Environmental Surprise

Environmental Surprise Three elements of environmental surprise Discontinuity: “An abrupt shift in a trend or a previously stable state.” It is the time scale which matters. An example is that overfishing can result, not in gradual decline, but in a population crash. Synergism: “…several phenomena combine to produce an effect that is greater than would have been expected from adding up their effects taken separately.”   Unnoticed Trend: The third element of environmental surprise is an unnoticed trend: “An unnoticed trend even if it produces no discontinuities or synergisms, may still do a surprising amount of damage before it is discovered.”

Hurricane Pam Was this an element in Hurricane Pam? Yes No Do not know Discontinuity: “An abrupt shift in a trend or a previously stable state.” It is the time scale which matters. An example is that overfishing can result, not in gradual decline, but in a population crash. Was this an element in Hurricane Pam? Yes No Do not know

Hurricane Pam Was this an element in Hurricane Pam? Yes No Do not know Synergism: “…several phenomena combine to produce an effect that is greater than would have been expected from adding up their effects taken separately.” Was this an element in Hurricane Pam? Yes No Do not know

Hurricane Pam Was this an element in Hurricane Pam? Yes No Do not know Unnoticed Trend: The third element of environmental surprise is an unnoticed trend: “An unnoticed trend even if it produces no discontinuities or synergisms, may still do a surprising amount of damage before it is discovered.” Was this an element in Hurricane Pam? Yes No Do not know

Hurricane Katrina Was this an element in Hurricane Katrina? Yes No Discontinuity: “An abrupt shift in a trend or a previously stable state.” It is the time scale which matters. An example is that overfishing can result, not in gradual decline, but in a population crash. Was this an element in Hurricane Katrina? Yes No Do not know

Hurricane Katrina Was this an element in Hurricane Katrina? Yes No Synergism: “…several phenomena combine to produce an effect that is greater than would have been expected from adding up their effects taken separately.” Was this an element in Hurricane Katrina? Yes No Do not know

Hurricane Katrina Was this an element in Hurricane Katrina? Yes No Unnoticed Trend: The third element of environmental surprise is an unnoticed trend: “An unnoticed trend even if it produces no discontinuities or synergisms, may still do a surprising amount of damage before it is discovered.” Was this an element in Hurricane Katrina? Yes No Do not know