Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Acknowledgment: Trinh Tuan Long for TC movie and tracks Interannual variability of heavy rainfall over Central Vietnam Kim Nguyen, Jack Katzfey and John.

Published byRoderick Maurice Lee Modified over 8 years ago

Similar presentations

Presentation on theme: "Acknowledgment: Trinh Tuan Long for TC movie and tracks Interannual variability of heavy rainfall over Central Vietnam Kim Nguyen, Jack Katzfey and John."— Presentation transcript:

1 Acknowledgment: Trinh Tuan Long for TC movie and tracks Interannual variability of heavy rainfall over Central Vietnam Kim Nguyen, Jack Katzfey and John McGregor 9-14 th December 2012 Melbourne

2 OUTLINES Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model (CCAM) simulation forced by ERA-Interim at 20 km over Vietnam The periods will be studied: April-May, June-July-August (JJA) and September- October-November (SON) Large scale circulation Heavy Rainfall (95 th ) are compared against APHRODITE (0.25 degree), CMAP and GPCP Simulations of tropical cyclones and related rainfall

3 Central Vietnam South China Sea Bay of Bengal Tibetan Plateau Thailand Cambodia Laos North South Vietnam CCAM SURFACE ELEVATION Elevation (meter) 20km resolution region

4 1.Southwesterly from Bay of Bengal 2.Cross-equatorial flow from the Southern Hemisphere June to August September to November Northeasterly originated from Mongolia and northern China merges with easterly flow from the Pacific MEAN CIRCULATION MSLP AND 1000 hPa WIND

5 HEAVY RAINFALL (95 th PERCENTILE) mm/day CMAPGPCP APHRODITECCAM

6 APHRODITE CCAM INTER_ANNUAL VARIABILITY OF RAINFALL EXTREME (mm/day) AVERAGED OVER 106-110 o E, 12-19 o N

7 MONTHLY DISTRIBUTION OF HEAVY RAIN DAYS OVER CENTRAL VIETNAM APHRODITE heavy rain days: APR-MAY 5%, JJA 41%, SON 53% heavy rain amount: APR-MAY 4%,JJA 37%, SON 56.4% CCAM Heavy rain days: APR-MAY 8%, JJA 32%, SON 57% Heavy rain amount: APR-MAY 8%, JJA 30%, SON 58%

8 ANOMALOUS RAINFALL AND WIND AT 850hPa September to November 1.Day -3, disturbance located west of Philippine 2.Day -2, disturbance propagates westward closer to the VN east coast but heavy rainfall has yet to arrive in Central Vietnam

9 ANOMALOUS RAINFALL AND WIND AT 850hPa September to November Deficiency of rainfall over Eastern China but surplus of rainfall over Central Vietnam Cyclonic circulation located over east coast of VN The above pattern is similar for April-May and June -July-August season

10 Anomalous (925 hPa) air TEMPERATURE CCAM APRIL-MAY Anomalous (925 hPa) air MOISTURE warm and moist air cold and dry air warm and dry air

11 JUNE-JULY-AUGUST CCAM Anomalous 925 hPa air TEMPERATURE Anomalous 925 hPa air MOISTURE trough line (ITCZ) warm and moist air cold and dry air

12 CCAM Anomalous 925 hPa air TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER-OCTOBER-NOVEMBER Anomalous 925 hPa air MOISTUE trough line (ITCZ) Similar to JJA season, except ITCZ shifted south warm and moist air cold and dry air

13 Presentation title | Dr Kim Chi Nguyen 13 | TROPICAL CYCLONE http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/w_pacific The data on this site are provided from the National Weather Service via the NOAAPORT satellite data service. All the images are generated using the Weather Processor (WXP) analysis package which is available from Unisys. National Weather ServiceNOAAPORTWeather Processor (WXP)

14 Presentation title | Presenter name 14 |

15 OBS CCAM Linda Keith

16 AREA-AVERAGED RAINFALL OVER CENTRAL VIETNAM APHRODITE AND CCAM 1980 (neutral)

17 AREA-AVERAGED RAINFALL OVER CENTRAL VIETNAM APHRODITE AND CCAM 1982 (strong El Nino) Aphrodite (60 mm/d) CCAM (40 mm/d) 5-day-mean rainfall from CMAP and GPCP around 35-40 mm/day

18 AREA-AVERAGED RAINFALL OVER CENTRAL VIETNAM APHRODITE AND CCAM 1988 (strong La Nina) No TC found

19 Presentation title | Presenter name 19 | AREA-AVERAGED RAINFALL OVER CENTRAL VIETNAM APHRODITE AND CCAM 1992 (neutral) 15-29 Oct 21Jun-1Jul

