BMF workshop presentation: An overview of the adaptation process and resources that can help you to adapt Paul Buckley and Julian Wright

Set up in 2005 to transfer science to decision makers 25 organisations, mostly across UK and devolved governments, agencies, science organisations and NGOs Work with 100+ scientists to produce authoritative reports Includes ports / shipping; marine recreation and tourism New adaptation work to bridge gap between climate impacts knowledge and capacity of organisations to respond Work closely with EA climate ready Introduction to MCCIP

In October 2011, Environment Agency took over the role of providing advice and support to businesses and public sector organisations in England to help them adapt to a changing climate: Climate Ready Climate Ready provides: Core information (generic advice and support) Theme-specific support for 7 themes Aim to work with and through others to embed adaptation Introduction to Climate Ready

The BMF states that the... Climate change will affect the quality of the natural environment and BMF would like to ensure that its members are fully aware of the issues. Whilst climate change is unlikely to be your main business driver, when combined with other economic and social drivers it could be an increasingly important issue. We want to help you take a balanced, pragmatic view of climate change impacts, exposing issues you may not have considered and alleviating concerns in others. Focus here on adapting to climate change impacts, rather than reducing emissions Why does climate change matter?...future of the recreational boating industry really does rely on the quality of the natural environment to retain and encourage people to take part in all water based recreational activities

A few reasons why people in the industry care

Climate change and its implications for business Adapting to a changing climate workshop Next steps Our role...is to help you consider climate change risks and opportunities, both to expose issues and alleviate concerns in other areas. Ultimately up to you as managers to take ownership of issues as you see fit Workshop outline

Climate change and its implications for business Adapting to a changing climate workshop Next steps

Year Global temperatures are rising…

Changes are set to continue…

Hot 2003 European summer: human activities have doubled the risk

observations Medium-High emissions (modelled) European summer temperatures Source: Peter Stott, Hadley Centre This type of summer could be normal by 2040s, cool by 2080s

2080s +9.5ºC 2050s +7.2ºC 2020s +4.5ºC East Midlands 90% probability level Medium emissions Change in temperature of the hottest day

SummerWinter Change in average summer and winter rainfall Medium emissions by 2050s

14 Increased winter flooding Risks to urban drainage Severe transport link disruption Risks to Infrastructure Increased winter flooding Risks to urban drainage Severe transport link disruption Risks to Infrastructure 2080s +16% 2050s +13% 2020s +6% North West central estimate Medium Emissions But the wettest day of the year could see up to 31% more rainfall in the North Intense winter rainfall

© UKCIP 2011 Seasonal increase in degrees C from present to 2080s – Medium emission Less directly relevant than warmer air temperatures BUT Could improve conditions for non-native nuisance species such as sea squirts spoiling built structures Change in average sea surface temperature

Sea level rise 16 Increased coastal erosion Increased coastal flooding Risk to infrastructure Increased coastal erosion Increased coastal flooding Risk to infrastructure Changes are relative to But, also modelled more extreme scenarios that give rises of up to 6ft (1.9 metres) by the end of the century (High++ scenario) (London) 2080 Weston-super-Mare: 37cm Newlyn: 40cm Poole: 37cm 2040 Weston-super-Mare: 18cm Newlyn: 20cm Poole: 18cm Sea level rise

Hotter, drier summers Increase in heatwaves / hot days Warmer, wetter winters More heavy rain events Other marine / coastal variables Sea level rise 10s of cm in coming decades Largest sea temperature increase in autumn in SE Storms more uncertain but could be fewer more severe storms Summary of expected climate changes in the UK

Increased/decreased productivity Changing markets/demand for service Effects on reputation Disruption/loss of business continuity Changing raw material, repair, maintenance, insurance costs Health and safety concerns Increased / decreased sales 31% of UK companies significantly affected by weather in the past year (Ipsos MORI, 2010) What are the potential impacts for business in general...

How is weather already affecting this industry Recent windstorms / surge events in the UK and Europe have... Damaged / destroyed equipment (cables, access bridges, pontoons) Led to increased insurance claims at some sites (and premiums...) Piled yachts up against each other Cut off access to boats Breached sea defences leading to damage through inundation Damaged reputation through reduced customer confidence

Future climate change impacts on the industry Increased participation in marine leisure activities Added pressure to infrastructure from more use Increased risk of collisions / congestion Non-natives fouling structures / boats Droughts = water restrictions / more hosepipe bans Changes in sediment supply Warmer, drier summers Dredging / fill required for sites and navigation

Impacts Vulnerability of site and access due to flooding Risk of overtopping quays / defences with surges Closures from high tides / heavy rain Damage / disruption = higher insurance premiums Wave height increase affecting safety Damage to boats stored out of season with winter storms Events Storms / Heavy rain Sea Level Rise Future climate change impacts on the industry

Hotter, drier summers Milder, wetter winters Greater proportion of rain in heavy downpours Rising sea level Trends Physical impacts (flooding)Consequences for society (travel disruption) Events Heat waves Droughts Heavy rain Cold snaps Storms Negative consequences for businesses Disruption Insurance Costs H&S Reputation Positive opportunities Reputation Market leader New products and services Adaptation can alter the chain of events

