NS4960 Spring Term 2018 Climate Change, Energy and Security Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Strong Dollar Weak Dollar

Overview Uncertainty? Scientific consensus about trend, but uncertainty about speed and tempo Type of security concerns? Adaptation Consequence management Policy responses Implications for energy security

Climate Change I Little uncertainty over the direction of change Statistical analysis of data on climate Some uncertainty over speed of change Wide variety of sources and models on data Intended for scientific purposes, not for forecasting or to help politicians make decisions Lots of uncertainty over when catastrophic events will occur

Climate Change II Scientific consensus is that fossil fuel use, particularly coal and oil used in power and transportation is a major contributor to climate change Major policy prescription is to reduce the impact: Reduce use of fossil fuels Increase efficiency of use of fossil fuels Decrease the byproducts of fossil fuel use theorized to contribute to climate change Implications for energy security are mixed.

Climate Change III

Climate Change IV

Climate Change V Types of Climate Change Issues Not just data in temperatures Ocean chemistry and impact on bio systems Decline in polar icecaps Increase in number and duration of droughts Increased frequency of extreme weather events Concern over rate of change and potential for acceleration Short-term challenges of responding to sudden changes Long term challenges of adaptation

Climate Change VI Consequence management concerns Extreme climate events shift roles for defense forces Military support to civilian authorities role becomes more important? Consequential for budgets, planning and programs? Consequential for forces most exposed to consequences of climate change International emergency response and relief roles become more prominent?

Climate Change VII Adaptation support Human security Governance Food and water Health Energy Human security Migration Armed conflict Governance State viability Economic viability

Climate Change VIII Five Climate Threats, Top 12 Most Vulnerable Countries

Climate Change IX Projected Temperature Increase in Africa 2040, 2090

Climate Change X Areas of Physical and Economic Water Scarcity

Climate Change XI Dependence on Inflows/Water Transfers

Climate Change XII

Climate Change XIII Role of environmental policy Case of both market failure and government failure So what should government focus on? Provide accurate information about national-level costs of climate change Internalizing costs of climate change in economy so that producers and end users get prices right Establish simple rules of the game Getting risk allocation in rules of the game right

Climate Change XIV Policy Tools Internalize climate change costs Create markets Regulate sources Market facilitation (information) Stimulate technological development Ease economic adaptation Pursue international coordinated response

Climate Change XV Defense Science Board 2011 Recommendations White House Office of Science and Technology Policy Identify gaps in climate data Encourage efforts to relate scientific data on climate to societal impact outcomes NOAA/NSA Low cost/high reliability launch vehicles for civilian science/climate observations DNI Climate change>human security>national security? Develop indicators

Climate Change XVI Defense Science Board 2011 Recommendations (contd.) Coordinate whole of government approach DoD Continued focus on military support for civilian authorities (MSCA) and emergence response to catastrophic weather Adapt security cooperation efforts to include climate issues, especially water Enhance partner resilience Conflict/avoidance/shaping efforts Focus on Africa as region at high risk Littoral risk assessment and adaptation

Climate Change XVII Implications for energy security Core policy is to reduce use of fusil fuels and associated emissions Benefits to energy security Greater focus on efficiency Switch to cleaner burning natural gas abundant in North America More regionally focused economy (North America and Western Hemisphere) where security risks are lower Cons for security in general

Climate Change XVIII Final Thoughts Already successful states Cost to address/mitigate climate change Competition for capital with other states Magnets for mitigation Looked to for aid and disaster response Less developed states Varying impact of climate change Poor governance increases risks Lower ability to adapt especially in agricultural economies Trans nationalization of conflicts over water, resources Less able to manage uncertainty?