Lindsey Long and Jae Schemm NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC

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Presentation transcript:

Assessment of the NCEP CFS Hindcast Runs on Predicting the North American Monsoon Lindsey Long and Jae Schemm NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC Lindsey.N.Williams@noaa.gov Runs courtesy of Suranjana Saha NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC

Introduction Focus on Precipitation and Atmospheric Circulation Look at both seasonal and interannual variability Five varying runs allow us to look at the affect of: Lead Time Updates to the CFS model Horizontal Resolution

Description of Runs 5 different hindcast runs from 1981-2006 Two 15-member ensemble mean hindcasts from current operational CFS 1-month lead (May) 3-month lead (March) Three single runs with differing horizontal resolutions using an updated CFS T62 T126 T382

Summary of Runs Run CFS Version Resolution Initial Condition # of Runs 1 GFS 2007 / MOM3 T382 May 15th Single 2 T126 3 T62 4 Operational May 15-Member Ensemble Mean 5 March 15-Member Ensemble Mean

Complex Terrain Demonstrates the need for finer horizontal resolution Gulf of California Sierra Madre Occidental Mexico Baja Do a quick overview of the topography of the NAM area.

NAME Sub Regions TIER 1.5 CORE AZNM Arizona/New Mexico Region (AZNM) ; (Higgins et al. 1998) CORE Region (Gutzler 2004) Tier 1.5 Region (NAMAP2) Define regions

CFS JJAS Precipitation [cm], 1981-2006 URD (1x1) T382 T126 T62 Oper T62 May Ensm Oper T62 March Ensm Make sure to mention obs=Unified Rain gauge Dataset

CFS JJAS Precipitation Model Minus Obs [cm], 1981-2006 URD (1x1) T382 T126 T62 Oper T62 May Ensm Oper T62 March Ensm Model Bias – start with T62 operational. Discuss how operational is doing. Then T62 new = still has dry bias but precipitation starting to organize along mountain region. Then T126 and T382 have wet bias.

Seasonal Cycle of Precipitation a) AZNM CORE Region shows good example of increased accuracy with resolution and model upgrade TIER 1.5 shows less improvement with new model runs b) CORE c) TIER 1.5 URD T382 T126 T62 T62 May T62 March

Seasonal Cycle of Precipitation a) AZNM CORE Region shows good example of increased accuracy with resolution and model upgrade TIER 1.5 shows less improvement with new model runs In all regions, T382 run does well capturing monsoon onset (June-July) b) CORE c) TIER 1.5 URD T382 T126 T62 T62 May T62 March

CFS Diurnal Cycle of Precipitation JJAS (mm/day) AZNM CORE South East Great Plains Mountain CFS Diurnal Cycle of Precipitation JJAS (mm/day) l T62 T126 T382 NARR Note NARR used since need 3-hrly

Interannual Variability a) AZNM b) CORE Anomalous Precipitation for JJAS c) TIER 1.5 Because these are so noisy lets look at the correlations instead. Also, mention that show hint of decadal trend. URD T382 T126 T62 T62 May T62 March

Interannual Variability a) AZNM b) CORE Anomalous Precipitation for JJAS Decadal Trend present in observations and CFS c) TIER 1.5 Because these are so noisy lets look at the correlations instead. Also, mention that show hint of decadal trend. URD T382 T126 T62 T62 May T62 March

Precipitation Correlations to URD a) AZNM Monthly d) AZNM Seasonal b) CORE Monthly e) CORE Seasonal c) TIER 1.5 Monthly f) TIER 1.5 Seasonal T382 doing best in the AZNM region, but in larger regions T126 doing better. Top correlation = 0.51 in Aug Tier 1.5 by T126 T382 T126 T62 T62 May T62 March

Atmospheric Circulation Prominent upper-air features in the NAME region: Anticyclonic flow over the region Low-level jet over the Gulf of Mexico Low-level jet over the Gulf of California

Atmospheric Circulation (JJA) 300 mb Streamlines, 850 mb Wind Vectors NARR T382 T126 T62 Oper T62 May Ensm Oper T62 March Ensm Show both JJA and JAS because of large change between seasonal averages – anticyclone flow in JJA T382 run disappears in JAS and appears in operational ensms. Still in wrong position though.

Atmospheric Circulation (JAS) 300 mb Streamlines, 850 mb Wind Vectors NARR T382 T126 T62 Oper T62 May Ensm Oper T62 March Ensm

Gulf of California LLJ, 850 mb Winds Strong Southerly Flow Weak Westerly Flow NARR T382 Note that NARR southerly flow may be too strong, but still flow is directionally correct.

Conclusions As expected with the complex terrain of the NAMS, increased resolution does improve the precipitation forecast. Correlations show Interannual Variability is improving with resolution Improvement also seen at the Seasonal and Diurnal time scales. Comparisons of the T62 runs highlight the improvement provided by the updated atmospheric GCM model. Change in lead time for Ensemble Mean hindcasts show only a slight improvement in May versus March The general circulation is still a problem area. Missing anticyclonic flow over the monsoon area Lacking the southerly flow associated with the LLJ; therefore, the warm moisture brought into the region by this jet is missing.

Thank you! Questions?