1. 2018 Housing Market Forecast
Leslie Appleton-Young
Chief Economist & Vice President

3. 2017 Forecast Report Card SFH Resales (000s) % Change
Median Price ($000s)
30-Yr FRM
Housing Affordability Index
U.S. Gross Domestic Product
2016 Actual
416.7
1.8%
$502.3
5.4%
3.6%
31%
1.6%
2017 Forecast
413.0
1.4%
$525.6
4.3%
4.0%
29%
2.2%
2017 Projected
421.9
1.3%
$538.5
7.2%
4.0%
29%
2.1%
The numbers in both “% change” in the “2017 Forecast” column were calculated based on 2016 projected figures, instead of the 2016 actual figures.  Because the 2016 Actual sales and price are different from the 2016 projected sales and price, the “% changes” in the “2017 Forecast” column are into consisitent with those numbers. We appear to be right on for the 30-YR FRM between the forecast and the projected, but there is a bit of luck involved.  If we were to do the forecast after the election, we would have predicted a higher interest rate instead. 

4. What to expect in 2018 US economic and job growth expanding
CA economy out-preforming the nation – maybe not
Rates rising in response to growth & Fed policy
Affordability challenges for first time & repeat buyers
Boomers aren’t moving – if they do they lease more often
Millennials leaving the nest & the state “getting a life”
Listings & new units remain low wrt trend & demand
Hang-over - Formerly owner-occupied units now rentals

5. Macro Economic Outlook

6. Stronger Economic Growth in Q2 Consumer – Led Economy
3.1%
GDP 2017-Q2
3.3%
Consumption Q2
4.2%
Unemployment Sep 2017
1.2%
Job Growth Sep 2017

7. 2009 Largest Annual Drop since 1946 (-2.8%)
Economic Growth
2016: 1.6% (p) 2.1% (f) 2.3%
ANNUALLY
QUARTERLY
Notes:
E – expected, F – forecast, P- preliminary
1929 though first quarter 2009 annual GDP figures were revised in July 2009 using 2005 benchmark.
2009 Largest Annual Drop since 1946 (-2.8%)
SERIES: GDP
SOURCE: US Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis 7

8. Consumers Driving the Economy
2016: 2.7%; 2017 Q2: 3.3%
ANNUAL PERCENT CHANGE
ANNUALLY
QUARTERLY
SERIES: Personal Consumption
SOURCE: US Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis 8

9. Confidence? Holding on to “Trump Bump”
September 2017: 119.8
Trump “bump”: in Oct 2016 to right after the election
SERIES: Consumer Confidence
SOURCE: The Conference Board

10. S&P 500: Historic Highs August 2017: 2,456.2 SOURCE:
(MUST HAVE A LOGIN AND PASSWORD)
Click on Quick Order - put in code SP500 - and order

11. Mortgage Rates: Surged Post-Election
January 2010 – October 05, 2017
MONTHLY
WEEKLY
Monthly from 2009 to present, weekly for the past 8 weeks
SERIES: 30Yr FRM, 5Yr ARM
SOURCE: Freddie Mac

