WMO update WMO/UN WMO Reform Status of climate & disasters Prof. Petteri Taalas Secretary-General

WMO contributions to the SDGs

Reforms at the WMO Secretariat Culture of common responsibility in provision of services for the Members New leadership of WMO: seven directors and several chiefs Voluntary separation/early retirement program was carried out to release fresh resources for meeting new challenges Result based management & numerical indicators for implementation of the WMO strategy Reforms at all departments (structures & working practices) for efficiency gains Reform of WMO administrative activities: savings, better in-house services, transparency

WMO Strategic Operating Plan Objectives of CBR WMO EC-70 Geneva, 20-29 June 2018

Illustrative monitoring indictors Goal 1 - Better serve societal needs: delivering, authoritative, accessible, user-oriented and fit-for-purpose information and services Strategic objective Illustrative monitoring indictors 1.1 Strengthen national multi-hazard early warning/alert systems to extend reach and better enable effective decision response to the associated risks 1.1.1 Number of Members participating in a global alert system 1.1.2 Number of Members using the Common Alerting Protocol (CAP) in communication of warnings/alerts 1.1.3 Number of Members with a MHEWS integrated in a national DRR management system 1.1.4 Number of Members cataloguing high impact weather, weather and climate events using WMO standard unique identifiers 1.2 Broaden the provision of policy- and decision-supporting climate information and services at all levels 1.2.1 Number of Members with basic, essential, full and advanced climate services provision capacity 1.2.2 Number of Members with NMHSs contributing to climate-relevant outputs (NAPs, NDCs, mitigation/adaptation projects) through national, multi-stakeholder mechanisms (e.g. National Frameworks for Climate Services) 1.2.3 Demonstrated impact of WMO climate-related flagship products 1.3 Further develop services in support of sustainable water management 1.3.1 Number of Members participating in WMO Global Hydrological Status and Outlook System 1.3.2 Number of Members with operational flood forecasting and warning services 1.3.3 Number of Members with operational drought warning system 1.3.4 Number of Members with improved integrated hydro/met/climate operational capabilities 1.4 Enhance and innovate the provision of value-added, decision-supporting weather information and services 1.4.1 Number of Members with QMS for selected services (aviation, marine, EWS) 1.4.2 Number of Members with socioeconomic benefit analysis conducted in the past five years 1.4.3 Number of Members with established public/private/academia engagement on: (a) service delivery and (b) maintenance of networks 1.4.4 Number of Members using (a) web applications and (b) social media in service delivery

Partnerships for enhanced global impact of WMO New partnership/alliance agreements with World Bank, Green Climate Fund, European Commission and UNDP to promote climate adaptation and to target several billion USD scale investments in climate adaptation and national weather, climate and water services WMO has also enhanced co-operation with the national development agencies of USA, UK, France, Japan, Canada, China, South Korea, Norway, Sweden and Netherlands New partnership agreements have been signed with FAO, WHO and UNFCCC to improve agriculture, air quality and health services, to support climate mitigation and to enhance global greenhouse gas monitoring. Also ICAO, IMO, ITU. WMO SG was selected as a UN Climate Principal by SG Guterres, WMO is advising the UNSG on climate matters

Improvement of the global status of WMO WMO has enhanced its visibility in media and at several international events as a climate, disaster and water resource management organization The annual state of the climate, disasters and greenhouse gas reports have gained very high visibility globally. Also the recent 1.5 C report of IPCC and WMO was very widely recognized. Typically attention of up to one billion readers/viewers have been reached as follow up of WMO press conferences. WMO has began provision of early warning services of high impact weather, seasonal predictions and El Nino/La Nina variability for UN agencies as a part of the UNOCC centre at the UN Headquarters (storms, flooding, heat waves, and drought). Those services help humanitarian agencies to act proactively rather than after a disaster. WMO has played an active role in the Arctic Council after reaching an observer status in 2017

Better services for 191 Members About half of the WMO Members are lacking of state of the art weather, climate and water services A country profile database has been developed to monitor the status of Members and to target development resources WMO supports the Members in strategic planning and interacts with governments, ministers, heads of states to enhance the efficiency of national meteorological and hydrological services WMO promotes development of national and regional centers of excellence and exchange of know-how and twinning between advanced and developing national agencies WMO promotes coordinated co-operation between public and private sector actors in weather services and observations WMO is establishing a global early warning system based on already existing European Meteoalarm system

Innovativeness of 52 UN agencies & bodies WMO

Additional financial needs for 2020-23 Private sector engagement staffing & meeting resources Urban services: air quality, disasters, climate adaptation Engagement of hydrological and scientific communities in WMO activities Global Meteoalarm implementation Early warning services for international organizations

