Confidence and Causality Niels van Miltenburg Niels.vanmiltenburg@phil.uu.nl

Presentation Outline

Presentation Outline Introduce von Wright’s ideas with the help of an example of an experiment

Presentation Outline Introduce von Wright’s ideas with the help of an example of an experiment Distinguish between von Wright’s “strong” and “weak” positions

Presentation Outline Introduce von Wright’s ideas with the help of an example of an experiment Distinguish between von Wright’s “strong” and “weak” positions Argue that the “weak” position is the most interesting position

Magnifying Glass Example

Magnifying Glass Example Does the intervention need to be a human action?

Magnifying Glass Example Does the intervention need to be a human action? Von Wright: “Yes”

Magnifying Glass Example Does the intervention need to be a human action? Von Wright: “Yes” What makes action so special?

Magnifying Glass Example Does the intervention need to be a human action? Von Wright: “Yes” What makes action so special? Von Wright: There is a conceptual connection between the concepts of causation and action

Counterfactual Element in Action

Counterfactual Element in Action Certain changes in nature would not have occurred had we not produced them

Counterfactual Element in Action Certain changes in nature would not have occurred had we not produced them We can only act because we are confident that the world remains fairly stable

Strong vs Weak

Strong vs Weak Strong: ‘p causes q’ means that we could produce q by bringing about p

Strong vs Weak Strong: ‘p causes q’ means that we could produce q by bringing about p Weak: We distinguish between causal relations and accidental regularities by using the notion of action, which is conceptually connected with the notion of causation

“Causalaria”

“Causalaria”

“Causalaria”

“Causalaria”

“Causalaria” A B

Hume Given the fact that we can only observe regularly succeeding events, why do we see them as causally linked?

Confidence and Knowledge

Confidence and Knowledge Confidence is intrinsic to our actions and constitutes our ability to act

Confidence and Knowledge Confidence is intrinsic to our actions and constitutes our ability to act Analogy with Anscombe’s ‘knowledge without observation’

Thanks for Listening