12. Extremely Tight Labor Markets
September 2017: US 4.2% & August 2017: CA 5.4%
CA: 5/14 7.6% 4/13 7.8% 3/14 8.1% 2/14 8.0% 1/14 8.1% 12/13 8.3% 11/13 8.5% 10/13 8.7% 9/13 8.7% 8/13 8.9% 7/13 8.5% 6/13 8.5% 5/13 8.6% 4/13 9.0% 3/13 9.4% 2/13 9.6% 1/13 9.8% 12/12 9.8% 11/12 9.9% 10/ % 9/ % 8/ % 7/ % 6/ % 5/ % 4/ % 3/ % 2/1210.8% 1/ % 12/ % 11/ % 10/ % 09/ % 08/ % 07/ % 06/ % 05/ % 04/ % 03/ % 02/ % 01/ % 12/ % 11/ % 10/ % 9/ % 8/ % 7/ % 6/ % 5/ % 4/ % 3/ % 2/ % / % / % / % 10/ % 9/ % 8/ % 7/ % 6/ % 5/ % 4/ % 3/ % 2/ % 1/09 9.7%
US: 6/14 6.1% 5/14 6.3% 4/13 6.3% 3/14 6.7% 2/14 6.7% 1/14 6.6% 12/13 6.7% 11/13 7.0% 10/13 7.3% 09/13 7.2% 08/13 7.3% 07/13 7.4% 06/13 7.6% 05/13 7.6% 04/13 7.5% 03/13 7.6% 02/13 7.7% 01/13 7.9% 12/12 7.8% 11/12 7.8% 10/12 7.9% 9/12 7.8% 8/12 8.1% 7/12 8.2% 6/12 8.2% 5/12 8.2% 4/12 8.1% 3/12 8.2% 2/12 8.3% 1/12 8.3% 12/11 8.5% 11/11 8.6% 10/11 8.9% 09/11 9.0% 08/11 9.0% 07/11 9.0% 06/11 9.1% 05/11 9.0% 04/11 9.0% 03/11 8.9% 02/11 9.0% 01/11 9.1% 12/10 9.3% 11/10 9.8% 10/10 9.5% 9/10 9.5% 8/10 9.5% 7/ % 6/ % 5/ % 4/ % 3/ % / % /10 9.8% /09 9.9% / % 10/ % 9/09 9.8% 8/09 9.6% 7/09 9.5% 6/09 9.5% 5/09 9.4% 4/09 9.0% 3/09 8.7% 2/09 8.3% 1/09 7.8%
Based on revised figures during EDD’s early-2009 rebenchmarking, CA job market has been on a par with US market over past several months.
SOURCE:
SERIES: Unemployment Rate SOURCE: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, CA Employment Development Division

13. Unemployment rate Metro Area
August 2017: California 5.4%
Source:
SERIES: Civilian Unemployment Rate
SOURCE: CA Employment Development Division

14. California 7 Year Jobs Recovery
Recession Job Losses: 1.3 million
Since Jan’10: +2.4 million
Total nonfarm, seasonally adjusted; subtracted current month with previous month.
SERIES: Total Nonfarm Employment
SOURCE: CA Employment Development Division 14

15. California Job Growth Slowing
US 1.4%
April and May 2017: CA below US for the first time since 2012
SERIES: Total Nonfarm Employment
SOURCE: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, CA Employment Development Division

16. Employment By Region SERIES: Total Nonfarm Employment
SOURCE: CA Employment Development Division

17. Construction Jobs Lead Growth
August 2017: CA +1.6%, +265,100 (YTY)
Source:
SERIES: Total Nonfarm Employment By Industry
SOURCE: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, CA Employment Development Division

18. Commercial Real Estate Outlook

19. Key Takeaways
Office
Job growth continues to fuel demand, but appears to be slowing down
Firms’ decision to increase workplace density will continue to affect vacancy and rent growth
Retail
Demand for retail space continues to be affected by the growth of e-commerce (amazon Prime: 46% US households)
Fundamentals “ok” for now, but developers concern about the future

20. Key Takeaways Industrial
Demand for industrial space remains strong as online shopping continues to grow
More supply is needed and developers are optimistic
Multifamily
Sustained job growth continues to fuel housing demand in the rental market
Rent growth leveling off as more supply come on the market
California could be overbuilding high-end multifamily housing, and might have saturated that segment of the market.

21. REALTORS® CRE U.S. Outlook
As the economic underpinnings advance at a moderate pace, commercial fundamentals are expected to maintain an upward trajectory. With employment in business and professional services still driving growth, demand for offices should remain solid. The industrial sector continues to ride the tail winds of trade and e-commerce. Even as store closures have dampened the outlook for the retail sector, demand for space is likely to continue, driven by consumer spending and changing shopping patterns. Multifamily properties benefit from a double-dose of boost—rising household formation and a shortage of residential housing— which will keep vacancies in check, even with rising new supply.

22. U.S. Economic Outlook SERIES: U.S. Economic Outlook
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

23. California Economic Outlook
SERIES: CA Economic Outlook
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

24. Abundance of Uncertainty

25. In this fascinating book, New Yorker business columnist James Surowiecki explores a deceptively simple idea: Large groups of people are smarter than an elite few, no matter how brilliant—better at solving problems, fostering innovation, coming to wise decisions, even predicting the future. 
With boundless erudition and in delightfully clear prose, Surowiecki ranges across fields as diverse as popular culture, psychology, ant biology, behavioral economics, artificial intelligence, military history, and politics to show how this simple idea offers important lessons for how we live our lives, select our leaders, run our companies, and think about our world.

