Effects of Water Temperature (Year), Sex and Domestication On In-river Migration and Survival of Adult Upper Yakima River Spring Chinook C. Knudsen,

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Presentation transcript:

Effects of Water Temperature (Year), Sex and Domestication On In-river Migration and Survival of Adult Upper Yakima River Spring Chinook C. Knudsen, B. Bosch, M. Johnston, C. Stockton and C. Strom

© Ivan Alvarado / Reuters

Objectives: RY’s 2011 to 2015 NOAA Ocean Predictors, and Bonneville and Prosser (Kiona) water temperatures Part 1 - PIT tagged Fish Trends in arrival timing at Bonneville, McNary and Prosser Trends in migration rates from Bonneville to McNary and Prosser dams Bonneville to Prosser Survival Rates Part 2 – Pre-spawning Mortality Logistic Regression to estimate effects of Year, Origin, Sex, and Roza Passage Date on pre-spawning mortality at CESRF

Year NOAA time series plots of large-scale atmospheric forcing and local physical and biological indicators from 2011 - 2015. (Taken from: https://www.nwfsc.noaa.gov/research/divisions/fe/estuarine/oeip/time-series-plots.cfm.)

Bonneville Dam McNary Dam Prosser Dam Roza Dam

Month Return Year 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Mean Monthly Temp (oC) Mean Monthly Temperature (oC) Bonneville 25 20 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 Return Year Mean Monthly Temp (oC) 15 10 May June July Aug Month

Passage Date Bonneville Cumulative Proportion of CESRF PIT tags Passing Bonneville By Return Year 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 Mean 2001-2015 Cumulative Proportion at Bonneville 0.5 2011 0.4 2012 0.3 2013 2014 0.2 2015 0.1 0.0 Passage Date Bonneville

a a a a,b c Bonneville Arrival By Return Year Return Year 200 150 Bonneville Arrival Date (julian) a a a 100 a,b c Lower case letters indicate means significantly different at p<0.01 in ANOVA assuming unequal variances. 50 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Return Year

Return Year Mean Travel Time (+1 SE) Bonneville-to-McNary (days) a b 11 a b c 9 Bonn-to-McNary (days) 7 70% travel time other years on average 5 Lower case letters indicate means significantly different at p<0.001in ANOVA assuming unequal variances. 3 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Return Year

McNary-to-Prosser (days) Travel Time McNary-to-Prosser Distributions 150 100 McNary-to-Prosser (days) 50 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Return Year

>2 times longer travel Mean McNary-to-Prosser Travel Time (+1 se) 16 2015 >2 times longer travel time on average 14 12 c 10 a a McNary-to-Prosser (days) a,b 8 b 6 Lower case letters indicate means significantly different at p<0.05 in ANOVA assuming unequal variances. 4 2 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Return Year

Prosser Passage Date (julian) 280 3/20 10/6 8/27 7/18 6/8 4/29 240 ~50 day Gap 200 Prosser Passage (julian) 160 120 80 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Return Year

Maximum Daily Water Temp (oC) at Kiona 2012-2015 4/9 5/29 7/18 9/6 10/26 2012 2013 2014 2015 5 15 25 35 20 30 10 Max Daily Water Temp (oC) 150 200 250 300 Julian Date

Yakima Thermal Block Prosser Dam Kiona

Max Daily Temperature at Kiona (oC) 1.0 0.8 Max Daily Temperature Logistic Model p<0.001 0.6 Pr(Passing Prosser) 0.4 0.2 0.0 13 16 18 21 24 27 29 Max Daily Temperature at Kiona (oC)

Estimated Probabilities of Passing Prosser Based on Max Daily Temp When Passing Kiona 3/30 4/29 5/29 6/28 1.0 32 0.9 0.8 27 0.7 0.6 21 Prob(Passing Prosser) Max Daily Temp (○C) 0.5 0.4 16 0.3 0.2 10 0.1 4 90 120 150 180 Estimated Passage date Kiona

𝑆𝑢𝑟𝑣𝑖𝑎𝑙 𝐵𝑜𝑛𝑛−𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑠𝑠𝑒𝑟= 𝑃𝐼𝑇 𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑠𝑠𝑒𝑟 /(PIT Bonneville*[1-Harv]) Mean 2011-2014 = 0.890 Difference=0.209

Sockeye Salmon Survival from Bonneville to McNary Figure 7. Sockeye salmon survival from Bonneville to McNary Dam by run grouping determined by quartiles (i.e., first 25% of the run (1), 26%–50% of the run (2), etc.). (Taken from DeHart. 2015. Fish Passage Center Memo 159-15)

Logistic Regression Model Mortality ~ Roza Collection Date + Sex + Origin + Return Year Estimate Std. Err z value Pr(>|z|) (Intercept) -6.2956 0.4274 -14.7307 <0.0001 Roza Collec. Date 0.0216 0.0021 10.2545 Female vs Jack 1.1889 0.1595 7.4520 Female vs Male 0.3676 0.1367 2.6898 0.0072 2011 vs 2012 -1.4915 0.3115 -4.7886 2011 vs 2013 0.4966 0.1812 2.7411 0.0061 2011 vs 2014 0.6928 0.1898 3.6494 0.0003 2011 vs 2015 1.7091 0.1743 9.8033 NO vs SH -0.2370 0.1669 -1.4203 0.1555 SH vs HC -0.7660 0.1885 -4.0630 0.0001 NO vs HC 0.5290 0.1494 3.5412 0.0004

Pr(Mortality) Roza Date (julian) Pr(>|z|) Female vs Jack <0.0001 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 Pr(>|z|) Female vs Jack <0.0001 Female vs Male 0.0072 Females Jacks Sex Males Pr(Mortality) Roza Date (julian)

Pr(Mortality) Roza Date (julian) Pr(>|z|) 2011 vs 2012 <0.0001 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Pr(>|z|) 2011 vs 2012 <0.0001 2011 vs 2013 0.0061 2011 vs 2014 0.0003 2011 vs 2015

Pr(Mortality) Roza Date (julian) Pr(>|z|) NO vs SH 0.1555 SH vs HC 0.4 NO SH HC Pr(>|z|) NO vs SH 0.1555 SH vs HC 0.0001 NO vs HC 0.0004 0.3 Pr(Mortality) 0.2 0.1 0.0 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 Roza Date (julian)

Summary: PIT tagged fish 2015 was an anomalous year in many ways due in large part to higher ocean and freshwater temperatures, but was also likely flow related issues (not looked at here). Adult returns in 2015: Arrived significantly earlier at Bonneville Migrated from Bonneville to McNary at significantly faster rates Were then blocked by a thermal barrier at the mouth of the Yakima R. which delayed fish passage and appeared to stop passage completely from mid-May to August Showed significantly longer McNary-to-Prosser Travel Times Experienced 21% higher mortality from Bonneville to Prosser

Summary: Fish held at CESRF Examining the Pre-Spawning Mortality rates of fish held at CESRF using logistic regression analysis we found that: Sex: Jacks had the highest mortality rates followed by Males and then Females Return Year: RY 2015 had the highest mortality rates and 2012 the lowest with the order of RY’s following closely the overall temperature profiles for each RY Origin: HC fish had the highest mortality rates followed by NO and then SH fish. HC fish were significantly higher than NO and, more importantly, SH fish demonstrating a significant domestication effect across the 5 RY’s.

Summary: Fish held at CESRF Origin: If fish held at CESRF reflect the rates of pre-spawning mortality on the spawning grounds, then the supplemented fish (SH) are likely experiencing survival rates similar to NO fish in the wild.

Questions?