1 COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India Mitigating Environmental Emissions from the Urban Transport System Asian Regional Research Programme in Energy, Environment and Climate (ARRPEEC) AsianInstituteofTechnology, Thailand Asian Institute of Technology, Thailand Ram M. Shrestha S.C. Bhattacharya Nazrul Islam N. T. Kim Oanh

AIT COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 2 Cities Covered

AIT COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 3 City Profile

AIT COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 4 Project Network AITAsian Institute of Technology, Thailand DOSTE– Department of Science, Technology and Environment, Vietnam Prof. Nguyen Thien Nhan ERIEnergy Research Institute, China Dr. Zhou Dadi IGIDRIndira Gandhi Institute of Development Research Prof. Jyoti Parikh ITBInstitut Technologi Bandung, Indonesia Dr. Tatang H. Soerawidjaja SATMPSociety for the Advancement of Technology in the Philippines, Philippines Dr. Joy V. Abrenica

AIT COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 5 Study Objectives To analyze the demand for urban transport services and associated energy demand and environmental emissions; To analyze and select the technical options for energy efficiency improvement and mitigation of GHGs and other harmful emissions from the urban transport system; and To identify and rank the barriers to the introduction of selected technical options to mitigate environmental emissions from the urban transport system.

AIT COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 6 Travel Demand, Energy Demand and Associated Environmental Emissions

AIT COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 7 Projection of Travel Demand GDP Growth Rate for BAU Projection (%) Alternative Scenario 1 is 1.5 times BAU GDP growth rate Alternative Scenario 2 is 1.25 times BAU GDP growth rate Alternative Scenario 3 is 0.75 times BAU GDP growth rate Alternative Scenario 4 is 0.5 times BAU GDP growth rate GDP Growth Rate for Alternative Scenarios

AIT COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 8 Demand for Transport Services (p-km): BAU Projection Annual average growth rate of demand for transport services would be in the range of 3.3% (Beijing) to 7.3% (HCMC) during

AIT COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 9 Vehicle share (of the total vehicles) in Bandung and Beijing 2005 Bus 7% Car 26% Trucks 3% 2-Wheeler 64% 2020 Bus 10% Car 29% Trucks 2% 2-Wheeler 59% Bandung Beijing 2005 Bus 1% Car 74% 2-Wheeler 13% Trucks 12% 2020 Bus 0% Trucks 9% 2-Wheeler 7% Car 84%

AIT COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 10 Vehicle share (of the total vehicles) in Delhi and Hangzhou 2005 Car 32% Bus 1% Others 2% Trucks 4% 2-Wheeler 61% 2020 Car 28% 2-Wheeler 66% Bus 0% Trucks 4% Others 2% 2005 Bus 6% Car 50% Trucks 25% 2-Wheeler 19% 2020 Bus 2% Car 87% 2-Wheeler 7% Trucks 4% Delhi Hangzhou

AIT COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 11 Vehicle share (of the total vehicles) in HCMC and Jakarta Wheeler 98% Bus 0% Car 1% Trucks 1% Wheeler 96% Bus 0% Car 3% Trucks 1% 2005 Car 18% Bus 12% Others 1%Trucks 12% 2-Wheeler 57% 2020 Trucks 13% Others 0% Bus 10% Car 16% 2-Wheeler 61% HCMC Jakarta

AIT COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 12 Vehicle share (of the total vehicles) in Manila and Mumbai Manila Mumbai

AIT COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 13 Change in Model Mix ( )

AIT COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 14 Car Ownership in 1998 and 2020 (Units/1000 population) Beijing would have the highest car ownership among the cities (248 in 2020). However, the number would be still less than that in OECD countries.

AIT COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 15 Bus Ownership in 1998 and 2020 (Units/1000 population) Beijing would have the lowest bus ownership during the planning horizon.

AIT COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 16 Two-wheeler Ownership in 1998 and 2020 (Units/1000 population) 2-wheeler ownership would be relatively low in Beijing, Hangzhou and Manila

AIT COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 17 Annual Average Growth Rate of Total Transport Energy Demand ( ): BAU Projection AAGR is above 5% in all Cities

AIT COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 18 Share of CNG in Total Energy Demand in 2005 and 2020 (%) The share of cleaner fuels, i.e. CNG, would increase in the future especially in the Indian cities of Mumbai and Delhi followed by Hangzhou Beijing and Jakarta.