20 Presentation title | Presenter name 20 | AREA-AVERAGED RAINFALL OVER CENTRAL VIETNAM APHRODITE AND CCAM 1997 (strong El Nino) APHRODITE 25 Sep 48 mm/d CCAM 26 Sep 65 mm/d

21 Presentation title | Presenter name 21 | AREA-AVERAGED RAINFALL OVER CENTRAL VIETNAM APHRODITE AND CCAM 2000 (weak La Nina)

22 Presentation title | Presenter name 22 | AREA- AVERAGED RAINFALL OVER CENTRAL VIETNAM 2001 (neutral) APHRODITE CCAM

23 Presentation title | Presenter name 23 | AREA-AVERAGED RAINFALL OVER CENTRAL VIETNAM APHRODITE AND CCAM (1997 strong El Nino) APHRODITE 25 Sep 48 mm/d CCAM 26 Sep 65 mm/d

24 CONCLUSIONS 1.CCAM capture the APHRODITE mean extreme rainfall pattern, but it under estimates the APHRODITE extreme amount over South and North Vietnam. However CCAM extreme rainfall amount seems to agree with those of CMAP and GPCP. 2.Heavy rainfall season is from June to November with peak in October. The study shows that contribution into extreme rainfall days/amount as followed; April-May 8%, June to August 30% and September to November close to 60%. 3.The study shows that heavy rainfall in April-May seems to be due to cold surge from Mongolia and northern China, whereas heavy rainfall in June to August and September to November appears due to the tropical cyclone disturbances embedded in the ITCZ. 4.CCAM captures well the APHRODITE daily rainfall distribution and TC related rainfall peaks

25 Presentation title | Presenter name 25 | THANKS YOU

26 Presentation title | Presenter name 26 |

27 Presentation title | Presenter name 27 |

28 APR-MAY (925 hPa) air temperature and wind NCEP

29 JJA (925 hPa) air temperature and wind APHRODITE

30 SON (925 hPa) air temperature and wind APHRODITE

31 ANOMALOUS RAINFALL AND WIND AT 850 hPa April to May 1.Similar to above but for Day -2 and Day -3 2.Day -3, disturbance is located east of the Philippine and propagates westward 3.Day -2 it is located just west of the Philippine 4.Disturbances in SCS but heavy rainfall has yet to arrive in Central Vietnam

32 ANOMALOUS RAINFALL AND WIND AT 850 hPa April to May Deficiency of rainfall over Eastern China but surplus of rainfall over Central Vietnam Cyclonic circulation located middle VN Even though this season only contributes 5 to 8% to the total but its rainfall anomaly is large and spreads over much wider region

33 JUNE to AUGUST Anomalous 925 hPa air MOISTURE and wind CCAM

34 APR-MAY Anomalous (925 hPa) air TEMPERATURE and wind CCAM 1.Day -5 warmer than normal over China and East China Sea 2.Day -2 sharp temp gradient along the east coast of China due to cold air advected from northern China and Mongolia. In SCS, disturbance (anti- cyclonic circulation) is located just west of the Philippine and propagates west ward 3.Day -1 the disturbance is closer to the VN east coast and cold air has entered into the region but heavy rainfall has yet to arrive in Central Vietnam 4.Collaborative between disturbance and the cold air surge causing heavy rainfall in Central Vietnam

35 Presentation title | Presenter name 35 | APR-MAY Anomalous (925 hPa) air MOISTURE and wind CCAM 1.Day -5 warmer and moist air than normal over China and East China Sea 2.Day -2 dry and cold air appears over east China due to cold air surge 3.Day -1 even though cold air had arrived over central VN but drier air only reaches north VN 4.ONSET: interaction between cold air surge and warmer air from SCS due to disturbance causing heavy rainfall in Central Vietnam

36 CCAM SON Anomalous 925 hPa air TEMPERATURE and wind

37 SON Anomalous 925 hPa air MOISTURE and wind CCAM

38 Anomalous 925 hPa air TEMPERATURE SON Anomalous 925 hPa air MOISTUE

39 JUNE-JULY-AUGUST CCAM Anomalous 925 hPa air TEMPERATURE Anomalous 925 hPa air MOISTURE

40 JUNE-JULY-AUGUST CCAM Anomalous 925 hPa air TEMPERATURE Anomalous 925 hPa air MOISTURE

41 CCAM Anomalous 925 hPa air TEMPERATURE SON Anomalous 925 hPa air MOISTUE

42 ANOMALOUS RAINFALL AND WIND AT 850 hPa June to August 1.Similar to above but for Day -2 and Day -3 2.Disturbances has established in SCS but heavy rainfall has yet to arrive in Central Vietnam

43 ANOMALOUS RAINFALL AND WIND AT 850 hPa June to August Deficiency of rainfall over Eastern China but surplus of rainfall over Central Vietnam Cyclonic circulation shifted slightly north

Download ppt "Acknowledgment: Trinh Tuan Long for TC movie and tracks Interannual variability of heavy rainfall over Central Vietnam Kim Nguyen, Jack Katzfey and John."

