LDC graduation and development goals Rolf Traeger Chief, LDC Section UNCTAD Assessing the progress of LDCs towards SDGs Short courses for Permanent Missions in Geneva 13 April 2018

This presentation Graduation as a development goal History and prospects of graduation Impact of graduation on LDC-specific development goals

1. Graduation as a development goal IPoA (2011) For the 1st time, graduation as a development goals para.28: “aim of enabling half the number of least developed countries to meet the criteria for graduation by 2020”

1. Graduation as a development goal Graduation Issue discussed in: What has been the track record of graduation?

The history of graduation 2. History and prospects of graduation The history of graduation 1970s 1980s 1990s ⇨ Botswana (1994) 2000s ⇨ Cabo Verde (2007) 2010s ⇨ Maldives (Maldives), Samoa (2014), Equatorial Guinea (2017)

Prospects of graduation 2. History and prospects of graduation Prospects of graduation 2021 – 2024 ⇨ Angola (2021) Bangladesh Bhutan Kiribati Lao PDR Myanmar Nepal S Tome & Principe Solomon Islands Timor Leste Tuvalu 11 countries !

2. History and prospects of graduation Consequences of these graduation cases Medium term ⇨ IPoA graduation target unlikely to be met Long term ⇨ Composition and characteristics of LDC group will change ⇨ What are the consequences of this?

Consequences of these graduation cases 2. History and prospects of graduation Consequences of these graduation cases The LDC group will shrink… No. of LDCs: 47 ➘ 36 ( 23%) …but will still host significant population… Population: 1,025 million in 2018 883 million in 2025 ( to 11 % world)

Consequences of these graduation cases … and become poorer 2. History and prospects of graduation Consequences of these graduation cases … and become poorer  46%  26%

3. Impact of graduation on LDC-specific development goals Does the changing composition of the LDC group have an impact on (other) development goals?

3. Impact of graduation on LDC-specific development goals “Individual” targets SDG 8.1 – at least 7% p.a. growth SDG 9.2 – double industry share in GDP  No impact of graduation on remaining LDCs

3. Impact of graduation on LDC-specific development goals “Collective” targets SDG 17.11 – double LDCs’ share of global exports by 2020 LDC-49’s share: 1.05% (2011)  target: 2.1% But since then 2 countries have graduated

3. Impact of graduation on LDC-specific development goals “Collective” targets Options Keep as goal doubling the share of the smaller group LDC-47’s share: 0.97% (2011)  target: 1.94% Target unlikely to be met by 2020 ⇨ Establish new date LDC-36’s share: 0.47% (2011)  target: 0.94%

3. Impact of graduation on LDC-specific development goals “ Collective ” targets SDG 17.2 – “Developed countries to implement fully their official development assistance commitments, including the commitment by many developed countries to achieve the target of 0.7 per cent of gross national income for official development assistance (ODA/GNI) to developing countries and 0.15 to 0.20 per cent of ODA/GNI to least developed countries; ODA providers are encouraged to consider setting a target to provide at least 0.20 per cent of ODA/GNI to least developed countries”

3. Impact of graduation on LDC-specific development goals “Collective” targets Target not met so far, except for 5 countries (2017) BUT remaining LDCs are even more in need of ODA than graduated countries Options Keep same quantitative targets independently of changing composition of LDC group Focus on higher target (20% of donor GNI) Raise ODA target to LDCs to half of total ODA

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