AIT COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 19 Average Annual Growth Rate of CO 2 Emission During (%) Average annual growth rate: in the range of 3.1% (in Jakarta) to 12% (in Manila). Total transport CO 2 emissions from the eight cities: 53.8 million tonnes in 2020.

AIT COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 20 Ratio of CO 2 in 2020 to the Base Year (1998) Emission: BAU Projection

AIT COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 21 Modal Share in CO 2 Emissions in Bandung and Beijing Bandung Beijing Wheelers 32% Trucks 15% Bus 5% Car 48% Wheelers 34% Bus 22% Trucks 11% Car 33% 1998 Bus 11% Car 43% Trucks 43% 2-Wheelers 3% 2020 Bus 2% Trucks 16% 2-Wheelers 16% Car 66%

AIT COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 22 Modal Share in CO 2 Emissions in Delhi and Hangzhou Delhi Hangzhou

AIT COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 23 Modal Share in CO 2 Emissions in HCMC and Jakarta HCMC Jakarta

AIT COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 24 Modal Share in CO 2 Emissions in Manila and Mumbai Manila Mumbai

AIT COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 25 Changes in Modal Share in CO 2 Emission

AIT COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 26 Ratio of Local Pollutants in 2020 to the Base Year (1998) Emission: BAU Projection Among the cities, Mumbai would have the lower ratio due to the higher share of buses, use of CNG and penetration of 4-stroke 2-wheelers. HCMC would have the higher ratio due to the higher share of 2-wheelers.

AIT COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 27 Technical Options for CO 2 Emission Mitigation

AIT COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 28 Technology Options Considered for Emission Mitigation

AIT COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 29 Least Cost CO 2 Mitigation Options ADOAdditive diesel oil

AIT COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 30 Least Cost CO 2 Mitigation Options Contd.. MRTS is cost effective at 20%, 40%, 25% and 40% CO 2 reduction target in Bandung, Beijing, Hangzhou and HCMC respectively.

AIT COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 31 Impact of CO 2 Mitigation Target on Emissions of Local Pollutants Local emission reduction objectives could still be served by focusing on CO 2 emission reductions. In the case of Beijing and Hangzhou, the introduction of efficient diesel car would reduce the emission level of CO, NO x and NMVOC. However, it would increase the emission of TSP. TSP emission in Delhi would be reduced by 13% under 10% CO 2 reduction target. In Mumbai. TSP emission would be reduced 14% to 10%. In the case of Manila, CO emissions would fall by 32% at 10% CO 2 reduction.

AIT COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 32 Selected Technical Options to Mitigate CO 2 Emission Bandung:LPG buses, bio-diesel buses and bio- ethanol buses Beijing:CNG buses, diesel cars and MRTS Delhi:CNG buses, CNG cars and 4-stroke 2-wheelers Jakarta:CNG buses, LPG buses, bio-diesel buses and bio-ethanol buses Hangzhou:CNG buses, diesel cars and MRTS HCMC:MRT, Diesel bus Manila:CNG buses, alco-diesel buses and (coconut methyl ester) CME buses Mumbai:CNG cars, CNG 3-wheelers and BOV 3- wheelers

AIT COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 33 Barriers to the Adoption of Efficient Options

AIT COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 34 Barriers to the Adoption of Efficient Options Barriers varies from: Country to country City to City Technology to Technology Technology specific barriers for each city were identified and the analysis of barriers are carried out using Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP).

AIT COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 35 Barriers to the Adoption of CNG Bus

AIT COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 36 Barriers to the Adoption of Bio-fuel Buses in Manila

AIT COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 37 Barriers to the Adoption of CNG Cars

AIT COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 38 Barriers to the Adoption of MRTS

AIT COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 39 Barriers to the Adoption of 4-Stroke 2-wheelers in Delhi

AIT COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 40 Thank you

AIT COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 41 Additional Information

AIT COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 42 Project Approach Project Development (AIT, NRIs, Regional Experts/Policy Makers) Development of Methodology (AIT) Review of Methodology (NRIs) Country Case Studies (NRIs) Review of Case Studies (AIT) Cross-Country Synthesis (AIT) Publications (AIT, NRIs) Dissemination (NRIs, AIT)

AIT COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 43 Methodology LEAP Model Econometric Model GDP Vehicle Stocks Emission Energy Demand Emission Factor Energy Intensity Utilization, Occupancy Rate Spread Sheet Model Transport Demand (p-km) Population

AIT COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 44 Modal Mix in 2005 and 2020 under the BAU Case, %

AIT COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 45 Structure of the Projected Energy Demand in 2005 and 2020 The share of cleaner fuels, i.e. CNG, would increase in the future especially in the Indian cities of Mumbai and Delhi followed by the Chinese cities of Beijing and Hangzhou.