26. Tax Reform

27. Tax reform passes, Sales Down & Prices Flat
President Trump’s tax reform proposal includes changes that will increase the cost of homeownership. Do you expect its effect to be:
Range since 1988:
Low: 1.3 months in April 2004
High: 18.8 months in Apr 1991
Long-run average: 6.9 months
SERIES: 2017 EXPO FUN SURVEY
SOURCE: C.A.R.

28. Impact of Tax Reform
Two Provisions on the Individual Tax Reform Proposal:
Doubling the Standard Deduction
Repeal the state and local tax deduction
Impact on the housing market:
The repeal of the state and local tax deduction increases the cost of owning a home
Incentives of using MID as a tax saving tool as a homeowner would be nullified
Home values decline as these tax saving advantages vanish

29. Impact of Tax Reform on the Housing Market
The proposed tax reform would lead to fewer sales transactions as the tax incentives of being a homeowner vanish for many who want to purchase a property. Home sales would decline 3.4 percent if the proposed tax reform were to be implemented
The decline in home values would also lead to homeowners’ reluctance to put their property on the market and further tighten up the housing supply condition in California. An estimated 1.5 percent would be lost in the first year after the implementation of the tax reform.

30. Incentives for Homeownership Obliterated
First-time buyers ($100K income, $437K home) - federal tax incentive to own vs. rent drops from $3,291 to zero in the first year.
Typical buyers ($120K income, $533.5K home):
$5,782 to $362 in the first year.
Mid-range buyers ($150K income, $615K home):
$8,099 to $1,334 in the first year.
High-end buyers/SF/LA Metro Buyers ($200K income, $1.2M home):
$16,615 to $5,725 in the first year.

31. Tax Expenditures Estimates: CA

32. Housing Market Trends

33. C.A.R. Membership & SF Sales
Sales Peaks: 1978, 1988, Membership Peaks: 1980, 1990, 2006
Membership has been rising since 2012
Variable dues formula compliance program

34. Sales: Stalled with Strong Fundamentals
August 2017 Sales: 427,630 Units, +2.7% YTD, +1.3% YTY
Aug-16: 422,190
Aug-17: 427,630
SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
*Sales are seasonally adjusted and annualized

35. Sales Began 2017 Strong … Growth Slowing
Slower than expected economic growth rate is partly to blame for the lackluster home sales in California
Supply shortage constraining the housing market
SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
*Sales are seasonally adjusted and annualized

36. CA Median Price Continues to Rise
August 2017: $565,330, +2.9% MTM, +7.2% YTY
Aug -17: $565,330
Aug-16: $527,490
SERIES: Median Price of Existing Single Family Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

37. Southern California: Peak vs. Aug 2017
SERIES: Median Price of Existing Detached Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

38. Central Valley: Peak v. Current Price
SERIES: Median Price of Existing Detached Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

39. Bay Area: Peak v. Current Price
SERIES: Median Price of Existing Detached Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

40. Supply

41. “At some point a supply problem becomes a demand problem” – Joel Singer

42. Inventory Remains on a Downward Trend
August 2017: 2.9 Months; August 2016: 3.4 Months
Active listing declining for last 26 months
Range since 1988:
Low: 1.3 months in April 2004
High: 18.8 months in Apr 1991
Long-run average: 6.9 months
Note: “Unsold Inventory Index” represents the number of months it would take to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question. The remaining inventory for the month is defined as the number of properties that were “Active”, “Pending”, and “Contingent” (when available) and divide the sum by the number of “Sold” properties for the month in question.
SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

43. Supply Declined Most in the Lower End
August 2017
SERIES: Active Listings of Existing Single Family Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

44. Inventory Continued to Drop Across All Regions
3.0
2.8
1.9
Note: “Unsold Inventory Index” represents the number of months it would take to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question. The remaining inventory for the month is defined as the number of properties that were “Active”, “Pending”, and “Contingent” (when available) and divide the sum by the number of “Sold” properties for the month in question.
SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

45. Inventory Index Highest in Millions

46. Turnover Rate Very Low: US & CA
Housing Turnover Rate
(Single-Family Homes only)
Long-Time Homeowners are not moving as in the past because:
Capital gains hit
Low property taxes
Low rate on current mortgage
Demographic shift
Where can I afford to go?
CA turnover rate trend
SERIES: Percent of existing single-family homes being sold
SOURCE: Census Bureau, American Community Survey, Moody’s Analytics, C.A.R.

