HBF Planning Conference Reaping the rewards of Housing Market Assessments Yolande Barnes Director, Savills Research 14 September 2006.

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Presentation transcript:

HBF Planning Conference Reaping the rewards of Housing Market Assessments Yolande Barnes Director, Savills Research 14 September 2006

some background on demand and supply are HMAs good news or (yet) another excuse for consultants to make money? what should an HMA include? outline

some background on demand and supply

UK build rates are the lowest in Western Europe … Source: RICS, Savills Research

… and dont always hit planned targets Source:Savills, regional planning documents & DCLG

market pricing shows quality disparity Source: Land Registry/Savills Research

we just aint building them any more …

… or creating the new ubertowns Source: Savills Research

when competing for scarce space …

… the size of your club matters

(although we think were more sophisticated now)

demand and supply interact Source: HM Land Registry, CACI

a good HMA will add value

market expertise is needed at an early stage Source: Savills Research

the market for some schemes may be wider than you thought … Source: Savills using Census 2001

… some developments will create their own market …

… competition from other new stock will have an impact … Source: Savills Research

changing demographics will affect demand and demand will change market demographics … Source: ONS

… HMAs can inform the development mix to exploit market niches and fulfil latent demand Source: Savills Size range (sq.ft.)Units% 1 bed flats % 2 bed flats % Larger flats/ smaller houses % Smaller houses % Larger houses ,01032% Total 3,140100%

optimising development through understanding the market provides an edge Source: Savills

so what should an HMA include?

social housing need excludes two-thirds of occupiers it is not an old-fashioned housing assessment

1.Supply current future 2.Demand current future it goes beyond standard development feasibility studies

1.inclusive all occupiers 2.dynamic over space over time between occupier groups 3.interactive critical mass development impact phasing impact existing and created demand housing market assessments need to be: