Global Outlook—Supply & Demand for Wood Products

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Presentation transcript:

Global Outlook—Supply & Demand for Wood Products By Ed Pepke Forest Products Marketing Specialist Food and Agricultural Organization UN Economic Commission for Europe Geneva, Switzerland

Content World production and consumption Regional analysis Sector analysis Forecasts Forests resources UNECE Timber Committee statements Solution options

Sources of info UNECE/FAO TIMBER database (forest products statistics) Temperate and Boreal Forest Resources Assessment FAO Global Forest Products Outlook Study FAO Global Forest Resources Assessment FAOSTAT Forestry Database website UNECE/FAO Timber Bulletins Timber Committee market statements

Forest products

World production of roundwood 1961-2001 Source: FAOSTAT

Regional production of industrial roundwood, 1961-2010 Source: FAOSTAT and FAO Global Forest Products Outlook Study

Regional trade, all forest products, 1999 Source: FAOSTAT

American lumber consumption & production, 1980-2010 Source: FAO Global Forest Products Outlook Study

American lumber trade, 1980-2010 Source: FAO Global Forest Products Outlook Study

Europe lumber consumption & production outlook Source: FAO Global Forest Products Outlook Study

Europe lumber trade outlook Source: FAO Global Forest Products Outlook Study

Asia lumber production & consumption outlook Source: FAO Global Forest Products Outlook Study

Asia lumber trade outlook Source: FAO Global Forest Products Outlook Study

America panel consumption & production outlook Source: FAO Global Forest Products Outlook Study

America panel trade outlook Source: FAO Global Forest Products Outlook Study

Europe panel consumption & production outlook Source: FAO Global Forest Products Outlook Study

Europe panel trade outlook Source: FAO Global Forest Products Outlook Study

Asia panel consumption & production outlook Source: FAO Global Forest Products Outlook Study

Asia panel trade outlook Source: FAO Global Forest Products Outlook Study

America paper & paperboard consumption & production outlook Source: FAO Global Forest Products Outlook Study

America paper & paperboard trade outlook Source: FAO Global Forest Products Outlook Study

Europe paper & paperboard consumption & production outlook Source: FAO Global Forest Products Outlook Study

Europe paper & paperboard trade outlook Source: FAO Global Forest Products Outlook Study

Asia paper & paperboard consumption & production outlook Source: FAO Global Forest Products Outlook Study

Asia paper & paperboard trade outlook Source: FAO Global Forest Products Outlook Study

N. American softwood lumber market Source: UNECE Timber Committee forecasts, 9.02

N. American softwood lumber market Source: UNECE Timber Committee forecasts, 9.02

European softwood lumber market Source: UNECE Timber Committee forecasts, 9.02

European softwood lumber market Source: UNECE Timber Committee forecasts, 9.02

Russian softwood lumber market Source: UNECE Timber Committee forecasts, 9.02

Russian softwood lumber market Source: UNECE Timber Committee forecasts, 9.02

N. American hardwood lumber market Source: UNECE Timber Committee forecasts, 9.02

N. American hardwood lumber market Source: UNECE Timber Committee forecasts, 9.02

European hardwood lumber market Source: UNECE Timber Committee forecasts, 9.02

North America panel production Source: UNECE Timber Committee forecasts, 9.02

North American MDF market Source: UNECE Timber Committee forecasts, 9.02

European MDF market Source: UNECE Timber Committee forecasts, 9.02

European particleboard production Source: UNECE Timber Committee forecasts, 9.02

European OSB production Source: UNECE Timber Committee forecasts, 9.02

N. American paper market Source: UNECE Timber Committee forecasts, 9.02

N. American paper market Source: UNECE Timber Committee forecasts, 9.02

European paper market Source: UNECE Timber Committee forecasts, 9.02

European paper market Source: UNECE Timber Committee forecasts, 9.02

Russian paper market Source: UNECE Timber Committee forecasts, 9.02

Russian paper market Source: UNECE Timber Committee forecasts, 9.02

Forest resources

Annual change in forest area, 1990-2000 (million hectares) Wood Raw Materials Annual change in forest area, 1990-2000 (million hectares) Deforestation Increase in forest area Net change in forest area Tropics -14.2 +1.9 -12.3 Non-tropics -0.4 +3.3 +2.9 World -14.6 +5.2 -9.4 Source: FRA 2000, FAO Source: FAO Global Forest Resources Assessment 2000