47. Affordability

48. Housing Affordability In CA: 29%
2017-Q2: % able to purchase median-priced home
SERIES: Housing Affordability Index of Traditional Buyers
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

49. Housing Affordability Peaked Q1 2012
California,
Annual
Quarterly
C.A.R.’s traditional Housing Affordability Index (HAI) was replaced with the First-Time Buyer Housing Affordability Index (FTB-HAI) in 2006.
Note this slide takes the average of the 3 months in each of the quarters.
C.A.R. began producing its Housing Affordability Index (HAI) in At that time, fixed-rate mortgages were the prevailing form of financing a home purchase, while the calculations used to produce the HAI reflected a 20 percent down payment. The methodology also assumed a monthly payment for principal, interest, taxes and insurance that was no more than 30 percent of a household’s income. In the more than two decades since the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® first conceived the HAI, the mortgage finance landscape has changed dramatically. The range of mortgage products available to buyers as well as underwriting criteria has changed. C.A.R. developed the new index measuring affordability for first-time home buyers to better reflect the realities of today’s real estate market.
SERIES: Housing Affordability Index of Traditional Buyers
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

50. California’s Single-Family Housing Stock
SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau, Annual Social and Economic Supplement (ASEC) to the Current Population Survey (CPS)
Downloaded from the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

51. More Single Family Units Now Rentals
Potentially between 400,000 and 700,000 SF Rentals that Used to be Owner-Occupied
SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau, Annual Social and Economic Supplement (ASEC) to the Current Population Survey (CPS)
Downloaded from the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

52. Most Underbuilt Counties in California
SOURCE: California Employment Development Department, Construction Industry Research Board

53. Q: “How‘s the Market? A: It’s Complicated 2017 Annual Housing Market Survey

54. Methodology Started in 1981 – 36 years ago
On-line survey In the field July and August 2017
The survey was sent via to a random sample of 25,804 REALTORS® throughout California. The sample represented the geographical distribution of C.A.R. membership across the state.
Asks about closed transactions in Q2 2017
Questionnaire with both multiple choice and open-ended questions. There were 1,303 valid survey responses, equivalent to a response rate of 5.0 percent. The margin of error for this survey was +/- 2.6 percent at a 95 percent confidence level.

55. Who is Buying in California?
Median Age: 45
31%
Age 20 – 37
40%
Age 38 – 52
24%
Age 53 – 71 4%
72 and older
SERIES: 2017 Housing Market Survey
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

56. Who is Selling in California?
Median Age: 57
11%
Age 20 – 37
27%
Age 38 – 52
48%
Age 53 – 71
14%
72 and older
SERIES: 2017 Housing Market Survey
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

57. Tight Supply Pushed up Home Prices 1/3 Sold Above Asking
Long Run Average = 20%
SERIES: 2017 Housing Market Survey
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

58. Market Competitiveness Up in 2017 6 out of 10 had Multiple Offers
SERIES: 2017 Housing Market Survey
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

59. …Even Within So CA Inland Empire LA/OC/SD Southern California
Inland Empire
LA/OC/SD
Southern California
California
% with Multiple Offer
54.8%
62.7%
58.8%
60.4%
% of Sales Above
Asking Price
24.3%
33.4%
28.5%
32.9%
Days on Market
18.5 14 13
SERIES: 2017 Housing Market Survey
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

60. Competitiveness by Price Range: LA/OC/SD
$0 -$300k
$301k - $500k
$501k - $750k
$751k - $1000k
$1001 and up
All Prices
% with Multiple Offer
58.3%
67.2%
71.6%
73.5%
48.2%
62.7%
% of Sales Above
Asking Price
46.2%
32.3%
33.3%
40.0%
22.6%
33.4%
Days on Market 8 10
13.5
8.5 25 14
SERIES: 2017 Housing Market Survey
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

61. … By Region SERIES: 2017 Housing Market Survey
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

62. Most Competitive for First-Time Buyers …
First-time Buyers
Repeat Buyers
All Buyers
% with Multiple Offer
68.8%
55.5%
60.4%
% of Sales Above
Asking Price
41%
28.8%
32.9%
Days on Market 10 14 13
SERIES: 2016 Housing Market Survey
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

