Elections and Voting Behavior Chapter 10

How American Elections Work Three types of elections: Select party nominees (primary elections) Select officeholders (general elections) Select options on specific policies Referendum: state-level method of direct legislation that gives voters a chance to approve proposed legislation or constitutional amendment Initiative petition: process permitted in some states whereby voters may put proposed changes in the state constitution to a vote, given a sufficient number of signatures

A Tale of Three Elections 1800: The First Electoral Transition of Power No primaries, no conventions, no speeches, newspapers were very partisan with no attempt to be objective. Incumbent John Adams, Challenger Thomas Jefferson. Campaigns focused not on voters but on state legislatures who chose electors. After many votes in the House, Jefferson won the election. Significance: 1st peaceful transfer of power between parties via the electoral process in world history.

A Tale of Three Elections 1896: A Bitter Fight over Economic Interests By 1896, national nominating conventions were well established. The election fought primarily over economic issues. Bryan broke with tradition and actively campaigned in person, traveling through 26 states. McKinley ran a “front- porch campaign” from his home in Ohio, and managed to label the Democrats as the party of depression. Significance: The Republicans won overwhelmingly in the industrial Northeast and Midwest, and became firmly entrenched as the nation’s majority party for the next several decades. (until the New Deal era)

2000 Presidential Election: Memorable Finish Because Bush’s lead over Gore in the initial count was less than one-tenth of one percent, Florida law mandated an automatic recount. Ultimately, with the margin between Bush and Gore down to 537 votes, the election hinged on whether or not the “undervotes” (ballots that showed no vote for president) would be examined by hand or not.

As with any legal dispute, the issue ended up in the courts, which played a pivotal role in presidential election for the first time ever. Bush v. Gore (2000): the U.S. Supreme Court overruled the Florida Supreme Court and held that although a recount was legal, the same precise standards for evaluating ballots would have to be applied in all counties. AND, most importantly, the court ruled that there was not enough time to recount all of the ballots in that fashion by the time the electoral college was to cast its votes.

A Tale of Three Elections 2004: The Ratification of a Polarizing Presidency George W. Bush became the fourth Republican since McKinley to win a second term. The intensity of the election was in part due to the controversy of the 2000 election. The 2004 campaign was characterized by negative campaigning. Leadership of the War on Terrorism and “moral values” proved to be key issues.

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Whether to Vote: A Citizen’s First Choice Suffrage: the legal right to vote Extended to African-Americans by the Fifteenth Amendment Extended to Women by the Nineteenth Amendment Extended to people over 18 years of age by the Twenty-Sixth Amendment

Its common to hear people in public life say, “Vote any way you want, but VOTE!” Do people in an election campaign organization really want to increase voter turnout OR are they interested in types of people who they think will vote for their party or candidate? Are “get out the vote” campaigns geared primarily to a party’s (or candidate’s) supporters?

Whether to Vote: A Citizen’s First Choice Deciding Whether to Vote U.S. has low voter turnout More likely to be struck by lightening during your lifetime than to participate in an election decided by 1 vote. SO, why vote? What is the cost of voting? Economist Anthony Downs: Why would a rational person ever decide to vote? Those who see clear differences between parties are likely to vote. Those who see the policies of one party benefitting them more than the policies of the other party If indifferent, then one may rationally abstain from voting.

Political Efficacy: the belief that one’s political participation really matters Civic Duty: the belief that in order to support democratic government, a citizen should always vote. Is it reasonable for a voter to look at personality and “character” traits as a basis for judging candidates for public office?

How Much Is Your Vote Worth? Pearson Education, Inc., Longman © 2008

Whether to Vote: A Citizen’s First Choice

Whether to Vote: A Citizen’s First Choice Registering To Vote Voter Registration: a system adopted by the states that requires voters to register well in advance of the election day Registration procedures differ by state. Motor Voter Act: passed in 1993, requires states to permit people to register to vote when they apply for their driver’s license

