Uncertain activity duration (P14) Consider the IS development project network given below: C 3 2 E A D G 1 5 6 F B 4 The systems analyst has made estimates of the optimistic, most probable, and pessimistic times (in days) for these activities as follows:

Uncertain duration estimates (P14) Activity Optimistic Most Probable Pessimistic A 5 6 7 B 5 12 13 C 6 8 10 D 4 10 10 E 5 6 13 F 7 7 10 G 4 7 10 a) Find the critical path. b) How much slack time, if any, is there for activity C? c) Determine the expected project completion time and the variance. d) Find the probability that the project will be completed in 30 days or less.

Analyst planning a training (P15) Activity Description Immediate Optimistic Most Pessimistic Predecessors Prob. A Plan topic - 1.5 2 2.5 B Arrange speakers A 2 2.5 6 C List locations - 1 2 3 D Select location C 1.5 2 2.5 E Speaker travel plan B,D 0.5 1 1.5 F Finalize speakers E 1 2 3 G Prepare brochure B,D 3 3.5 7 H Take reservations G 3 4 5 I Last-minute details F,H 1.5 2 2.5 a. Show the PERT/CPM network for this project. b. What are the critical path activities and expected project completion time? c. Prepare the activity schedule for this project. d. If the analyst wants a 0.99 probability of completing the project on time, how far ahead of the scheduled meeting date should she begin working on the project?

Critical and non-critical paths (p16) Q1- Why the probability of completing a project on time is based on the analysis of the critical path? Q2- In what case, if any, would it be desirable to make the probability computation for a non-critical path?