63. …Partly Because Many of Them Live in the Supply Constraint Bay Area
SERIES: 2017 Housing Market Survey
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

64. Share of 1sTime Buyers Up but Below LR Average National Share is 50%
SERIES: 2017 Housing Market Survey
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

65. International Buyers 3% of Transactions
The share of international buyers dropped to the lowest level in 9 years
Q. Was the buyer an international buyer – a person who was a citizen of another country who wished to purchase residential real estate in the U.S.?
SERIES: 2017 Housing Market Survey
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

66. International Buyers: Metro Areas Preferred
SERIES: 2017 Housing Market Survey
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

67. Cash Outflow Restrictions Had a Negative Effect on the Share of Chinese Buyers
2016
2017
China (53%)
China (31%)
Mexico (10%)
Mexico (6%)
India (10%)
India (9%)
Q. What country did the (international) buyer come from?
SERIES: 2017 Housing Market Survey
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

68. Share of Cash Buyers Steady
One-fifth of buyers paid with all cash
The share of all cash buyers is virtually unchanged in the last 4 years
SERIES: 2017 Housing Market Survey
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

69. Investor Buyers Inched Up in 2017; More Flippers in the Market
Vs.
Flip
Rent
2014: 30%
2015: 26%
2016: 20%
2017: 24%
2014: 70%
2015: 74%
2016: 80%
2017: 76%
SERIES: 2017 Housing Market Survey
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® 69

70. Net Cash Gain to Sellers Highest since 2006
Q. What was the net cash gain or net loss to the seller as a result of this sale?
SERIES: 2017 Housing Market Survey
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

71. Sellers with Net Cash Loss Dropped to the Lowest Level in the last 11 years
Long Run Average = 11.2%
Q. What was the net cash gain or net loss to the seller as a result of this sale?
SERIES: 2017 Housing Market Survey
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

72. Sellers Are Not Moving as Often as Before
Long-Time Homeowners are not moving as in the past because:
Capital gains hit
Low property taxes
Low rate on current mortgage
Where can I afford to go?
Remodel and stay
SERIES: 2017 Housing Market Survey
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

73. Sellers Who Planned to Buy Another Home Reached the Highest Level since 2006
SERIES: 2017 Housing Market Survey
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

74. Sellers Moving out of California: Highest since 2007
Location of Seller’s New Home
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Within the same county
37%
45%
47%
42%
49%
46%
44%
40%
38%
In another county in California
24%
17%
21%
19%
18%
20%
In another state
29%
27%
22%
25%
28%
Out of US 1% 2% 0%
Don't Know/Not sure 9%
10%
12%
16%
15%
13%
14%
Total
100%
SERIES: 2017 Housing Market Survey
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

75. FHA Loans Lowest since 2007 Q. Please indicate the type of mortgage.
SERIES: 2017 Housing Market Survey
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

76. How Client Found Their Agent
Q. How did your client find and select you to represent them?
SERIES: 2017 Housing Market Survey
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

77. Regional Housing Markets

78. $390,000 Northern California -0.2% YTD 6.6% YTY 9.9% YTY 3.6 20.0 $213
Sales
Median Price
$390,000
9.9% YTY
-0.2% YTD
6.6% YTY
UII
MTM
Price
Sales
3.6
20.0
$213
98.2%
Months
Days
Per Sq Ft
To List Ratio

79. 2017 Northern California YTD Sales: Mixed Bag

80. 2017 Northern California Median Prices YTY

81. $613,500 Northern Wine -2.9% YTD 3.9% YTY 7.8% YTY 3.5 40.0 $359
Sales
Median Price
$613,500
7.8% YTY
-2.9% YTD
3.9% YTY
UII
MTM
Price
Sales
3.5
40.0
$359
100.0%
Months
Days
Per Sq Ft
To List Ratio

82. 2017 Northern Wine YTD Sales

83. 2017 Northern Wine Median Prices YTY

84. $856,200 Bay Area 2.6% YTD 6.5% YTY 10.2% YTY 1.9 15.0 $489 101.9%
Sales
Median Price
$856,200
10.2% YTY
2.6% YTD
6.5% YTY
UII
MTM
Price
Sales
1.9
15.0
$489
101.9%
Months
Days
Per Sq Ft
To List Ratio

