1. China’s Growth: The Making of an Economic Superpower Linda Yueh www.lindayueh.com Twitter @lindayueh

2. China’s Growth: The Making of an Economic Superpower What has driven growth since 1979? Re-balancing challenges Goal for next 30 years: Overcoming the “middle income country trap” 2

3. China vs G7 3

4. Average income near “trap” level

5. 5

6. China’s impressive growth 6

7. Growth drivers 7 60-70% from capital/labour 30-40% TFP productivity 9.6% average GDP growth

8. 8 50% adding capital 10-20% adding workers 60-70% Factor accumulation

9. 9 11-15% Human capital 8-15% Re- allocative efficiency 16-17% Innovation 30-40% TFP

10. 10 Up to 2/3rd Imitation 6-13% Technology 16-17% Innovation

11. Contributions to growth  Factor accumulation: 60-70% Capital accumulation: 50% Labour accumulation: 10-20%  Total Factor Productivity (TFP): 30-40% Human capital: 11-15% Factor re-allocation: 8-15% Innovation: 16-17% minus “imitation” = 6-13% 11

12. Re-balancing challenges (1) Increase reliance on own market, less on exports (2) Raise consumption, reduce inefficient savings (3) Grow private sector, reduce distortions from state- owned sector (4) Increase innovation, as imitation limits reached (5) Continued opening, include firms “going global” 12

13. 13 (1) Re-balancing towards services Services Industry Agriculture

14. 14 (2) Raise consumption as % GDP

15. 15 (2) Address growth in savings Share of GDP

16. (3) Reduce state sector? 16 State-owned enterprises Private firms

17. (3) State-owned sector still important for jobs 17

18. (3) Notable productivity differences 18

19. (3) Also in return on assets 19

20. (4) Signs of innovation 20

21. 21 (5) China “going global” Source: IMF.

22. Salter-Swan Model linking interest rate & exchange rate reforms

23. 23 The next decades of reform 2020: Re-structuring the economy 2030: Productivity & innovation as growth drivers 2040: Stable & strong institutional foundations

24. China’s Growth: The Making of an Economic Superpower Linda Yueh www.lindayueh.com Twitter @lindayueh