European Semester Autumn Package Joint EMCO-SPC meeting 30 November 2017

2018 Autumn Package Annual Growth Survey 2018 Draft Joint Employment Report 2018 Proposal for amended Employment Guidelines Alert Mechanism Report 2018 Euro Area Recommendation 2018

2018 Annual Growth Survey Strong growth Virtuous triangle of economic policy: investment, structural reforms, fiscal responsibility. Integration of the Social Pillar Preparing for the future of work

2018 Draft Joint Employment Report Key Messages Trends including scoreboard Reforms overview Results from the analysis are encouraging Improvement for 11 out of 14 indicators 50 Critical situations No mechanical reading of the scoreboard Detailed analysis in the country reports

JER - Key messages Labour market and social situation improving… > 235 million persons in employment At risk of poverty or social exclusion rate keeps decreasing Demographic change already biting  Imperative to increase employment rates and productivity

JER - Key messages …but challenges remain Large discrepancies remain across member states Wage growth subdued Employment gains not evenly distributed Large gap between low and high skills (31 pps) Gender employment gap remains sizeable (11.6 pps) Labour market segmentation: Share of temporary workers remains stable (~14%)

Employment Guidelines (EGs) Frame the scope and direction for Member States’ policy coordination and provide the legal basis for Country Specific Recommendations Based on Article 148(2) TFEU The structure of the EGs stays unchanged, ensuring consistency with the Broad Economic Guidelines

Alert Mechanism Report (AMR) 2018 Correction of macroeconomic imbalances continues Since last year, an increased emphasis on the Euro area dimension Persistence of “stock” imbalances – vulnerabilities related to high public and private debt levels Developments in cost competitiveness are becoming less supportive of rebalancing. Large current account surpluses remain in some countries Challenges in the banking sector persist Positive labour market developments, but social distress persists in some countries 12 Member States subject to an In-Depth Review Down from 13 and no new countries identified

Euro area recommendation Recommendation in five parts for the euro area as a whole: Policies to support inclusive growth and remove bottlenecks to investment, support job creation and reduce inequality. Neutral fiscal stance (balance between ensuring the sustainability of public finances and supporting the economic recovery) Promote quality job creation, equal opportunities and access to labour market, fair working conditions, and support social protection and inclusion. Banking Union: risk reduction + risk sharing (European Deposit Insurance Scheme, common backstop for the Single Resolution Fund, strengthening of the European supervisory framework). Make progress on completing the EMU, on the basis of the Commission initiatives of October and December 2017 (upcoming)

Thank you for your attention!

ANNEX

Employment and poverty trends Employment and unemployment levels in EU AROPE sub-components

JER – the Social Scoreboard