Who Votes? Pearson Education, Inc., Longman © 2008

Who Votes? Pearson Education, Inc., Longman © 2008

Who Votes? Pearson Education, Inc., Longman © 2008

Pearson Education, Inc., Longman © 2008

Whether to Vote: A Citizen’s First Choice Who Votes? Education: More education = more likely to vote. Most important factor Age: Older = more likely to vote Race: Caucasian = more likely to vote. BUT, other ethnicities are higher with comparable education Gender: Female = more likely to vote

Whether to Vote: A Citizen’s First Choice Who Votes? (continued) Marital Status: Married = more likely to vote Union Membership: Union member = more likely to vote Traits are cumulative - possessing several adds up

Whether to Vote: A Citizen’s First Choice

If you could have voted in the 2008 presidential election, who would you have voted for? Why? Voting Rights Timeline: white, male property owners,15th, 19th, and 26th Amendments Why do you get the right to vote? What responsibilities come with the right to vote? What happens if people don’t live up to those responsibilities?

Proposed 28th Amendment to the Constitution: The right of citizens of the United States to vote in any primary or other election for President or Vice President may be denied upon failure of a civic literacy test. Why should an uninformed vote cancel out an informed vote?

Americans vote far more often than other countries More reason for why voter turnout in the U.S. is so low compared to other democratic countries: Americans vote far more often than other countries One elected official for every 442 citizens. Choices offered by Americans are not a stark as in other countries Most democratic nations have multi-party systems

How Americans Vote: Explaining Citizens’ Decisions Mandate Theory of Elections The idea that the winning candidate has a mandate from the people to carry out his or her platforms and politics Politicians like the theory better than political scientists do.

How Americans Vote: Explaining Citizens’ Decisions Party Identification People still generally vote for a party they agree with. With the rise of candidate-centered politics, parties’ hold on voters declined in the 1960s and 1970s. Many more voters make an individual voting decision and are up for grabs each election, (so- called floating voters).

How Americans Vote: Explaining Citizens’ Decisions Candidate Evaluations: How Americans See the Candidates Candidates want a good visual image. Especially on dimensions of integrity, reliability, and competence Personality plays a role in vote choice, especially if a candidate is perceived to be incompetent or dishonest.

How Americans Vote: Explaining Citizens’ Decisions Policy Voting Basing your vote choice on issue preferences and where the candidates stand on policy issues Policy voting may occur if : Voters know where they and the candidates stand on issues and see differences between candidates Unlikely to occur because: Candidates can be ambiguous on the issues. Media tend to focus on the “horse race” not issues. Today candidates are forced to take a clear stand in the party primaries increasing chances for policy voting.

The Last Battle: The Electoral College Electoral college actually elects the president Founders wanted him chosen by the elite of the country, not directly by the people. Technology of the time not conducive to popular vote. Decision as to how the electors are chosen left up to the states. Winner-Take-All System gives bigger emphasis to more populated states

The Last Battle: The Electoral College Campaign Strategy 2008 Video How it works today: Each state has as many votes as it does Representatives and Senators. Winner of popular vote typically gets all the Electoral College votes for that state Electors meet in December, votes are reported by the vice president in January If no candidate gets a majority (270 votes), the House of Representatives votes for president, with each state casting one vote.

270 to Win

2012 Election Results by County

Popular vote 1st counted in 1824 In 4 elections the winner of the Electoral College did not win the popular vote. 1824 John Quincy Adams v. Andrew Jackson 1876 Rutherford B. Hayes v. Samuel Tilden 1888 Benjamin Harrison v. Grover Cleveland 2000 George W. Bush v. Al Gore

Understanding Elections and Voting Behavior Democracy and Elections Candidates who vow to continue popular policies are more likely to win elections. The economy is a good predictor of reelection of an incumbent. Retrospective voting: voters cast a vote based on what a candidate has done for them lately Those who feel worse off are likely to vote against incumbents. Bad economies make politicians nervous. The Republicans are using a Retrospective strategy by asking “Are you better off than you were 4 years ago?”

Understanding Elections and Voting Behavior Elections and the Scope of Government Elections generally support government policies and power. Voters feel they are sending a message to government to accomplish something Thus, the government expands to fill the needs of the voters.

Summary Voters make two basic decisions at election time: Whether to vote Who to vote for Party identification, candidate evaluations, and policy positions drive vote choice. Elections are fundamental to a democracy.