Similar presentations

Madden/Julian Oscillation: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Forecasts Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP February 20, 2006.

Madden/Julian Oscillation: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Forecasts Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP February 20, 2006.
El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
Seasonal outlook of the East Asian Summer in 2015 Motoaki Takekawa Tokyo Climate Center Japan Meteorological Agency 11-13 May. 201511th FOCRAII 1.

Seasonal outlook of the East Asian Summer in 2015 Motoaki Takekawa Tokyo Climate Center Japan Meteorological Agency May th FOCRAII 1.
El Niño is characterized by unusually warm temperatures that move eastward toward Peru’s coast La Niña is characterized by unusually cool temperatures.

El Niño is characterized by unusually warm temperatures that move eastward toward Peru’s coast La Niña is characterized by unusually cool temperatures.
Monitoring Extreme Rain Events using Giovanni Amita Mehta and Ana Prados NASA-UMBC Joint Center for Earth Systems Technology (JCET)

Monitoring Extreme Rain Events using Giovanni Amita Mehta and Ana Prados NASA-UMBC Joint Center for Earth Systems Technology (JCET)
What is El Nino and will it end our drought?. What has caused the drought? We have been experiencing drought conditions since September, 2007. We've also.

What is El Nino and will it end our drought?. What has caused the drought? We have been experiencing drought conditions since September, We've also.
What is Climate? The long term average of weather, usually 30 years+

What is Climate? The long term average of weather, usually 30 years+
The La Niña Influence on Central Alabama Rainfall Patterns.

The La Niña Influence on Central Alabama Rainfall Patterns.
1 Climate Ensemble Simulations and Projections for Vietnam using PRECIS Model Presented by Hiep Van Nguyen Main contributors: Mai Van Khiem, Tran Thuc,

1 Climate Ensemble Simulations and Projections for Vietnam using PRECIS Model Presented by Hiep Van Nguyen Main contributors: Mai Van Khiem, Tran Thuc,
The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 1 October 2012 For more information,

The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 1 October 2012 For more information,
The African Monsoon Recent Evolution and Current Status Include Week-1 and Week-2 Outlooks Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 10 January.

The African Monsoon Recent Evolution and Current Status Include Week-1 and Week-2 Outlooks Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 10 January.
C20C Workshop, ICTP Trieste 2004 The impact of stratospheric ozone depletion and CO 2 on tropical cyclone behaviour in the Australian region Syktus J.

C20C Workshop, ICTP Trieste 2004 The impact of stratospheric ozone depletion and CO 2 on tropical cyclone behaviour in the Australian region Syktus J.
The Indian Monsoon A monsoon seasonal change is characterized by a variety of physical mechanisms which produce strong seasonal winds, a wet summer.

The Indian Monsoon A monsoon seasonal change is characterized by a variety of physical mechanisms which produce strong seasonal winds, a wet summer.
Southern Oscillation- Atmospheric component of ocean's El Niño. Oscillation in the distribution of high and low pressure systems across the equatorial.

Southern Oscillation- Atmospheric component of ocean's El Niño. Oscillation in the distribution of high and low pressure systems across the equatorial.
1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP August 9, 2010.

1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP August 9, 2010.
Heavy rainfall in Central Vietnam based on observation: Case studies Thang Vu, Kim Nguyen and Thang Nguyen 9-15 th December 2012 Melbourne.

Heavy rainfall in Central Vietnam based on observation: Case studies Thang Vu, Kim Nguyen and Thang Nguyen 9-15 th December 2012 Melbourne.
2015. equator Normally, trade winds converge at the equator and push warm water westward. In the eastern Pacific, cold water rises to the surface - upwelling.

2015. equator Normally, trade winds converge at the equator and push warm water westward. In the eastern Pacific, cold water rises to the surface - upwelling.
Western Australia Annual Preparedness Briefing Mike Bergin, Regional Director 7 September 2015.

Western Australia Annual Preparedness Briefing Mike Bergin, Regional Director 7 September 2015.
Much of the work that follows is straight from (or slightly modified) notes kindly made available by Jenny Pollock NCG and or spk (?)…. Nice to have a.

Much of the work that follows is straight from (or slightly modified) notes kindly made available by Jenny Pollock NCG and or spk (?)…. Nice to have a.
1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 14 July 2008.

1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 14 July 2008.

Similar presentations

Ads by Google