Development of the 2007 Census of Agriculture Mail List Stan Hoge and Bill Iwig National Agricultural Statistics Service

Overview Background List Development Cycle 2002 Census Coverage Results Census Coverage Goals Steps to Meet Established Goals List Building Results Suggestions for the 2012 CML

Background NASS has responsibility for an annual agricultural survey program and the Census of Agriculture every five years. The NASS list frame supports both programs requiring: Adequate production coverage and accurate control data for the survey programs. Adequate farm coverage for the census. List development is an on-going process involving adding new records and updating current records.

List Development Cycle New List Sources New List Sources Annual Survey Program Record Linkage Screen for Potential Farms Updates and Maintenance Updated List Frame (active, inactive and potential farm records) Census Mail List

2002 Census Coverage Results CategoryTotal Percent from Coverage Adjustment All Farms2,128, Land in Farms (acres)938,279, Farms by Value of Sales: Less than $1,000570, $1,000 to $2,499255, $2,500 to $4,999213, $5,000 to $9,999223,

2002 Census Coverage Results Minority GroupNo. Farms Percent from Coverage Adjustment Female237, Hispanic50, Am. Indian or Alaska Native15, Asian6, Black/African Am.29, Native Hawaiian More than one race7,

2002 Census Coverage Results Coverage Adjustment of Total Number of Farms

Census Coverage Goals Increase minority farm coverage from 68% to 73%. Maintain coverage of farms with $50,000 or more in agricultural sales at 95%. Reach at least 75% coverage of all farms for all States. Set a Target CML Size = 3.1 million records.

CML Size vs. Farm Coverage

Steps to Meet Established Goals Aggressive list-building guided by annual Field Office (FO) list-building plans. Outreach to minority and socially disadvantaged farm operators. Introduction of the Agricultural Identification Survey (AIS). Improvements to record-linkage processing. Set State level target CMLs.

Census List Development by Source, 2002 and 2007 Source New Adds (Million) Reactivated Criteria (Million) FTI/FSA/InfoUSA State Sources Total

Minority Counts (U.S.) List Control vs. Census Adjusted Type 2002 Census January 2005 June 2007% Increase Am Indian15,49410,99344, Asian8,3755,1488,16059 Black/African American 29,09014,77043, Female237,819163,755333, More than one race 7,6617,39421, Native Hawaiian 9831,4813, Hispanic50,59221,91444,518103

Agriculture Identification Survey Results (Screener for Potential Farms) Survey PeriodTotal Mailed In-Scope 1/ Out of Scope Not Returned Fall ,71732,83318,542110,990 Spring ,72231,11217,48134,257 Fall ,17947,54019,04449,902 Spring ,66351,26032,734108,053 Fall 20061,065,311472,728157,990361,558 Total1,733,592635,473245,791664,760 1/ Response with data and available for CML

Set State-level CML Targets Allocation of U.S. Target CML (3.1 million). Based on State coverage history, population distribution and current farm number estimates. Provided guide to FOs in managing list building. Expect approximately 3.4 million available records so plan to trim marginal records for some States. Potential farm records with probable bad addresses Records from poor quality list sources FO Input through CML Target Evaluation and Trim Plans Records identified by Classification And Regression Trees Model (CART), based on percent active on survey frame.

Suggestions for the 2012 CML Analyze the effectiveness of available list sources. Analyze the effectiveness of the AIS and the entire Census list-building process. Provide firmer and earlier guidance to the FOs on list-building expectations. Increase automation of record linkage as appropriate.

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