Session II. Long-Term Aspects Murray Sherwin, Chair, New Zealand Productivity Commission 8th Annual NBP Conference on the Future of the European Economy (CoFEE), 26 October 2018

Figure 1: Budget 2018 fiscal outlook Setting the scene Figure 1: Budget 2018 fiscal outlook

Per capita incomes stuck below the top half of the OECD Figure 2: GDP per capita relative to the top half of the OECD Source: OECD.Stat

Key themes Economic geography Competition intensity Innovation diffusion Capital v labour intensity Industry structure Public sector productivity Coping with climate change

Capital formation below the average of top OECD countries Figure 5: Gross fixed non-residential capital formation (per person in labour force) Source: OECD.Stat

Resources getting stuck in low productivity firms Figure 6: Share of resources by productivity quartile Source: Meehan (2018)

Further information murray.sherwin@productivity.govt.nz www.productivity.govt.nz Twitter: @Nzprocom

Stalling capital deepening in the measured sector Table 1: Measured sector productivity growth over growth cycles Growth Cycle Labour productivity Multifactor productivity Contribution of capital deepening 1997-2000 2.9 1.9 1.0 2000-2008 1.3 0.5 0.8 2008-2017 1.1 0.6 1996-2017 1.5 0.7 Source: Statistics New Zealand

Low productivity levels and growth Figure 3: Average growth in labour productivity and GDP per hour worked Source: OECD.Stat

Recent population growth driven by migration Figure 4: Contributions to population growth Source: Statistics New Zealand

Disconnected and stuck Figure 7: Drivers of a low productivity equilibrium Source: Conway (2018)