Additional financial needs for 2020-23 6. Strengthening of regional development and collaboration activities 7. Management training for the PRs 8. Enhanced global greenhouse gas budget monitoring 9. Country database 10. Data “revolution”; interpretation of Resolution 40

WMO REFORM: WMO of 21st Century? Climate change, disasters and (lack of) water resources very high on the global agenda, need for climate adaptation and the expertise of NMHSs is growing Demand for WMO expertise has grown among development agencies and other UN agencies, like World Bank, Green Climate Fund, EU, FAO, WHO, UNFCCC & OCHA Cross-cutting and holistic approach is favoured instead of silos in weather, climate and water communities, need for data. Multi-hazard and impact based services expected ~150 Members/PRs not well engaged in WMO Overall UN reform under way

Constituent Body Reform, WMO of 21st Century 1873 2050

Objectives of CBR Congress-17 decision 2015 WMO EC-70 “Congress requested the Executive Council to provide recommendations to the Eighteenth Congress on constituent body constructs, as appropriate, including possible new structures for TCs, RAs, EC, and also to provide recommendations on rules, procedures, processes, working mechanisms, and duties, of constituent bodies, WMO Officers (President, vice- presidents, PRAs and PTCs) and the relationship between them and the WMO Secretariat to enhance the efficiency and effectiveness of the Organization and good governance.” REFORM IS NOT A MATTER OF WILL, IT IS A MUST EC/Member driven process, Secretariat as facilitator WMO EC-70 Geneva, 20-29 June 2018

Objectives of CB Reform Effectiveness and efficiency Seamless integrated approach (spatial, temporal): Earth System approach WMO acting as one Wider engagement of Members & national experts Agility to uptake new challenges and tasks Improved collaboration with partners WMO EC-70 Geneva, 20-29 June 2018

Alignment of WMO Structure Policy, coordination, integration, foresight Strategic Plan Global lead/regional expertise Technical Coordination Committee Policy Advisory Committee Long-Term Goal 5: Governance Long-Term Goal 1: Services Commission for Services Long-Term Goal 2: Systems Commission for Infrastructures Joint WMO-IOC Committee for Oceanography and Meteorology Long-Term Goal 3: Science Research Board Scientific Advisory Panel Long-Term Goal 4: Capacity Regional Associations E-70C Recommendations to Congress Established by EC-70

An enhanced role for Regional Associations Congress / EC Scientific and technical communities Political and economic regional groups Regional requirements, needs and priorities Technical solutions Standards, guidance TECHNICAL COMMISSIONS National/regional experts REGIONAL ASSOCIATIONS Expertise, assistance, efficiency, innovation Implementation Process

Capacity development as a top priority Increase engagement of all WMO Members to address national, regional and global development needs Increase speed, agility and added-value in supporting Members to provide information and services that respond to national and regional emerging challenges Enhance contribution and visibility to the global agenda

Enhanced collaboration with partners Joint bodies Working arrangements Programmes/Projects More interaction and collaboration with partners from all relevant areas, e.g.:

New Technical Commission structures Work driven by WMO strategy, progress followed by the Executive Council and the Congress President + (up to) three Vice-Presidents Standing Committees (also joint with partners) Conjoint sessions 2-year cycle of session of constituent bodies Expert groups/Study groups Regional Associations engaged in nomination process Common procedures – Procedural Handbook Better engagement of experts from academia and private sector

CBR-TF: Standing Committees Infrastructure Commission Earth observing systems and measurement networks Methods of observations, measurements and instrumentation Data, products and information exchange and life cycle management Data processing for applied Earth system modelling and prediction

CBR-TF: Standing Committees Service Commission Aeronautical meteorological services Marine and oceanographic meteorological services Agrometeorological and climatological services Hydrological services Public services and disaster risk reduction (noting Members’ sovereignty on warnings)

Techical commission structures Management Team Normative Work Exploratory Work Standing Committee Standing Committee Standing Committee Study Group Study Group Expert Team Expert Team Expert Team Expert Team Expert Team Expert Team Expert Network

Benefits to Members The work of constituent bodies more closely driven by regional and national priorities Possibility to engage much larger amount of Members in WMO activities 2-year cycle strengthens the opportunity to contribute Increasing influence with international institutions, development and funding agencies Holistic Earth System observations and seamless multi-hazard approaches Greater efficiency, effectiveness and agility

