Generating and Using Data for Poverty Reduction Strategies Neil Fantom, Development Data Group

What data are needed to: Analyze and understand poverty? Monitor economic growth? Determine the location of new schools and monitor their performance? Design health care policy?

In the countries you work with: What statistical data are needed for managing and monitoring the PRS? Are statistical data available to meet those needs? What data quality attribute is most important? Accuracy Timeliness Frequency Relevance Comparability Accessibility What is most expensive?

Some points Data needs can be broad Madagascar PRSP: GDP, poverty, family size, malaria, agriculture, crime and security, investment, education, health, transport, water, public finance, sanitation… Need indicators, but more than indicators Need data to understand policy choices and manage service delivery More than surveys Use of administrative data is very important e.g. in education, health, crime & justice, etc.

Data Sources: Surveys and Censuses

Censuses Fundamental statistical baseline, especially in countries with limited vital registration systems Common problems: Censuses are expensive and infrequent, so funding is often problematic Censuses are often highly political Long delays between data collection and release of results Give “point in time” estimates only Inter-censal estimates, including at sub-national levels, are important as well but often inaccurate (e.g. because of poor birth, mortality and migration estimates) Commonly under-count (the issue is by how much)

Household Surveys Key data source, both for indicators (like poverty incidence), and for research and analysis A lot of HH survey data in many developing countries come from just a few internationally-sponsored surveys DHS, MICS, LSMS, CWIQ Common problems: Relatively infrequent Relatively expensive Over-reliance on donor funding Large sample sizes needed for geographical disaggregation Incoherence over time and between surveys Inaccessible or under-utilized data

Household survey coverage: IDA countries in Africa 2000-2004 “Poverty” surveys Health surveys 62 % of population 97 % of population  Available  Not conducted /unavailable  Non-IDA country

Measuring access to improved water sources in Ghana Lack of comparability Measuring access to improved water sources in Ghana CWIQ 2003 CENSUS 2000 GLSS 1998 DHS 2003

Measuring access to improved water sources in Ghana Lack of comparability Measuring access to improved water sources in Ghana Difficult to create a series on access to a protected well from these surveys CWIQ 2003 CENSUS 2000 GLSS 1998 DHS 2003

Data sources: Administrative Systems

Data sources: Administrative Systems Source of many key indicators that are often relevant to PRSPs Where systems exist, often easy and cheap to harvest frequent data that can be disaggregated Examples: disease prevalence; educational enrolment and completion; trade; crime and justice; migration; transport The common problems: Data may not be precisely what is needed Data weaknesses are inherited from weaknesses in administrative systems (inaccurate, not timely..) Usually part of a line ministry system; not easy for statistics office to influence

National statistical agencies

National statistical agencies Have mandate and basic institutional capacity to collect and disseminate statistics across public sector Provide coordination and standards-setting function The common problems: Basic capacity may be poor, often under funded by government or heavily reliant on donors Often remote from policy discussion Linkage to, and influence over, statistics produced by line ministries may be very weak

National statistical systems Different models in different countries Oversight/governance Independent commissions or Boards Political oversight by government or parliament Status of central statistical authority Statistical legislation May be centralized or decentralized (most countries are a mixture) Geographically e.g. statistical offices of national statistical office at sub-national levels Sectorally e.g. statistical functions within line ministries directly controlled by national statistical agency

Centralized or decentralized?

Build institutional capacity to produce good statistics Basis should be a coherent and comprehensive improvement strategy: most importantly, based on user needs Institutional change and reform is often crucial Need to invest in: “Physical” infrastructure and “statistical” infrastructure Human capacity Statistical methods Information technology Improving data access Beware: donor investments in data and statistics are not always “system-building”

A Frequently Asked Question: What is a good statistics strategy? Integrated into national development policy Developed in an inclusive way, with stakeholder consultation Basis for sustained improvement in statistics that are “fit for purpose” Contains assessment of current situation Has plan for how statistics should be developed (From PARIS21, www.paris21.org)

Checklist from PARIS21

Case study 1. Nigeria Baseline at end of 1990s: Key turning points: Statistics “atrocious”; Federal Bureau of Statistics “in decay” Weak coordination between many under-funded data collection agencies Lack of interest by government, low productivity of staff Data often stale, integrity of data in question Key turning points: Statistical Master Plan for Federal Office of Statistics (FOS), 2003 National Economic Empowerment and Development Strategy – NEEDS – emphasizes statistics New Statistics Bill: National Bureau of Statistics formed from FOS and National Databank. Results in major overhaul and financial support from government and donors

Case study 2. Kenya Baseline at end of 1990s: Key turning points: Statistics “poor and in decline” System supported by donor-sponsored surveys, slow publication of results Major weaknesses in key datasets e.g. external trade, education, national accounts High turnover of senior management Key turning points: Strategic Plan for reform of Central Bureau of Statistics in 2003; new management and IMF General Data Dissemination System played key role Key reforms: Statistics Act, NBS now autonomous with a Board of Directors, increase in recurrent funding Attracted donor support, significant improvements made by 2005 (dissemination, survey program)

Some messages from the case studies Capacity building processes are more successful when: Political environments are favorable Demands are articulated in PRSPs Statistical leadership is responsive Statistical planning process promotes: Better donor collaboration Increased funding Countries have made use of improved ICT For production and dissemination/accessibility

Support available (1) TFSCB STATCAP ADP Trust Fund for Statistical Capacity Building, small grants up to $400,000 (over 80 projects supported) STATCAP Lending program for statistical investment projects Approved: Burkina Faso ($10m), Ukraine (32m), Russia ($10m), Kenya ($20m), Tajikistan ($1m) Pipeline: Mongolia, Bolivia, Tanzania, India (DPL), Indonesia ADP Accelerated Data Program, for documentation and improvement of household surveys

Support available (2) Statistical Capacity Assessment Training On line database maintained by DEC Other tools, including IMF Data ROSC frameworks Training New on-line course being developed Documents PARIS21 e.g. “Developing a Policy-Based NSDS” at www.paris21.org … and of course DECDG staff, and experienced statistics TTLs

A New Initiative: Statistics for Results Facility Response to need to do more, in more countries To help raise funds for improving statistics at national level Based on notion of “sector-wide” statistics plan targeted at PRS i.e. implementation plan for NSDS discussed and agreed by country-level partnership group (using PRS M&E processes if practical) Finance through central fund New $140m multi-donor Trust Fund to provide resources to meet funding shortfalls Pilot phase Possible countries are Ghana, Mozambique, Niger, Afghanistan, Ethiopia, Cambodia…

The ICP and PPPs What you can do Raise statistical capacity weaknesses in policy dialogue Incorporate statistical capacity improvement plans in strategic planning processes, particularly PRSs Support realistic and prioritized plans for improving statistics Support data collection activities which help build country systems

Intranet keyword: DATA then “Statistical Development and Partnership” Web: www.worldbank.org/data then “Statistical Capacity Building”

Discussion points In the field, what surveys are most useful? What are data needs at regional and local levels? What is experience of NSDS, and getting results in terms of better data for PRSPs?