No Labels: “Break the Gridlock” Congressional Poll

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Presentation transcript:

No Labels: “Break the Gridlock” Congressional Poll September 2018

About the 2018 No Labels “Break the Gridlock” Congressional Poll Survey Methodology: HarrisX conducted an online survey from September 7-8, 2018 of U.S. adults, registered voters (RVs), and likely 2018 midterm voters (Likely Voters), asking their opinions about a range of issues facing Congress, as well as some proposed plans to change the rules in Congress. Note: Some percentages on the following slides may not add up to exactly 100% due to rounding Note: Likely voters are not required to be currently registered The sample sizes and sampling margins of error for each audience are as follows: U.S. Adults (n=1620, sampling margin of error of 2.43%) Registered Voters (n=1215, sampling margin of error of 2.81%) Likely 2018 Midterm Voters (n=1019, sampling margin of error of 3.07%)

Americans’ Views of Congress, Political Parties, and Congressional Leaders

86% of Likely Voters believe that America won’t find solutions to its biggest problems until Republicans and Democrats work on compromises America won’t find solutions to its biggest problems until Republicans and Democrats come together to work on compromises (Likely Voters) Disagree: 10% Very conservative: 18% 18-34: 17% Urban: 16% 35-49: 15% Very liberal: 15% Agree: 86% 65+: 96% Somewhat liberal: 93% Somewhat conservative: 92% 50-64: 90% BASE: Likely Voters (n=1019) Q42: Here are several elements of a plan to change the rules in Congress. Please indicate whether you support or oppose each item. If you aren’t sure, just say so.

Over four-in-five Likely Voters believe that Congress operates in a way that creates an “all or nothing” situation, and nothing gets done Congress operates in a way that creates an “all or nothing” situation in which both sides refuse to compromise, and nothing gets done (Likely Voters) Disagree: 11% 18-34: 17% 35-49: 17% Urban: 16% Agree: 83% 65+: 93% Somewhat liberal: 93% 50-64: 90% College grad: 88% Rural: 87% BASE: Likely Voters (n=1019) Q40: Here are several elements of a plan to change the rules in Congress. Please indicate whether you support or oppose each item. If you aren’t sure, just say so.

Over seven-in-ten Likely Voters believe that both parties in Congress are controlled by their most ideologically extreme members Both parties in Congress are controlled by their most ideologically extreme members (Likely Voters) Disagree: 19% Very liberal: 35% Democrat: 27% Urban: 26% 35-49: 25% 18-34: 23% Agree: 72% Republican: 80% Somewhat conservative: 80% Independent: 79% 65+: 78% Rural: 76% BASE: Likely Voters (n=1019) Q39: Here are several elements of a plan to change the rules in Congress. Please indicate whether you support or oppose each item. If you aren’t sure, just say so.

Who should members of Congress work with? (Likely Voters) Over four-in-five Likely Voters think that those in Congress should work across party lines more often, as opposed with only their own party Who should members of Congress work with? (Likely Voters) They should work with only members of their own party more often They should work across party lines more often 18-34: 34% Urban: 26% 65+: 95% 50-64: 92% Somewhat conservative: 91% BASE: Likely Voters (n=1019) Q25: Do you think that those in Congress should work with only members of their own party more often, or work across party lines more often?

Each party should stick to its own principles Over four-in-five Likely Voters think that each party should work across party lines to get things done, even if it means they need to compromise Should parties stick to their principles or strive to work across party lines and compromise? (Likely Voters) Each party should stick to its own principles Each party should work across party lines to get things done, even if it means that they need to compromise 18-34: 29% 35-49: 25% Very conservative: 25% Urban: 25% 65: 95% Somewhat liberal: 95% 50-64: 93% Suburban: 89% Democrat: 89% BASE: Likely Voters (n=1019) Q26: Do you think that each party should stick to its own principles, or work across party lines to get things done even if it means that they need to compromise?

Two-thirds of Likely Voters believe that neither party is really representing their needs or interests Neither party is really representing my needs or interests (Likely Voters) Disagree: 28% Very liberal: 38% Democrat: 34% HS/less: 32% Republican: 31% 18-34: 31% Agree: 66% Independent: 79% College grad: 73% Moderate: 71% Somewhat liberal: 70% 65+: 70% BASE: Likely Voters (n=1019) Q41: Here are several elements of a plan to change the rules in Congress. Please indicate whether you support or oppose each item. If you aren’t sure, just say so.

Nearly two-thirds of Likely Voters say they would like to see more members of Congress from the center of the ideological spectrum Would you like to see more members of Congress from the right, the center or the left? (Likely Voters) The left The center The right Moderate: 87% Independent: 71% HS/Less: 71% Democrat: 70% Women: 70% BASE: Likely Voters (n=1019) Q27: Would you like to see more members of Congress from the right, the center or the left?

Source of problems in Congress (Likely Voters) A majority of Likely Voters believe that the problems in Congress are mostly the fault of both parties’ leaders, as opposed to rank-and file members Source of problems in Congress (Likely Voters) Mostly the fault of both parties’ leaders Mostly the fault of rank-and-file members There are no significant problems in Congress Independent: 63% Moderate: 59% Very liberal: 50% Black: 48% Democrat: 47% BASE: Likely Voters (n=1019) Q23: Do you think that the problems in Congress are mostly the fault of both parties' leaders or the rank-and- file members?

