Food Security Update & Outlook

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Presentation transcript:

Food Security Update & Outlook 26 October 2016

Zimbabwe National Annual Cereal Deficit April 2016 to March 2017 Projections vary by agency Need for standardized and harmonized projections to assist in well-informed planning

Formal Maize Imports April to August 2016 (ZIMRA) August ‘16 imports increased by 50% from July; 147% higher than August ‘17 (41,000 MT) Apr-Aug ‘16 imports are 52% above same period last year (225,000 MT) Apr-Aug ’16 imports: 51% from international sources

Maize Grain Importation: Issues Zambian export ban Tanzanian uncertainty Higher import parity prices for international grain Logistics & security Delays in international telegraphic transfers?? Uncertainties in the economy

Cereal Availability – Local markets Maize on most markets is currently from local sources Main source areas: Mash W, Gokwe S & other localized areas Supplies rapidly depleting “Distress sales” & local millers also source of grain Maize meal readily available in most areas

Cereal (maize grain & maize meal) prices Maize grain prices generally stable. Higher than 5-yr ave, e.g. 13% for FEWS NET sites (Sept) Maize meal prices also stable across the country. Similar to 5-yr ave Reasons: significant humanitarian assistance, poor liquidity, poor HH incomes, GMB subsidies, deflation, competitive m/meal sector Projections Nov ‘16 - March ’17 – stable, marginal increases; uncertainty increasing

Southern Africa Maize Current Prices

Sn Africa Maize, % Change from 2015 Prices

Sn Africa Maize, % Change from 5yr Ave Prices (2011-2015)

Zimbabwe – maize prices for selected markets

Maize grain price projections, Binga and Buhera

FEWS NET Assumptions: Oct 2016 – May 2017 2015-16 production and 2016-17 imports 2016-17 rainfall and agric. seasonal forecasts Macro-economic conditions Maize grain & maize meal price projections Agric & non-agric labor availability & rates Livestock condition & prices Remittances Access to inputs Humanitarian assistance Acute malnutrition

FEWS NET IPC Phase Classification (coming soon) October 2016 - January 2017 February – May 2017