Working with UKCIP, Felixstowe Port pre-empted legal obligations and undertook a climate risk assessment in 2008, which identified capacity building actions. This resulted in: The incorporation of climate risk into flood management and business continuity plans Further examination of the current high wind thresholds and wind agreement (key threat) Maintaining a watching brief on the latest information on climate change of relevance to the port Brighton Marina commissioned HR Wallingford to model impacts of waves and water level on their sea defences. This identified future options to reduce the threats to their breakwaters over the next 120 years. Examples of adaptation in ports and marinas

Climate change and its implications for business Adapting to a changing climate workshop Next steps

Based on UKCIP adaptation wizard The adaptation process

Working session 1 (20 mins) Why are you concerned about adapting to climate change? (motivation; drivers; incentives) What do you want to achieve by working through this process? What is the scope and scale of your assessment? What are your timescales of interest? Who needs to be involved? What difficulties might you face and how might these be overcome? Discuss collectively and capture outputs Outcomes: An idea of what you want to achieve and what resources will be required. Step 1: Scope, objectives, outcomes

Weather typeImpactBusiness consequencesTrigger point?ResponseAdequate?Source Consider one weather type per row such as heavy rain, heatwave, storm cold snap High winds High tide e.g. flooding of local area or premises, damage to property, restricted access to site, disruption to supply chain, etc. This is the most important column as it identifies the consequences you are trying to avoid/promote e.g. repair/ replace/ maintenance/ insurance costs, lost/ gained customers, lost/ gained sales, H&S issues, affect on reputation or declining/ increasing productivity ie. the point above which an impact occurs e.g. a windspeed, rainfall intensity or temperature or the duration of a disruption e.g. staff worked extra hours, people worked from home, alternative premises used. Afterwards: advice sought, suppliers changed, BCM initiated or improved, procedures reviewed, vulnerable equipment moved, building made more resilient, investment in flood resistent technologies e.g. company records, a colleague Source: SpeedBACLIAT How have your sites been affected by past weather events? Outcomes: A record of past weather events and their consequences and details of critical thresholds. Step 2: Assessing current vulnerability

Weather TypeImpactBusiness consequencesTrigger point?ResponseAdequate?Source Winter rainstorms Heatwave Storms / high winds/ High tide Cold snaps? Damage boats in storage Increased participation Overtopping Repair costs / insurance claims Increased revenue Site flooding / boats damaged Rainfall intensity/ high winds Length of hot spell Storm / high tide combined Move where boats stored Took on more temporary staff Reviewed insurance cover In short term Yes In short term A colleague Records Source: SpeedBACLIAT How have your sites been affected by recent weather events? Outcomes: A record of past weather events and their consequences and details of critical thresholds. Step 2: Assessing current vulnerability

Working session 2 (30 mins) Complete flip charts in groups Share a few examples of consequences of specific events Step 2: Assessing current vulnerability

Use BACLIAT (Business Areas CLimate Impacts Assessment Tool) to brainstorm potential impacts on: Premises: Impacts on building design, construction and maintenance and facilities management People: Implications for workforce, customers and changing lifestyles Process: Impacts on production process and service delivery Logistics: Vulnerability of supply chain, utilities and transport arrangements Markets: Changing demand for goods and services Finance: Implications for investment, insurance and reputation Step 3: Assess vulnerability to future climate change

Use BACLIAT (Business Areas CLimate Impacts Assessment Tool) to brainstorm potential impacts on: Premises: Will buildings need to be adapted to avoid future flood risks? People: Will seasonal employment and customer use of facilities change? Process: How will service delivery need to change in the future? Logistics: Are there considerations for how boats are moored in [and stored out of] season? Markets: Could we see an increase in demand with better summers? Finance: Will insurance premiums go up in the future due to climate risks? Outcomes: A list of priority climate change impacts. Step 3: Assess vulnerability to future climate change

Working session 3 (40 mins) Break into groups Brainstorm potential impacts for the business areas most relevant to your organisation (past things more frequent / new issues) Consider THREATS and OPPORTUNITIES No answers are wrong: think creatively and record all answers. Think practically and think about longevity of sites Consider direct and indirect impacts (e.g. not directly at site – transport links / supply) Step 3: Assess vulnerability to future climate change

Climate change and its implications for business Adapting to a changing climate workshop Next steps

15 mins Conduct an exercise to identify key impacts Is there consensus? Key considerations to prioritise: How soon How likely Consequences / cost How long will it take to start adapting WHY is this risk significant? From potential future impacts to risks

30 mins What actions could you take to enhance the resilience of your site? Temporary or permanent? Think about past experiences to draw on and be practical, think about how your business works Explore technical, operational, strategic options Would changes benefit business anyway? Outcomes: An adaptation plan for your top 3 issues Identifying adaptation actions

How can the preferred adaptations best be implemented; What resources (staff, facilities, capital) will be required to implement the adaptations and monitor their effectiveness; Who will own management of these risks What institutional and community support will be required; What barriers exist to adaptation and how might these be overcome; How will the performance of the strategy, and actions within it, be monitored and reviewed. Implementing adaptations: things to consider

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