Who do most members of Congress primarily serve? (Likely Voters) Three-quarters of Likely Voters say that most members of Congress serve at the direction of party leaders, as opposed to their constituents Who do most members of Congress primarily serve? (Likely Voters) Serve as independent voices for their constituents Serve at the direction of party leaders 65+: 88% 50-64: 86% Rural: 83% Somewhat liberal: 83% Very conservative: 81% Men: 80% Republican: 80% 18-34: 40% 35-49: 34% Urban: 34% BASE: Likely Voters (n=1019) Q24: Do you think that most of those in Congress today serve as independent voices for their constituents or serve at the direction of party leaders?

Reactions to “Break the Gridlock” Rule Changes for Congress

Over 70% of Likely Voters support requiring that the Speaker of the House is elected by a majority of the entire Congress, not just one party Require that the Speaker of the House be elected by a majority of the entire Congress, not just one party Oppose: 19% Very conservative: 37% Republican: 31% Support: 72% Democrat: 81% Very liberal: 18% BASE: Likely Voters (n=1019) Q50: Here are several elements of a plan to change the rules in Congress. Please indicate whether you support or oppose each item. If you aren’t sure, just say so.

Over three-quarters of Likely Voters support giving both parties fair representation on the committee that decides the rules of Congress Give both the majority and minority parties fair representation on the committee that decides what the rules of Congress will be so that neither party can have total control Oppose: 13% Very conservative: 26% Republican: 21% Support: 77% Somewhat liberal: 92% 65+: 84% Moderate: 83% Democrat: 82% BASE: Likely Voters (n=1019) Q47: Here are several elements of a plan to change the rules in Congress. Please indicate whether you support or oppose each item. If you aren’t sure, just say so.

Make bipartisan bills the priority for votes on the floor of Congress Over 70% of Likely Voters support making bipartisan bills the priority for votes on the floor of Congress Make bipartisan bills the priority for votes on the floor of Congress Oppose: 12% Very conservative: 25% Support: 71% 65+: 84% Somewhat liberal: 82% College grad: 77% BASE: Likely Voters (n=1019) Q48: Here are several elements of a plan to change the rules in Congress. Please indicate whether you support or oppose each item. If you aren’t sure, just say so.

Over three-quarters of Likely Voters support establishing a bipartisan annual joint meeting to help encourage bipartisan cooperation Establish a bipartisan annual joint meeting at the U.S. Capitol at the beginning of each Congress to discuss the term’s legislative agenda and help encourage bipartisan cooperation Oppose: 9% 35-49: 13% Support: 77% Somewhat liberal: 91% 65+ 84% College grad: 83% Men: 82% 50-64: 81% BASE: Likely Voters (n=1019) Q49: Here are several elements of a plan to change the rules in Congress. Please indicate whether you support or oppose each item. If you aren’t sure, just say so.

allow any individual lawmaker to trigger this vote at any time) Less than half of Likely Voters support making it harder to remove the Speaker of the House by requiring a public petition from one-third of Congress Make it harder to remove the Speaker of the House by requiring a public petition from one-third of members of Congress to trigger the vote of replacement (the current rules allow any individual lawmaker to trigger this vote at any time) Oppose: 28% 50-64: 33% Men: 32% Somewhat conservative: 32% Very conservative: 32% Support: 49% 18-34: 57% BASE: Likely Voters (n=1019) Q50A: Here are several elements of a plan to change the rules in Congress. Please indicate whether you support or oppose each item. If you aren’t sure, just say so.

Nearly three-quarters of Likely Voters support the package of these proposed plans to change the rules in Congress Support or oppose proposed plans to change the rules in Congress (Likely Voters) Oppose: 13% Very conservative: 24% 18-34: 18% Support: 72% Somewhat liberal: 87% 65+: 80% BASE: Likely Voters (n=1019) Q51: And now, after all that you have read about the elements of the plan described in the previous question, would you say you support or oppose these changes?

More than two-thirds of Likely Voters would be more likely to vote for a candidate who supported these proposed plans Effect of candidate’s support of proposed plans on vote for Congress (Likely Voters) Less Likely: 13% Very conservative: 26% 18-34: 18% 35-49: 18% Republican: 17% More Likely: 68% Somewhat liberal: 85% 65+: 82% Democrat: 74% College grad: 73% Very liberal: 73% BASE: Likely Voters (n=1019) Q52: And would you be more or less likely to vote for a candidate who supported changes to the rules in the next Congress in a way that diminishes the influences of the extremes in both parties and makes it easier for bipartisan legislation to get a shot at becoming law?

About half of LVs would support their member of Congress withholding their vote for the next Speaker until these rule changes are enacted by Congress Support or oppose your member of Congress withholding their vote for the next Speaker of the House until these rule changes are enacted by Congress (Likely Voters) Oppose: 26% Very conservative: 44% Republican: 36% Somewhat conservative: 35% 65+: 33% Support: 49% Somewhat liberal: 64% 18-34: 59% Democrat: 56% Very liberal: 56% 35-49: 55% Moderate: 55% Urban: 55% BASE: Likely Voters (n=1019) Q53: Would you support or oppose your member of Congress withholding their vote for the next Speaker of the House until these rule changes are enacted by Congress?