vkm in transport modelling Marek Šturc European Commission DG Climate Action Directorate A: International & Climate Strategy Unit A4: Strategy & Economic Assessment

TREMOVE model transport model for policy assessment including passenger and freight transport covers the period 1995-2030 EU27 + Croatia, Norway, Switzerland, Turkey assess environmental and economic effects http://www.tremove.org/ TREMOVE is not a transport demand model TREMOVE is not a transport network model

When do we use TREMOVE? CO2 in cars Regulation (130 gCO2/km) CO2 in vans proposal for Regulation emissions standards (EURO VI for HDV) taxation policies (Energy Taxation Directive) road pricing (“Eurovignette” Directive) scrappage schemes speed limits ► impact assessments

Data in TREMOVE transport activity data (vkm, pkm, tkm) detailed vehicle stock (cars, trucks, …) occupancy rates + load factors usage patterns emission factors (COPERT IV) vehicle speeds various non-official sources and estimates

TREMOVE structure - modules Consumer utility, Producer costs & Tax revenues Speed & Load Fuel Transport Vehicle Traffic Stock consumption demand stock demand structure and emissions module turnover External Welfare cost module module Costs module Usage activity by vkm by type emissions by vehicle type mode and tech TREMOVE model structure and components Demand module Vehicle stock module Usage cost module Emission module Welfare module Transport demand module: estimates changes in transport activity and modal choice given new transport costs - “generalized costs (producer price, tax/subsidy, time cost) per km” (usage cost) > pkm, tkm, and vkm for each mode and vehicle category (i.e. cars, trucks, …) Vehicle stock turnover module: describes how changes in transport activities and/or changes in vehicle price structure influence the size of vehicle fleet and its distribution into ages and types (i.e. diesel small cars,..) => the total fleet and vkm for each year according to vehicle type, technologies (Euro) and age. Fuel consumption and emissions module : calculates fuel consumption, GHG and air pollutant emissions (“COPERT” equations), based on the structure of the vehicle stock, the number of kilometres driven by each vehicle type and the driving conditions. Usage Stock structure Life cycle emissions module Usage Fuel consumption Cost

We need vehicle-km for each: Fuel type Vehicle category Vehicle type [example]

In addition, we need v-km for each technology (affect air pollutant emissions). [example petrol cars] And also v-km by age of vehicle [example motorbikes]

Elements and dimension of TREMOVE model Road measurement systems – vehicle count systems – can provide some aggregated data in dimensions “REGION” + “PERIOD” + “NETWORK” Annual inspection checks for dimensions “vehicle age” + “vehicle category” + “vehicle type” + “vehicle technology” Statistical surveys (questionnaires) can tackle other dimensions. We need to combine all sources to get in the complete matrix. Data + boundary condition + non-linear programming optimalization methods => semi-automated procedure to fill in all dimensions and data. Calibration check with reported fuel consumption in the energy balances.

How emissions are calculated? vehicle stock module produces figures on the vehicle-km for road transport disaggregated according to: Vehicle type Fuel type Vehicle technology & Vehicle age Network (urban road, rural road, motorway) Region (metropolitan, other cities, non urban) Period of day (peak or off-peak) For each of these disaggregated vehicle-km, TREMOVE calculates emissions using the COPERT methodology. http://lat.eng.auth.gr/copert/ COPERT 4 is an MS Windows software program aiming at the calculation of air pollutant emissions from road transport. The technical development of COPERT is financed by the European Environment Agency , in the framework of the activities of the European Topic Centre on Air and Climate Change. Since 2007, the European Commission's Joint Research Centre has been coordinating the further scientific development of the model. In principle, COPERT has been developed for use from the National Experts to estimate emissions from road transport to be included in official annual national inventories. However, it is available and free for use in any other research, scientific and academic applications. The COPERT 4 methodology is also part of the EMEP/CORINAIR Emission Inventory Guidebook. The Guidebook, developed by the UNECE Task Force on Emissions Inventories and Projections, is intended to support reporting under the UNECE Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution and the EU directive on national emission ceilings. The COPERT 4 methodology is fully consistent with the Road Transport chapter of the Guidebook. The use of a software tool to calculate road transport emissions allows for a transparent and standardized, hence consistent and comparable data collecting and emissions reporting procedure, in accordance with the requirements of international conventions and protocols and EU legislation.

Why additional data are needed? need to know more about fuel specific patterns: gasoline vs. diesel driving patterns electric vehicles plug-in hybrids as well as country specific patterns: ownership rates: high vs. low public transport: good vs. bad congestion: high vs. low New fuel as part of the low carbon strategy – electricity – in pure electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids.

Conclusions full support to proposal on vkm data collection even more details needed for our modelling Requested data will allow: better air pollution emissions estimates improved CO2/GHG emissions estimates solid economic analysis with time series: superior modal shift analysis

marek.sturc@ec.europa.eu http://ec.europa.eu/climateaction/ THANK YOU! marek.sturc@ec.europa.eu http://ec.europa.eu/climateaction/

COPERT methodology all major air pollutants: CO, NOX, VOC, PM, NH3, SO2, heavy metals greenhouse gas emissions: CO2, N2O, CH4 Emissions from various sources: thermally stabilized engine operation (hot emissions) engine start from ambient temperature (cold-start and warming-up effects) NMVOC emissions due to fuel evaporation non-exhaust PM emissions from tyre and break wear COPERT 4 estimates emissions of all major air pollutants (CO, NOx, VOC, PM, NH3, SO2, heavy metals) produced by different vehicle categories (passenger cars, light duty vehicles, heavy duty vehicles, mopeds and motorcycles) as well as greenhouse gas emissions (CO2, N2O, CH4). The programme also provides speciation for NO/NO2, elemental carbon and organic matter of PM and non-methane VOCs, including PAHs and POPs. Emissions estimated are distinguished in three sources: Emissions produced during thermally stabilized engine operation (hot emissions), emissions occurring during engine start from ambient temperature (cold-start and warming-up effects) and NMVOC emissions due to fuel evaporation. Non-exhaust PM emissions from tyre and break wear are also included. The total emissions are calculated as a product of activity data provided by the user and speed-dependent emission factors calculated by the software.