Annual change in forest area, 1990-2000 Africa N & C America Europe Oceania Asia South America Source: FAO Global Forest Resources Assessment 2000

Forest resources in Europe Only 60% of the wood which grows is harvested Forests increase daily 1 million m3 Forestland increases by 500,000 hectares per year Sources: State of the World’s Forests 2001; Global Forest Resources Assessment 2000; Temperate and Boreal Forest Resources Assessment 2000.

Forest resources: growing stock Million m3 Source:Temperate and Boreal Forest Resources Assessment 2000.

Forest resources: NAI vs. fellings Million m3 Source:Temperate and Boreal Forest Resources Assessment 2000.

Forest resources: NAI vs. fellings Fellings as % of NAI Europe-41 59% EU-15 64% Nordic countries 72% Baltic countries 50% Central & eastern Europe 56% Russia 16% North America 79% Source:Temperate and Boreal Forest Resources Assessment 2000.

Forest resources summary Removals considerably below growth Wide variance in utilisation rates of NAI Growing stock increasing in Europe Oversupply compared to demand for wood Increasing alternative demands on forests

Growing too much wood. Not enough wood products demand Growing too much wood? Not enough wood products demand? What are the solutions?

Grow the wood markets. Guarantee that today’s wood products meet consumers’ needs Develop new products to meet evolving needs Develop new markets for wood products (substitute for non-renewable materials)

How can we grow the wood markets? Through coordinated, international promotion programs Example: the FAO-ECE Forest Communicators Network creates a positive image of the forest and forest industries sector by: networking among members identifying key common messages and concepts building of PR capacity

FAO/UNECE Forest Communicators Network Current network: 120 communicators from 29 countries, representing governments and private sector. Participation open to all sharing common objectives. www.unece.org/trade/timber/pr/pr.htm

Source: UNECE/FAO Forest Products Annual Market Review, 2001-2002 Findings on the market effects of wood promotion from Forest Products Annual Market Review Multi-country wood promotion essential Objective to enlarge wood’s market share Promotional work must be cost justified Analyse decision making of target market Source: UNECE/FAO Forest Products Annual Market Review, 2001-2002

Findings on the market effects of wood promotion from Forest Products Annual Market Review Attitudes influenced by cultural and technical dimensions Credibility is important quality Key elements of promotional work Competence Neutrality Sufficient financial resources

Findings on the market effects of wood promotion from Forest Products Annual Market Review Fund raising a problem in fragmented industry Multi-country promotions must overcome cultural differences Wood promotion is a success story!

2001 Timber Committee Market Statement “In light of the economic downturn in 2001, the Timber Committee stated that it is imperative to develop new products to expand existing markets and to establish new markets to meet consumers’ needs. The Committee reasserted the importance for the forest products industry to work internationally to promote the environmental advantages of the sustainable production of wood.”

2001 TC Market Statement “The Committee discussed the need to increase the wood culture in the UNECE region. Delegates mentioned on-going national and subregional campaigns to promote the use of wood. The Committee suggested coordinating efforts in order to achieve greater success.”

2002 Timber Committee Market Statement “Encouraged countries to work together to achieve the maximum benefits of their promotional efforts. Multi-country promotion of the sound use of wood is important to maintain and increase wood’s market share.”

2002 Timber Committee Market Statement Many effective communication strategies can be shared through collaboration between countries, trade associations and promotional groups These international approaches to wood promotion are important to ensure sustainable markets which are a vital component of sustainable forest management

Questions? Discussion

Ed Pepke Forest Products Marketing Specialist UNECE & FAO Timber Branch 439 Palais des Nations CH-1211 Geneva 10, Switzerland Telephone +41 22 917 2872 Fax +41 22 917 0041 Ed.Pepke@unece.org www.unece.org/trade/timber