Issues for regional modeling

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Presentation transcript:

Issues for regional modeling Hugo Berbery and Wayne Higgins, Dave Gutzler, Dave Gochis

NAME DELIVERABLES Observing system design for monitoring and predicting the North American monsoon system. More comprehensive understanding of North American summer climate variability and predictability. Measurably improved climate models that predict North American monsoon variability months to seasons in advance. What is the best strategy for improvements in operational climate prediction of warm season precipitation?

MULTI-SCALE MODEL DEVELOPMENT Premise The leading factors that limit precipitation forecast skill in both global and regional models during the warm season are deficiencies in how we model “local” processes that modulate deep convection. In order to achieve the desired improvements, NAME will focus on -land/atmosphere interactions in the presence of complex terrain and land/sea contrasts; - moist convection in the presence of complex terrain and land/sea contrasts; - ocean/atmosphere interactions in coastal regions with complex terrain

9 Recommendations for NAME CLIVAR SSC - 9 Recommendations for NAME Scientific Determine role of oceanic processes (e.g. regulation of moisture supply) in the dynamics of the monsoon. Increase emphasis on relevant marine data to support monsoon modeling and the interpretation of continental observations. Ocean Processes Land Surface Processes Enhance land surface observations and modeling including land data assimilation. Develop cloud modeling strategy to study precipitation over complex terrain and the behavior of convection over warm continents, key issues in model development. Modeling Climate Studies

NAME will have much to gain if a workstation-based (Linux) DAS becomes - Notable advancements in understanding mesoscale processes are the result of the widespread availability of regional models (MM5, Eta, RAMS…). - However, there are some aspects that are yet not well understood because there are no clear diagnostics of the phenomena. - To be of best use, observations need to be blended into a consistent and balanced multi-variable data set: this is the purpose of a data assimilation system. NAME will have much to gain if a workstation-based (Linux) DAS becomes available to the research community.

Strategy and Tools Regional modeling Data assimilation Modeling Diagnosis Data assimilation

Phenomena with a role in the evolution/maintenance of the NAM - The diurnal cycle - Low level jet - Surges - Surface processes (Land; Ocean/Gulf) – Heat low? - MCCs

Resolution issues: Dynamical Core Physics

Parameterization issues: Gochis et al. 2002 Kain-Fritsch B-M-J Grell PERSIANN

The diurnal cycle

The diurnal cycle The critical role of the diurnal cycle in model simulations is emphasized here. The arrows represent the moisture fluxes estimated from Eta model analyses. The afternoon maximum fluxes into land are followed by large convective precipitation over the western part of Mexico. Satellite estimates of precipitation have been used.

The diurnal cycle of moisture flux convergence EDAS 1995/1997

NAMAP

Gochis et al. 2003 The diurnal cycle from precipitation observations 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 Time of Day (LST- Local Solar Time) Precipitation Rate (mm/hr) Network Mean (n=47) 0-500 (n=14) 500-1000 (n=10) 1000-1500 (n=1) 1500-2000 (n=9) 2000-2500 (n=11) 2500-3000 (n=2) Gochis et al. 2003

The low-level jet

ETA

The diurnal cycle The critical role of the diurnal cycle in model simulations is emphasized here. The arrows represent the moisture fluxes estimated from Eta model analyses. The afternoon maximum fluxes into land are followed by large convective precipitation over the western part of Mexico. Satellite estimates of precipitation have been used.

Transients and surges

Transients and surges Transient fluxes supply moisture to the southwestern United States. These transients are mostly the result of moisture surges along the Gulf of California, usually due to the passage of easterly waves and tropical storms.

SG GCM – summer 1993 Great Plains LLJ Gulf of California LLJ (Along the Gulf)

Surge No surge Percentage of precipitation over the southwestern United States due to surge events (lower left panel). Percentage of precipitation due to non-surge cases

Percentage of total precipitation Surge No Surge

Surface processes

High resolution LDAS needed. Apply here How are surface processes represented in regional models? - Vegetation/soil moisture/etc over sloping terrain - Surface Fluxes High resolution LDAS needed. Apply here Do the Gulf of California SSTs have an effect on the local circulations? Evaporation?

Final comments (1) What we have today: - Different types of observations are (or will become) available. - Regional models are available. The missing link: A user friendly Data Assimilation System for research/application purposes.

Final comments (2) 1. A comment on the diurnal cycle studies: The study of the diurnal cycle of surface fluxes should go before the study if the diurnal cycle of convection/precipitation (Surface fluxes over land and over the Gulf). And what is the diurnal cycle of MCCs and surges? 2. Verification issues: Let’s not confuse observations with truth

1. Can we identify what is failing in models in the core monsoon, but is working in other regions? 2. Can we identify if the failure is dynamical or physical?