Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) José Estors Carballo, FAO Audun Lem, FAO

Agricultural Market Information System AMIS -FAO -IFAD -IMF -OECD -UNCTAD -WFP -Key Stake Holders -World Bank -WTO G20 leaders at their summit meeting in November 2010 requested FAO, IFAD, IMF, OECD, UNCTAD, WFP, the World Bank and the WTO (to) work with key stakeholders “to develop options for G20 consideration on how to better mitigate and manage the risks associated with the price volatility of food and other agriculture commodities, without distorting market behaviour, ultimately to protect the most vulnerable.” A tool to improve data reliability, timeliness, frequency and to enhance policy coordination in time of crisis and price volatility

when do they become problematic? Price Volatility Variations in economic variables over time Types of price variations When prices move along smooth and well-established trend reflecting market fundamentals when they exhibit a well known and seasonal pattern when do they become problematic? When they are large and cannot be anticipated In a purely descriptive sense volatility refers to variations in economic variables over time, Here we are explicitly concerned with variations in agricultural prices over time. Not all price variations are problematic, such as when prices move along a smooth and well-established trend reflecting market fundamentals or when they exhibit a typical and well known seasonal pattern. But variations in prices become problematic when they are large and cannot be anticipated and, as a result, create a level of uncertainty which increases risks for producers, traders, consumers and governments and may lead to sub-optimal decisions. Variations in prices that do not reflect market fundamentals are also problematic as they can lead to incorrect decisions.

AMIS Agricultural Market Information System 2007 – 2008 Price crisis exposed weaknesses in Provision of market information at global level Coordination of policy responses to food price volatility Need to ensure preparedness and rapid responses The experience of the 2007-08 food price crisis and the current excess price volatility in many international food markets have exposed weaknesses in relation not only to the provision of market information at the global level but also to the coordination of policy responses to food price volatility. There is need to ensure better preparedness and more rapid and consistent policy responses in times of crisis. Building on and complementing existing systems, improvements in global market information and policy guidance could be achieved through a collaborative food information and policy initiative, the Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS). Such initiative would improve data reliability, timeliness and frequency, as well as enhance policy coordination in times of crisis. AMIS Improve data reliability Improve timeliness Improve frequency Enhance policy coordination

AMIS Major food producing, exporting and importing countries AMIS could be built on the model of JODI (the Joint Oil Data Initiative), launched in 2000 to improve information about oil markets. However, it would have the additional function of issuing global food price surge alerts and promoting policy coherence. AMIS would involve the major food producing, exporting and importing countries. It would also involve a joint Secretariat comprising of international organizations with capacity to collect, analyse and disseminate information on a regular basis regarding the food situation and outlook, as well as food policies. Joint Secretariat comprising of International Organizations

AMIS Structure AMIS Secretariat Global Food Market Information Group Rapid Response Forum Provide policy advice and promote policy coordination at high food security risk Meet, analyze and plan actions in case of crisis alert Secretariat Global Food Market Information Group Exchange of Information & collaboration between market experts AMIS could be built on the model of JODI (the Joint Oil Data Initiative), launched in 2000 to improve information about oil markets. However, it would have the additional function of issuing global food price surge alerts and promoting policy coherence. AMIS would involve the major food producing, exporting and importing countries. It would also involve a joint Secretariat comprising of international organizations with capacity to collect, analyse and disseminate information on a regular basis regarding the food situation and outlook, as well as food policies. -The structure of AMIS would include two groups to effectively perform two important functions: a Global Food Market Information Group would be responsible for food market information collection and analysis, while the promotion of international policy coordination would be the objective of a Rapid Response Forum. -Increased and regular exchange of information and collaboration between market experts from participating countries and organizations in the AMIS Global Food Market Information Group could result in more complete and reliable data on consumption, production, trade and stocks, increasing market transparency and curbing food price volatility that is not based on underlying market conditions. -Through the comprehensive coverage of global major food markets and the close monitoring of prices in combination with food security assessments across vulnerable countries AMIS will also provide a mechanism for global early warning. This will increase the scope for more “automated systems” of evaluating food security implications of changing market situations whereby an indicator of different degrees of severity can be calculated routinely and where appropriate trigger an alert. -The AMIS Rapid Response Forum would provide policy advice and promote policy coordination when the market situation and outlook indicates a high food security risk. Through the participation of policy experts from the major producing and importing countries AMIS Rapid Policy Response Forum will be able to mobilise political support to achieve agreement on appropriate policy response and actions in times of crisis.

Rapid response Forum actions in case of alert: Receive & asses information from AMIS Secretariat on current market information Provide Policy Guidance - Promote policy coordination Work closely with the Committee on World Food Security (CFS) The Rapid Response Forum will meet in response to a food crisis alert. Its actions would be as follows: - Receive and assess information and analyses from the AMIS Secretariat on the current global market situation and outlook and issue regular statements on the ensuing implications for food security; receive information and assessments for particularly vulnerable countries. - Provide appropriate policy guidance and promote policy coordination when the market situation and outlook indicates a high food security risk. Such guidance will encourage the implementation of efficient and effective policies, the avoidance of potentially damaging policy choices, and will ensure that humanitarian responses are rapid and appropriate. - Work closely with the Committee on World Food Security (CFS) to promote greater policy convergence and strengthen policy linkages at global level.

AMIS - FAO Coordinated by the Group on Earth Observation Secretariat housed at FAO FAO – WMO agreement for AMIS and the geomonitoring initiative Seeking date, Data accuracy and transparency FAO – No enforcement power against countries that do not provide information Lack of quality, reliable, accurate, timely and comparable information on market fundamentals may reduce efficiency and accentuate price volatility, the G20 want to strengthen “the collaboration and dialogue among main producing, exporting and importing countries, commercial enterprises and international organizations.” According to the G-20 action plan, the AMIS secretariat is to be housed at the FAO and a meeting of the AMIS global food market information team is to be held in September to determine how to organize the new effort. At that meeting, participants also are expected to discuss setting up a “rapid response forum” to increase “policy coherence and coordination” in times of crisis. The London-based International Grains Council, a cooperative group that promotes the exchange of information on wheat, coarse grains, oilseeds and rice, is supposed to be consulted. Data accuracy, transparency: FAO has no enforcement power against countries that do not provide information, but the G-20 agriculture ministers also tried to put an accuracy check into the new information effort by setting up a Global Agricultural Geomonitoring Initiative that would use remote sensing tools for crop production projections and weather forecasting. The project in in the hands of the Group on Earth Observation, housed at the World Meteorological Organization in Geneva, which is also an U.N. specialized agency. The ministers directed the FAO and the WMO to reach an agreement for AMIS and the geomonitoring initiative to be coordinated by the Group on Earth Observation. The international workshop on “strengthening agricultural monitoring at national and global scales to improve market transparency” would be organized in September. (Was it organized?) The processes would be enhanced and improved by AMIS and satellite surveillance, The FAO long have been involved in providing information on supply and demand in as many countries as will participate, however. U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization officials have expressed enthusiasm for a new global agricultural information system to improve global food security established by the G-20 agriculture ministers, but it’s unclear how well the new system or what affect it will have. “We will start right away at our level to seek data,” outgoing FAO Director General Jacques Diouf said at the FAO meeting June 23 in Paris, where the plan was approved. Jose Graziano da Silva, FAO’s representative for Latin America and the Caribbean who was elected as director general for a term that begins in January, said after his election that the G-20 had given FAO “new responsibility.”