Hydrological Forecasting Service

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Presentation transcript:

Hydrological Forecasting Service in the Czech Republic during flood in June 2013 Tomas Vlasak

Division of Meteorology & Climatology Central Forecasting Office Meteorological Forecasting Dept. Hydrological Forecasting Dept. Field Hydrology Gauge Maintenance Applied Research Dept. MFD HFD Regional Forecasting Offices Division of Hydrology Regional Offices

Flood in June 2013 CAUSE: low pressure formation travelling from the Mediterranean to the north east across central Europe very intensive rain (> 100mm /24h) in narrow strip with lots of storms high soil saturation RESULT: 100-year flood exceeded in 12 hydrological sites 15 casualties 550 000 000 EUR economic losses Reccurence interval for hydrological response 24h rainfal [mm]

strong underestimation of QPF Flood in June 2013 strong underestimation of QPF missing signal of rainfall extremity (available NWM, precipitation ensembles) QPF 24-hours sum (0 to 24h) lead time observed 24h rainfall sum

Flood in June 2013 underestimation of rainfall-runoff model

Flood in June 2013 underestimation of the rainfall-runoff model better results in large-scale water basins with longer travel time of water

Satisfying lead-time of the first flood warning Flood in June 2013 Satisfying lead-time of the first flood warning Strong underestimation of flood severity Flooding released 2.6. 00:30) Flood warning released 31.5. 21:00) Flood watch (released 31.5. 21:00) Flood watch (released 30.5. 15:00)

Thank you for your attention

Flood risk x flood hazard flood occurrence probability of 3rd flood stage (flooding)