California Housing Market Update

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Presentation transcript:

California Housing Market Update Monthly Sales and Price Statistics November 2018

Home Sales: Largest Decline Since 2014 California, November 2018 Sales: 381,400 Units, -4.6% YTD, -13.4% YTY Nov-17: 440,340 Nov-18: 381,400 Peak:624,957 units in 2005 Valley:189,345 units in 1982 2012 annual sales up 4.3% from 2011 2011 annual sales up 1.4% from 2010 2010 annual sales down 12.3% from 2009 2009 annual sales up 24.5% from 2008 2008 annual sales up 30.4% from 2007 2007 annual sales down 33.4% from 2006 2006 annual sales down 23.8% from 2005 2005 annual sales up 0.8% from 2004 2004 annual sales up 3.8% from 2003 2003 annual sales up 7.6% from 2002 2002 annual sales up 14.1% from 2001 2001 annual sales down 4.7% from 2000 YTD 2000 annual sales up 1.4 from 1999 1999 sales up 7.3% over 1998 10/93: 41.0 Consumer Confidence 01/00: 148.6 03/03: 63.0 5/07: 128.4 2/09: 23.9 SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® *Sales are seasonally adjusted and annualized

CA Home Sales: Declining Trend Data from historical file SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® *Sales are seasonally adjusted and annualized 3

Bay Area Sales: Double-Digit Decline Data from historical file SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® *Sales are not seasonally adjusted and annualized 4

So CA Home Sales Off Double-Digits YoY % chg. Data from historical file SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® *Sales are not seasonally adjusted and annualized 5

Central Valley Sales: Declining Trend YoY % chg. Data from historical file SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® *Sales are not seasonally adjusted and annualized 6

Sales Declined in All Price Segments November 2018 (Year-to-Year) Data found in MPPA SERIES: Sales of Existing Detached Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

YTY Home Price Gains Moderating California, November 2018: $554,760, -3.0% MTM, +1.5% YTY Nov-18: $554,760 Nov-17: $546,820 SERIES: Median Price of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Prices Growth Slowing From historical SERIES: Median Price of Existing Condo/Townhomes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Condo/Townhome Median Price Leveling Off Nov-18: $465,770 Nov-17: $451,250 SERIES: Median Price of Existing Condos/Townhomes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

CA Median Price Monthly Change SERIES: Median Price of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® 11

Evidence of Softening Prices at Upper – End From Jordan SERIES: Median Price of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

List Price Suggests a Bounce Back in Sales Price Growth in the Near Term SERIES: Sales Price Growth and List Price Growth of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

42.5% Listings Have Price Reductions Share of Listings with Price Reduction: 42.5%; Median Reduction Amount: -4.4% From Jordan SERIES: Listing Price of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Price Per Square Flat MTM November 2018: $282, Down 0.0% MTM, Up 1.8% YTY Nov-18: $282 Nov-17: $277 SERIES: Median Price Per Square Feet of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Sales-to-List Price Ratio Dropping November 2018: 97.9%, -0.2% MTM, -1.0% YTY Nov-17: 98.9% Nov-18: 97.9% SERIES: Sales to List Ratio of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Biggest Drop at High – End From Jordan SERIES: Sales to List Ratio of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Time on Market Up as the Market Slows November 2018: 28.0 Days Range since 1988: Low - 21.9 days in May 2004 High – 93 days in Feb 1993 SERIES: Median Time of Market of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Median Time on Market by Percentile From Jordan SERIES: Median Time on Market of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Inventory Index on the Rise November 2017: 2.9 Months; November 2018: 3.7 Months Range since 1988: Low: 1.3 months in May 2004 High: 18.8 months in Apr 1991 Long-run average: 6.9 months Note: “Unsold Inventory Index” represents the number of months it would take to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question. The remaining inventory for the month is defined as the number of properties that were “Active”, “Pending”, and “Contingent” (when available) and divide the sum by the number of “Sold” properties for the month in question. SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Active Listings Up 8th Consecutive Month Data from Sales vs Listings SERIES: Active Listing of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Listings Up Across the Board, Except Under $200K Nov 2018 Data from UIPR SERIES: Active Listings of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Inventory Growing as Sales Fall Data from historical Note: “Unsold Inventory Index” represents the number of months it would take to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question. The remaining inventory for the month is defined as the number of properties that were “Active”, “Pending”, and “Contingent” (when available) and divide the sum by the number of “Sold” properties for the month in question. SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Active Listings Increased in All Regions Data from sales vs listings SERIES: Active Listings of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Active Listings Increased in All Regions Nov 2018 Data from sales vs listings SERIES: Sales and Listings of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Inventory Index Highest at Upper End Data from UIPR SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

56,126 Listings in Nov vs. 42,841 Last Year From Jordan