Brexit: Threats, Challenges & Opportunities Dan O’Brien Chief Economist Institute of International and European Affairs.

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Presentation transcript:

Brexit: Threats, Challenges & Opportunities Dan O’Brien Chief Economist Institute of International and European Affairs

Contents EU-UK trade and the UK economy Irish economy issues Scenarios for March 29 2018 Challenges and threats Opportunities

The UK economy: Trade and economic growth

Britain’s position is fundamentally weak

Britain’s economy has been resilient

Irish economy issues

Credit is not driving the economy

Construction: residential is still on the floor

The economy is doing well, but we’re not back to pre-2008 times

Employment growth has been strong

Employment is faltering in border region

Three major risks Hard Brexit US-EU trade war Italy goes Greek

Brexit scenarios

Four scenarios for March 29 2018 No Brexit (15% probability) A substantially different deal (2% probability) Current draft deal (15% probability) No deal Brexit (68pc probability)

Brexit implications

Political and geopolitical consequences Europe/EU/UK has less global influence EU is less transatlantic Europe is weaker vis a vis Russia EU is more German-centred

Economic and financial consequences Europe/EU/UK has less global influence Europe is a less attractive place to invest EU less liberal internally Less intra-European trade FDI disruption/relocation

Ireland-specific implications Northern Ireland Exports Imports

Import risk is under-appreciated

Brexit opportunities

Brexit opportunities for Britain ?

Brexit opportunities for others UK has the largest stock of FDI in the EU

dan.obrien@iiea.com Twitter @danobrien20 Thank you. dan.obrien@iiea.com Twitter @danobrien20