85. 2017 Bay Area YTD Sales

86. 2017 Bay Area Median Prices YTY

87. $315,000 Central Valley 1.5% YTD 4.6% YTY 8.6% YTY 2.8 15.0 $185 99.2%
Sales
Median Price
$315,000
8.6% YTY
1.5% YTD
4.6% YTY
UII
MTM
Price
Sales
2.8
15.0
$185
99.2%
Months
Days
Per Sq Ft
To List Ratio

88. 2017 Central Valley YTD Sales

89. 2017 Central Valley Median Prices YTY

90. $635,000 Central Coast 1.3% YTD 7.1% YTY -2.1% YTY 4.3 24.0 $376 97.9%
Sales
Median Price
$635,000
-2.1% YTY
1.3% YTD
7.1% YTY
UII
MTM
Price
Sales
4.3
24.0
$376
97.9%
Months
Days
Per Sq Ft
To List Ratio

91. 2017 Central Coast YTD Sales

92. 2017 Central Coast Median Prices YTY

93. $528,000 Southern California 3.4% YTD 4.8% YTY 6.7% YTY 3.0 20.0 $301
Sales
Median Price
$528,000
6.7% YTY
3.4% YTD
4.8% YTY
UII
MTM
Price
Sales
3.0
20.0
$301
98.9%
Months
Days
Per Sq Ft
To List Ratio

94. 2017 Southern Cal YTD Sales

95. 2017 Southern Cal Median Prices YTY

96. 2017 Forecast

97. How’s the market? A tad hot.
How would you describe the real estate market in your area today?
SERIES: 2017 EXPO FUN SURVEY
SOURCE: C.A.R.

98. Prices Up, Sales Flat, Rates Up, Affordability
What do you think will happen for the CA market in 2018?
SERIES: 2017 EXPO FUN SURVEY
SOURCE: C.A.R.

99. Challenges: Affordability and Supply
What will be the biggest challenge for the housing market in 2018?
SERIES: 2017 EXPO FUN SURVEY
SOURCE: C.A.R.

100. California Housing Market Outlook
SERIES: CA Housing Market Outlook
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

101. Sales and Price up in 2017 and in 2018
SERIES: CA Housing Market Outlook
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

102. CA: Dollar Volume Up 8.6% in 2017, Up 5.2% in 2018
$ in Billion
% Change
SERIES: CA Housing Market Outlook
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

103. 2017 Challenges & Opportunities

104. SMD’s: Slow Moving Disasters
CA Housing Affordability Crisis
CA Pension Funds
Boomers: Not prepared for Retirement
Millennials: Student Loan Debt
Skewing of the Income Distribution
Institutional Investor ownership of SFH
Tax Reform

105. Lack of Affordability Biggest Challenge
Q2 - What will be the biggest challenge for the housing market in 2017?

106. 2018 Opportunities Up your game – Do YOU.
What is your WHY? Selling houses or changing lives?
Revisit: What business are YOU in? Find your niche
Reconnect: Who are YOUR clients?
Educate first time-home buyers – Focus on Financial Literacy Become well versed on down payment assistance programs, debt management and improving credit
Reach out to Boomers
Think globally – We may be affordable for some

107. One more thing…

108. All Creatures Great and Small
Do you have a pet / Do you consider your pet a part of your family
SERIES: 2017 EXPO FUN SURVEY
SOURCE: C.A.R.

109. 4 out of 10 – Pet Drives Moving Decisions
If you were to move, would your pets' needs be paramount in your purchase decision.
SERIES: 2017 EXPO FUN SURVEY
SOURCE: C.A.R.

110. Speaking of independence…
What about a different kind of animal... Do you live with a Millennial?
Do you pay for their cell phone plan?
SERIES: 2017 EXPO FUN SURVEY
SOURCE: C.A.R.

111. The 2% - Have you done your part?
SERIES: 2017 EXPO FUN SURVEY
SOURCE: C.A.R.

112. Thank You & Congratulations
Joanie and Coy
Trisha and Michael
Miriam and Anthony Andaya
SDAR – former board President – proposed at his inaugration
Joanie & Coy
Trisha & Michael
Miriam & Anthony

113. The Economy of Love Give Freely Receive Graciously Thank You