Systems Custom Alphanumeric Generators Custom Alphanumeric Generators Observations Numerical Prediction Systems Numerical Prediction Systems Postprocessed Probabilistic Output Postprocessed Probabilistic Output NWS Forecaster NWS Forecaster Forecasting Automated Forecast Systems Automated Forecast Systems Forecast Integration Radars Aircraft Surface Satellites Soundings Private Sector Weather Industry Private Industry

5 Primary Science Gaps Observational data and data assimilation; improved temporal and spatial variability are needed Direct solar beam and satellite irradiance Planetary boundary layer winds, turbulence, friction, shear... Temperature, moisture, precipitation, and icing Aerosol and cloud cover, solar radiance Space weather Models; require improved temporal and spatial resolution, data assimilation, verification Ocean/lake circulation, waves, tides, currents Coupled land use and ecology

6 Primary Challenges Optimal Siting of Wind Farms Maximize wind resource potential Minimize environmental footprint Avoid impacts on mission critical use of NOAAs Doppler weather radar Wind turbines can create clutter that appears as storms on Doppler Des Moines NEXRAD (KDMX) on July 19, 2007 Dodge City, KS NEXRAD (KDDC) on Feb Corrupted Doppler Velocities can negatively impact warnings and alerts

7 Primary Challenges Identifying private industry requirements for WIDB contents to: –Optimize Americas renewable energy productivity/reliability at lowest cost –Ensure competitive advantage in the global market Short-range forecasting of industry-sensitive weather parameters Resourcing High Performance Computing to meet National needs Enabling private sector contributions to WIDB for the National and private sector gooddata proprietary rights/restrictions Conflicting land, coastal, and marine planning Resolving radar proximity and competing/ mixed use Others?

8 Proposed Wayahead Enable Public/Private partnerships to fill gaps –collect and manage proprietary data, certify anonymity and feedback, to improve data quality, standardized modeling and derived products –contributions to the Weather Information Data Base (WIDB or 4D Data Cube) NOAA enables industry effectiveness and productivity, relevant to energy supply, demand, distribution, and management –provide and improve timely and spatially-specific/gridded forecasts Integrated National Mesonet Contribute to Closing observing gaps Advanced data assimilationHybrid 4D-Var/EnKF Next Generation National Global Model Accurate/reliable probabilistic forecasts of sensible weather parameters –acquire necessary IT and high performance computing resources –easy access to WIDB NOAA supports collaborative extramural science research and technology transfer programs, projects and activities

9 Work together to mitigate radar/wind farm siting issues –MOU between wind energy industry and federal agencies Early notification Early consultation to seek low-impact siting alternatives Curtail turbine operations during significant weather events Radar protection/consultation zones –Research & Development Quantitative assessment modeling tools Radar – based solutions (e.g., signal processing, modeling) Wind Turbine – based solutions (e.g., stealthy towers/blades) –National clearing house for developers to submit project plans…..all federal agencies…..earlier impact assessment Proposed Wayahead

10 Questions?

11 Notional Wind Turbine Impact (When Turbines in Radar Line of Sight) IMPACTS within RLOS --Clutter --Algorithm Impacts --Some Workarounds Available IMPACTS up to 3km --Partial Attenuation of Radar Beam --Personnel Safety (within 200 meters) --Limited or No Workarounds IMPACTS up to 18km --Multi-path Scatter --Multiple Elevation Scans Impacted --Bulk Cable Interference --Difficult to work around

12 Technology Transfer Practices Requirements-driven Research and Development –Grants, contracts, and agreements –Cooperative Institutes, Regional Associations, Testbeds Data Management (Exchange and transfer) –Licensing Agreements, –Memoranda of Understanding Anonymous data transfer policy, assimilation, Q/C –Data archiving and access - Public-Private Policy Modeling and Mapping –Standards and infrastructure Sustainable Transition to Operations –Early and enduring stakeholder engagement –Requirements and cost effectiveness analysis –Performance-based budgeting –Product life-cycle planning and service orientation

13 Leveraging Expertise Moving Forward Integrated Observations –Mesoscale network-of-networks –Special area platforms and partnerships Physical and ecological complexity; Higher resolution –Data management and communication Data integration; Metadata and quality practices Data Exchange, quality control, and assimilation IT infrastructure and real-time communications Resource modeling and forecasting –Earth-system model framework –Standard physical models and ecological forecasting –Uncertainty information and probabilistic forecasts

14 Leveraging Expertise Moving Forward Risk management and mitigation –Impact-based forecasting; variability and co-variability Wind, ice, heat, turbulence, precipitation, hydrology... Spatial planning and permit support –Geospatial information on land and off-shore –Gridded models and digital forecasts –Portals and decision tools; 4-D databases Applied research –Utilize and make efficient complementary technology –Transition to operations