1 st MEDCOF & 10 st SEECOF Sources for Climate outlook for winter season 2013/14 Dragan Mihić RHMS of Serbia / SEEVCCC.

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Presentation transcript:

1 st MEDCOF & 10 st SEECOF Sources for Climate outlook for winter season 2013/14 Dragan Mihić RHMS of Serbia / SEEVCCC

Based on: WMOLC-MME – WMO Lead Centre for Long-Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble RCM-SEEVCCC – Regional Climate Model of the South East European Virtual Climate Change Center EUROSIP ECMWF – The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Climate outlook for winter season IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society

Climate outlook for winter season 2013/14 for Serbia - temperature NSNo Signal BNBelow Normal ANAbove Normal T ECMWF NS EUROSIPAN RCM- SEEVCCC AN WMOLC AN east and central Serbia

Climate outlook for winter season 2013/14 for Serbia - precipitation NSNo Signal BNBelow Normal NNormal RR ECMWF NS for north BN EUROSIPNS RCM- SEEVCCC N to BN in southwest WMOLC NS

Normally cold and humid winter for the most of the country Somewhat warmer in northern and western regions Climate outlook for winter season 2013/14 for Serbia - conclusion Precipitation deficit in western and south-western parts

No signal for temperature and almost for precipitation Exceptions: - island of Crete and east cost of Mediterranean, above normal temp. - some parts of central Balkans, below normal precipitation; western part of central Turkey, islands of Crete and Cyprus, above normal precip. Climate outlook for winter season 2013/14 for SEECOF region - ECMWF

Climate outlook for winter season 2013/14 for SEECOF region - EUROSIP Aabove normal over Balkan Peninsula, no signal for temperature over other parts of SEECOF region No clear signal for precipitation

Above normal temperature: northern half of Balkan Peninsula, central and easternmost parts of Turkey and Caucasus region Precipitation: - Above: Carpathian Mountains, Caucasus region, Adriatic and Black Sea coasts - Below: western and southern parts of both Balkan Peninsula and Turkey - Normal: all other parts Climate outlook for winter season 2013/14 for SEECOF region - SEEVCCC

Temperature: above normal in Israel, on Carpathian mountains, western, south-western and south Balkan Peninsula Precipitation: no signal for the most of region, below normal on Cyprus, above normal in central part of south Caucasus region Climate outlook for winter season 2013/14 for SEECOF region – WMOLC-MME

Climate outlook for winter season 2013/14 for SEECOF region – IRI Temperature: above normal most part of Balkans, Middle east and Caucasus region Precipitation, no clear signal

Climate outlook for winter season 2013/14 – comparing with the last winter

Climate outlook for winter season 2013/14 - conclusion use EUROSIP/ WMOLC-MME for the moment consensus on reference period, standardize products to be used maybe sub-regions and sub-season

THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION ! WWW. HIDMET.GOV.RS WWW. SEEVCCC.RS