1. DIRECTORATE GENERAL FOR INTERNAL POLICIES
CONSTITUTIONAL AFFAIRS
The Institutional Consequences of a ‘Hard Brexit’

2. Introduction Hypothesis: ‘Hard Brexit’ - No withdrawal agreement
- No transition
- No framework for future relations
Unlikely but not impossible
- Northern Irish question

3. Structure Institutional implications Budgetary implications
Policy implications
Conclusions

4. 1) Institutional implications
EU institutions: ‘Hard Brexit’ = Brexit
European Council
Council
Commission
Parliament
Court of Justice
Central Bank
Immediate effect
Until end of mandate
No effect

5. 2) Budgetary implications
EU budget: ‘Hard Brexit’ -> major challenge for budget 2019 & 2020
But from a legal viewpoint: UK has already accepted obligation to pay
-> good faith under international law
Difficulties due to lack of mandatory adjudication forum and enforcement

6. 3) Policy implications
EU policy: ‘Hard Brexit’ -> major changes particularly in fields:
a) Commerce & trade
No more free movement + WTO
b) Security & Justice
No more AFSJ cooperation + CoE
Particular challenges for Ireland

7. Conclusion ‘Hard Brexit’ = negative scenario
Implications: limited for EU institutions but major for EU budget and policies
Possible contingency measures:
GATT Art. XXIV(3) -> customs
Intergov’t cooperation -> security
But risks and legal limitations

8. Presentation by Federico FABBRINI Full Professor of EU Law & Director,
Brexit Institute – Dublin City University
Policy Department Citizens’ Rights and Constitutional Affairs
Responsible Administrator: Eeva ERIKSSON