1. European Semester: State of Play and what is new
Meeting of the ESF Committee
9 February 2017
Ana Xavier
Employment and social aspects of the European Semester
DG Employment, Social Affairs and Inclusion

2. Economic surveillance cycle
November
Annual Growth Survey
Joint Employment Report
Winter forecast
February
Autumn forecast
Alert Mechanism Report
Euro area recommendations
Fiscal stance communication
Assessment of draft budgetary plans
Country Reports
October
April
Stability/Convergence Programmes National Reform Programmes
Euro Area Member States: Draft Budgetary Plans
Country-Specific Recommendations
Spring forecast
May

3. 2017 Autumn Package Working for a stronger and more inclusive economic recovery
1) Annual Growth Survey 2017
2) Draft Joint Employment Report 2017
3) Alert Mechanism Report 2017
4) Fiscal Stance Communication
5) Euro Area Recommendation 2017

4. European Semester: what is new
Stronger focus on employment and social dimension:
Increased ownership with consultation of authorities and stronger involvement of social partners
Recognition of multiannual dimension of reform implementation
Better integrating the euro area and national dimension

5. 1) Annual Growth Survey

6. 2017 Annual Growth Survey
…virtuous triangle of economic policy… focus on social fairness to deliver more inclusive growth

7. 2017 Annual Growth Survey
Positive developments but recovery still modest and uneven
Monetary, fiscal and structural to strengthen job creation, growth, investment and financial stability
On Investment:
remove barriers to investment, better access to finance, more projects to benefit from Investment Plan
Includes focus on "human capital and social investment"
On Responsible fiscal policies:
support on-going recovery, more efforts towards a positive fiscal stance for the Euro area.

8. On structural reforms: Employment and social priorities
Investment
Human capital
Youth and jobseekers
Social infrastructure, including childcare
Job creation
Equal opportunities
Balance between flexibility and security
Wage setting systems that react to productivity
Effective social dialogue
Enhancing skills
Focus on labour market relevance of skills
Modernise education and training systems
New Skills Agenda for Europe
Social policy as productive factor
Labour market participation and employment security
Adequate income support and quality social services
Pension and health reforms

9. 2) Draft Joint Employment Report

10. JER - Key messages Labour market and social situation improving
8 million new jobs since 2013
Employment rate reached 71.1%
EU unemployment rate down to 8.5% - 10% in euro area (now below 10% also in the euro area
Risk-of poverty or social exclusion decreasing but high
Absolute poverty (SMD) down: 9.1 million people less than peak
Promoting job creation remains a priority
4 million unemployed youth and 10 million LTU
Tax wedge on labour high (low-earners and second earners)
Align wage developments to productivity (explicitly including also upward adjustments)

11. Employment and poverty trends
Employment levels for EU and Euro area (20-64)
At-risk-of-poverty and social exclusion rate in the EU

12. JER - Key messages (cntd)
Important reform progress
Reforms supporting resilient and inclusive labour markets must continue
Better balance flexibility and security
Implement YG and YEI
Enhance PES and coordination between agencies
Stimulate labour market participation notably for women, persons with disabilities, low-skilled
Reduce tax wedge notably of low- and second-earners
5 novembre 2014
Name, surname – EMPL C1

13. JER - Key messages (cntd)
Social protection systems must be modernised
119 million people at risk of poverty and social exclusion – including children (25 million)
High inequality levels: challenge to growth and social fairness
Improve coverage and adequacy of benefits while promoting activation
Improve cost-effectiveness
Investing in labour supply and skills essential
For both youth and adults
Align with labour market needs
Addressing inequalities in access

14. JER - Key messages (cntd)
Effective social dialogue is key
Ensuring fair and efficient reforms
Involvement of Social Partners uneven
Inflow of refugees: an integration challenge
Early intervention, skills assessment and recognition,
Followed by language skills, education and training
Comprehensive integration into the labour market and society – take medium to long-term perspective
5 novembre 2014
Name, surname – EMPL C1

15. 3) Alert Mechanism Report, communication on fiscal stance & Euro Area recommendation

16. Alert Mechanism Report (AMR) 2017
Correction of macroeconomic imbalances continues
Increased emphasis on the Euro area dimension
External deficits and debt levels doing down;
Private debt reducing but slow and uneven pace
Large current account surpluses remain in some countries
Challenges in the banking sector persist
Positive labour market developments, but social distress persists in some countries
13 Member States subject to an In-Depth Review
Down from 19 and no new countries identified

18. 4) Communication on Fiscal Stance

19. Communication on Fiscal Stance
Towards a positive fiscal stance for the Euro Area
Fiscal expansion in 2017 of up to 0.5% of GDP
at the level of the euro area
First time ever an Euro area fiscal direction
To support reforms and strengthen the recovery.
As overall expansionary direction but also in the composition of the fiscal adjustment.
Different national efforts, depending on fiscal space of the Member State
Objective remains long term fiscal sustainability and macroeconomic stabilisation.

20. 5) Euro area recommendations

21. Euro area recommendations
Recommendation in five parts for the euro area as a whole:
Policies to support growth and investment and remove bottlenecks to investment and job creation
Positive fiscal stance
Job creation, social fairness and convergence; reduce labour taxation
Agree on European Deposit Insurance Scheme, start work on the common backstop for the Single Resolution Fund; address risks to viability of banking sector; promote deleveraging of private debt.
Accelerate completion of EMU, including remaining actions under stage 1 of Five Presidents' Report

22. Next Steps
Winter Package - February: publication of 2017 Country Reports and chapeau communication
Spring Package - May: Country-Specific Recommendations issued and chapeau communication

23. 2016 CSRs per policy area in numbers

24. Thank you for your attention!