What’s next? Kick-off of new TCs APPROVAL of CBR 2018 2019 2020 Finalization of proposals, work on details, mapping, communication, formation of Communities of Practice (CoP) Establishing of structures, work programmes, preparation of first session Kick-off of new TCs APPROVAL of CBR 2018 2019 2020

Expert Teams/Task Teams/Working Groups/etc; by commission Includes Working Groups and Management Groups (no Focal Points) It doesn’t include PUB5 Experts (president, vice-president,…) < 270 teams in total, many of them with (partly) overlapping mandates, terms of reference and membership; 3601 Experts in total, 2373 unique names; 75 pairs of teams have 4 or more experts in common; 125 pairs have 3 or more;

TC expert distribution by Member United States of America 323 United Kingdom 118 China 111 Germany 109 Australia 108 Japan 93 France 93 Canada 80 Republic of Korea 69 Russian Federation 57 Half the experts are provided by 10 Members More than one third (66) of the WMO Members have no experts participating in TC work Almost half the WMO Members (87) have one or fewer participating experts

Private sector engagement Besides infrastructures (obs & IT) private sector provides services and observations WMO is supposed to serve the interests of the governments including private sector Private sector inside/outside of WMO? Decision making will remain in the hands of PRs, but private sector initiatives/perspectives could be heard at constituent bodies Support for national level legal basis for PPE The backbone of global observing system remains to be financed by public sector; also the interest of private sector

Weather risks are the top economic risks World Economic Forum, Davos - Global Risk Landscape 2018 Extreme weather events Natural disasters Failure of climate-change mitigation and adaptation Source: World Economic Forum (2018)

Distribution on natural disasters 1998-2017 90.6 % weather related

~4.5 billion people affected 1998-2017 96 % weather related

Warming so far - - Spatial and seasonal pattern of present-day warming: Regional warming for the 2006–2015 decade relative to 1850–1900 for the annual mean (top), the average of December, January and February (bottom left) and for June, July and August (bottom right). Warming is evaluated by regressing regional changes in the (Cowtan and Way, 2014) dataset onto the total (combined human and natural) externally-forced warming (yellow line in Figure 1.2). See Supplementary Material 1.SM for further details and versions using alternative datasets. The definition of regions (green boxes and labels in top panel) is adopted from the AR5 (Christensen et al., 2013).

Global precipitation 1986–2015 vs. 1901–1960 2017 has been a cooler year than the record-setting 2016, with 1.1°C above 1880-1900 (pre-industrial), 2017 sits among top 3 warmest years on record: 2015, 2016, 2017

Uneven economic impact of current warming Effect of 1°C temperature increase on per capita output The International Monetary Fund (IMF) World Economic Outlook published in October 2017 indicates that increases in countries’ temperature have uneven macroeconomic effects. Adverse consequences are concentrated in countries with relatively hot climates, such as most low-income countries. in countries with hot climates an increase in temperature reduces per capita output, in both the short and medium term, by reducing agricultural output, suppressing the productivity of workers exposed to heat, slowing investment, and damaging health. For the median low-income developing country, with annual average temperature conditions around 25°C, a 1°C increase in temperature could lower per capita economic output by about 1.2 percent. Even though countries whose economies are projected to be significantly adversely affected by an increase in temperature produced only about one-fifth of global GDP in 2016, they are home to close to 60% of current global population and to more than 75% of the global population projected for the end of the century. GDP Change % Source: International Monetary Fund (IMF) World Economic Outlook

Carbon dioxide level highest in 3 million years CO2 CH4 N2O Increase 146 % Lifetime several thousands years Contribution to warming 66 % Increase 257 % Lifetime 12 years Contribution to warming 17 % Increase 122% Lifetime 114 years Contribution to warming 6 %

Global CO2 emissions by country Emissions from OECD countries are about the same as in 1990 Emissions from non-OECD countries have increased rapidly in the last decade Source: CDIAC; Le Quéré et al 2017; Global Carbon Budget 2017

3 C warming is a major risk for global food security Loss of crop yield in most parts of the world

Population in low elevation coastal zones 2060 projections Source: Neumann, Vafeidis, Zimmermann, Nicholls 2015

Source: BP 2017; Jackson et al 2017; Global Carbon Budget 2017 Today 85 % of energy fossil, should be replaced with renewable, hydro and nuclear during coming decades Energy consumption by fuel source from 2000 to 2016, with growth rates indicated for the more recent period of 2011 to 2016 Source: BP 2017; Jackson et al 2017; Global Carbon Budget 2017

شكر Thank you Gracias Merci Спасибо 谢谢