The Race for the Presidency

“I know of any number of people who I think would make good presidents, even great presidents, who are deterred from running [for the office] by the torture [that] the candidates are obliged to put themselves through” Former Speaker of the House Thomas Foley (D-Washington), 1988

“To run for President, you have to have an enormous passion “To run for President, you have to have an enormous passion. You have to want it with a compelling urgency. You have to be prepared to sacrifice all kinds of things - financial security, your privacy, family well-being - on the altar of that desire, and even then the odds will be profoundly against you.”

To Win the Presidency Must win two races The Primary Election (for your party’s nomination) The General Election (party vs party)

Step 1: the Primary Election (aka the Nomination Process) Someone interested in running for office first explores the possibility of political and financial support Establish a political action committee (PAC) In national elections, the RNC and DNC sometimes seek out potential candidates in specific districts for state and national elections

Step 1: the Primary Election (aka the Nomination Process) Goal: Win the majority of delegates’ support (at the national nominating convention) by winning the popular vote in individual state primaries and caucuses

The Nomination Game: Caucuses and Primaries Caucus: meetings of state party leaders for selecting delegates to the national convention A handful of states use a caucus—open to all voters who are registered with a party Iowa Primary: elections in which voters in a state vote for a nominee (or delegates pledged to the nominee) Open or closed Most states use the primary system NH

The Nomination Game The Nomination Process explained 2016 Primary Election Candidates

The Nomination Game Frontloading: states prefer to hold primaries and caucuses early Why? Who benefits from frontloading? The “front runner” Those who can raise early money

Criticisms of the Primary and Caucus System? Disproportionate attention goes to early states… usually (see 2008) Do the “best” candidates run? Money plays too big of a role Participation is low and unrepresentative of population Too much power to the media

McGovern-Fraser Commission (1969-1972) What events led to the McGovern-Fraser Commission? What changes did the commission make? What impact did it have on nominations? Ended the old boss system of choosing nominees Helped create the modern primary system

Step 2: The General Election Once candidates receive their party’s nomination, it’s on to the general election! The candidate with the most electoral college votes wins the presidency How does the EC work?

The Electoral College How it works today: Each state’s EC votes = # of Representatives + Senators. Typically follows a “winner take all” format for each state (exceptions: Nebraska and Maine) If no candidate gets a majority (270 votes), the House of Representatives votes for president, with each state casting one vote.

The Electoral College Winner-Take-All system affects strategy: Winner of popular vote typically gets all the Electoral College votes for that state Heavy campaigning, money and time spent in competitive states, large states and “swing” states Choice of VP influenced by WTA system… how? Hinders third parties… why? First Past the Post (video)

The Electoral College: Still in Session Why does it remain? History/tradition Would require a constitutional amendment (not easy to do) Two party system likes it

Suggestions for Reform Replace the WTA system with… The ME and NE model: two senatorial votes goes to statewide winner and electoral votes go to winners of Congressional districts Proportional representation The Alternative Vote Keep EC, but… Award a bonus to the nationwide vote winner Others?