AIT COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 46 Ratio of Environmental Emission in 2020 to the Base Year Emission CityCO2COSOxNOxTSP Bandung Beijing Delhi Hangzhou NA HCMC NA Jakarta) Manila Mumbai

AIT COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 47 Flow Chart of Methodology Vehicle-Mix Model Costs Candidate Options Vehicle-km by mode Total Cost Vehicular Mix Emission Factor Total Emissions Transport Demand Data Vehicle Penetration Rate Fuel Availability Emission target

AIT COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 48 Least-Cost Vehicle Options Bandung and Jakarta In the base case, the shares of gasoline vehicles in total passenger transport service supplied in both cities would be decreasing while that of additive diesel oil (ADO) and LPG would be increasing At 20% reduction target, LPG and bio-diesel vehicles (car, minibus, truck, and bus), and MRT would be cost effective options to meet the CO 2 reduction target in Bandung. The share of bio-diesel vehicles at 20% target would be 24.6% in In the case of Jakarta, LPG car would be selected at 10% reduction target and bio-diesel vehicles (car, bus, jeep, minibus, bus, pick up and truck) and MRT would be selected at 40% reduction target. The share of bio-diesel vehicles and MRT at 40% reduction target would be 42.6% and 4.8% respectively in 2020 in Jakarta.

AIT COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 49 Least-Cost Vehicle Options Contd.. Beijing and Hangzhou Under Base Case, the shares of gasoline car and diesel buses on total passenger kilometer supplied would increase in both cities. To achieve a reduction of 10% CO 2 emission, gasoline cars needs to be replaced by diesel cars. At higher emission reduction target of 40% for Beijing and 25% for Hangzhou, the share of MRTS would increase substantially. The shares of diesel-buses in total passenger transport service supplied in different years would reduce significantly when the emission reduction target is increased from 30% to 40% for Beijing and 20% to 25% for Hangzhou.

AIT COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 50 Least-Cost Vehicle Options Contd.. Delhi and Mumbai Among the technologies considered, CNG buses would supply highest share of the transport services in passenger-km in Delhi while diesel buses would supply highest share of the transport services in Mumbai. In Delhi, at higher emission reduction target level of 25%, diesel buses would replace the gasoline and diesel cars. In the case of Mumbai, CNG buses would replace diesel buses at the emission reduction target of 5% while at higher emission reduction target of 30% battery operated 3-wheelers (2.5% in 2020) would replace the diesel 3- wheelers.

AIT COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 51 Least-Cost Vehicle Options Contd.. Manila Alco-diesel bus, alco-diesel trucks and cars with catalytic converters would be cost effective technologies at the lower CO 2 emission mitigation target of 5% in Manila. As the emission mitigation target is increased, the share of these three technologies would be increased, while the share of diesel buses and diesel trucks would decrease. At 15% reduction target, 99 % of the trucks would be using alco-diesel in HCMC Vans would be a cost effective technology at lower CO 2 emission reduction target of 3% in HCMC. At the emission reduction target of 3%, van would replace diesel buses. At higher emission reduction targets of 12%, electric 2-wheelers would also be cost effective technology. Its share would be 27% at 12 % CO 2 reduction target

AIT COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 52 Marginal Cost of CO 2 Abatement (MAC), US$/tonne of CO 2 MAC would be relatively high for Manila (178 $/tonne of CO 2 at 5% reduction target) and relatively low for HCMC (0.5 $/tonne of CO 2 at 6% reduction target). The MAC values are relatively low in Beijing, Delhi and Mumbai.

AIT COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 53 Three important Barriers in Beijing and Hangzhou for the Selected Options

AIT COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 54 Three important Barriers in Delhi and Mumbai for the Selected Options

AIT COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 55 Three important Barriers in HCMC for the Selected Options

AIT COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 56 Three important Barriers in Manila for the Selected Options